{"id":950,"date":"2011-03-11T09:28:09","date_gmt":"2011-03-11T09:28:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=950"},"modified":"2011-04-07T16:54:02","modified_gmt":"2011-04-07T16:54:02","slug":"stop-dolare-sa-viac-tlacit-nebudu-komentar-dna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/stop-dolare-sa-viac-tlacit-nebudu-komentar-dna\/","title":{"rendered":"Stop. Dol\u00e1re sa viac tla\u010di\u0165 nebud\u00fa (koment\u00e1r d\u0148a)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fond Pimco sa zbavil v\u0161etk\u00fdch americk\u00fdch dlhopisov. Asi vedel, pre\u010do to rob\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

U\u017e na za\u010diatku roka sme hovorili, \u017ee s ve\u013ekou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou bude \u010fal\u0161ie kolo kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania (QE3) hlavnou udalos\u0165ou roka 2011. St\u00e1le nikto nevie, \u010di QE3 bude alebo nebude, no v ka\u017edom pr\u00edpade jeho vyhl\u00e1senie alebo absencia trhy zasiahne ve\u013emi v\u00fdrazne.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 sa v\u0161ak, \u017ee nateraz sa misky v\u00e1h priklonili na stranu monet\u00e1rnej stabiliz\u00e1cie. Znamen\u00e1 to iba jedno \u2013 prich\u00e1dza v\u00fdpredaj.<\/p>\n

Cena akt\u00edv je funkciou bilancie Fedu<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010co je d\u00f4vodom t\u00fdchto \u00favah? V\u00a0prvom\u00a0rade je to v\u00fdpredaj americk\u00fdch dlhopisov po tom, ako Fed pri\u0161iel s QE2. Trhy hodnotia t\u00fato politiku ako obrovsk\u00e9 riziko a snahu americkej vl\u00e1dy monetizova\u0165 svoj dlh. \u010ealej je to obrovsk\u00fd n\u00e1rast komoditn\u00fdch cien, za ktor\u00e9 je Fed nepriamo zodpovedn\u00fd. Z\u00e1sobovanie b\u00e1nk bezplatn\u00fdm kapit\u00e1lom a rast ich \u0161pekul\u00e1ci\u00ed, \u010di oslabovanie dol\u00e1ra sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa siln\u00fd n\u00e1rast cien komod\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Rast ceny kukurice o 100% alebo ropa nad \u00farov\u0148ou $100 sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa, \u017ee svet sa st\u00e1va v\u00fdrazne nestabiln\u00fdm. Mnoh\u00ed obvi\u0148uj\u00fa pr\u00e1ve politiku Fedu za spustenie revol\u00facie v arabskom svete. A pr\u00e1ve tamoj\u0161ie revol\u00facie m\u00f4\u017eu uzavrie\u0165 koh\u00fatik ropy do USA. Prilo\u017een\u00fd graf ukazuje, \u017ee rast\u00a0svetov\u00fdch\u00a0akt\u00edv je iba funkciou ve\u013ekosti bilancie Fedu:<\/p>\n

\"komentar-110310-2\"<\/p>\n

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Dlhopisov\u00fd fond bez dlhopisov<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny komod\u00edt sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie v\u00fddavky na z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 tovary a t\u00fdm ost\u00e1va dom\u00e1cnostiam menej prostriedkov na\u00a0 spotrebu. Ekonomick\u00fd rast tak kles\u00e1. Fed preto svojou politikou sp\u00f4sobuje opak toho, \u010do zam\u00fd\u0161\u013ea (\u010do je mimochodom typick\u00e9 pre takmer ak\u00fako\u013evek hospod\u00e1rsku politiku). Politick\u00e9\u00a0tlaky\u00a0na opustenie experimentu kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania rast\u00fa. Av\u0161ak to, \u010di a kedy bude QE opusten\u00e9, nevie z n\u00e1s nikto. Vedie\u0165 by to v\u0161ak mohol jeden z najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00edch svetov\u00fdch investorov \u2013 Bill Gross.<\/p>\n

Bill Gross je \u0161\u00e9fom spolo\u010dnosti Pimco, \u010do je najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00edk s dlhopismi na svete a jeho dlhopisov\u00fdfond Total Return Fund (TRF) je najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm dlhopisov\u00fdm fondom. Respekt\u00edve bol. Janu\u00e1rov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee TRF zn\u00ed\u017eil dr\u017ebu americk\u00fdch dlhopisov na nulu.\u00a0Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed svetov\u00fd dlhopisov\u00fd fond nevlastn\u00ed ani jeden americk\u00fd dlhopis, \u010do je vec nev\u00eddan\u00e1. <\/em><\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea bilan\u010dnej sumy fondu z 28. febru\u00e1ra ve\u013ekos\u0165 akt\u00edv fondu predstavovala $237 mili\u00e1rd. Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu \u010das\u0165 akt\u00edv predstavovali hypotek\u00e1rne cenn\u00e9 papiere, po ktor\u00fdch nasledovala hotovos\u0165. Skuto\u010dne, n\u00e1rast hotovosti fondu je bezprecedentn\u00fd a presiahol \u00farove\u0148 $54 mili\u00e1rd. Detaily bilancie fondu TRF ukazuje prilo\u017een\u00fd obr\u00e1zok:<\/p>\n

\"komentar-110310-3\"<\/p>\n

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St\u00e1vka spolo\u010dnosti Pimco je obrovsk\u00e1. Americk\u00e9 dlhopisy menia na hotovos\u0165, \u010do znamen\u00e1, \u017ee prich\u00e1dzaj\u00fa o ich vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos. D\u00f4vodom m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 iba jeden \u2013 o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa rast \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb a tak aj v\u00fdpredaj dlhopisov. Dur\u00e1cia cel\u00e9ho ich portf\u00f3lia dosiahla najni\u017e\u0161iu hodnotu od decembra 2008. (\u010c\u00edtajte viac: Ako funguj\u00fa dlhopisy<\/em>). Pimco teda hr\u00e1 na n\u00e1rast \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb, minim\u00e1lne vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 1,5%, tvrdia insidersk\u00e9 zdroje.<\/p>\n

QE3 a pokles akt\u00edv<\/strong><\/p>\n

A \u010do je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 \u2013 Pimco m\u00e1 ve\u013emi dobr\u00e9 napojenie na Fed, a preto asi vie, \u010do rob\u00ed. Bola by chyba jeho strat\u00e9giu necha\u0165 nepov\u0161imnutou. Nikto nevie, \u010do bud\u00facnos\u0165 prinesie, no rozhodnutie spolo\u010dnosti Pimco nazna\u010duje, \u017ee QE3 nebude. A pr\u00e1ve zastavenie kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania by malo spusti\u0165 siln\u00fd v\u00fdpredaj akt\u00edv.<\/p>\n

David Rosenberg tvrd\u00ed: minul\u00fd rok medzi 23. apr\u00edlom a 27. augustom Fed nevykon\u00e1val\u00a0 \u017eiadne kvantitat\u00edvne uvo\u013e\u0148ovanie. Za t\u00fdchto nieko\u013eko mesiacov bez QE S&P poklesol z 1217 na 1064 (-12%), CRB komoditn\u00fd index poklesol\u00a0 z 279 na 267 (-10%),\u00a0 ropa poklesla z 84,30 na 75,20 no zlato nar\u00e1stlo z $1140 na $1235, VIX vzr\u00e1stol zo 16,6 na 24,5 (+46%), dol\u00e1r posilnili a s n\u00edm aj americk\u00e9 dlhopisy.<\/p>\n

Je teda zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee absencia QE by sp\u00f4sobila \u010fal\u0161\u00ed siln\u00fd v\u00fdpredaj na mnoh\u00fdch akt\u00edvach. Ten by mohol by\u0165\u00a0 e\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed ako po\u010das minul\u00e9ho roka, preto\u017ee ceny akt\u00edv odvtedy e\u0161te viac nar\u00e1stli. V\u00f4bec by nemuselo by\u0165 prekvapen\u00edm, keby by pri absenci\u00ed QE3 spadli ceny akci\u00ed a komod\u00edt do konca roka o viac ako 25%.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017enost\u00ed, ako tento potenci\u00e1lny prepad vyu\u017ei\u0165, je ve\u013ek\u00e9 mno\u017estvo. M\u00f4\u017eeme hovori\u0165 o nekryt\u00fdch kr\u00e1tkych poz\u00edci\u00e1ch na S&P500, DAXe, \u010di glob\u00e1lnych akci\u00e1ch. M\u00f4\u017eeme pred\u00e1va\u0165 priemyseln\u00e9 kovy ako me\u010f alebo zinok. Pr\u00e1ve\u00a0na me\u010f sme ned\u00e1vno poukazovali<\/em>, jej potenci\u00e1l je obrovsk\u00fd. Konzervat\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed investor m\u00f4\u017ee robi\u0165 p\u00e1rov\u00e9 obchody, napr\u00edklad pred\u00e1va\u0165 sektory, ktor\u00e9 po QE2 r\u00e1stli najviac a nakupova\u0165 sektory defenz\u00edvne. Rovnako m\u00f4\u017eeme robi\u0165 p\u00e1rov\u00e9 obchody na komodit\u00e1ch, \u010di dlhopisoch. Na forexe by hrozil siln\u00fd v\u00fdpredaj austr\u00e1lskeho dol\u00e1ra a \u010fal\u0161ie posilnenie jenu. Kr\u00e1tky obchod AUDCHF by mohol by\u0165 jeden z t\u00fdch zauj\u00edmavej\u0161\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Jednoducho pr\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00fdch strat\u00e9gi\u00ed bude viac ne\u017e dos\u0165. Av\u0161ak to, na \u010do by investor \u010di obchodn\u00edk nemal zab\u00fada\u0165, je, \u017ee fundament\u00e1lna my\u0161lienka nie je v\u0161etko. A\u017e\u00a0spr\u00e1vne\u00a0na\u010dasovanie vstupov je z\u00e1kladom \u00faspechu. A pr\u00e1ve preto treba d\u00f4sledne sledova\u0165 technick\u00fa anal\u00fdzu a \u010daka\u0165 na potvrdenie obratu na hlavn\u00fdch akt\u00edvach. A to m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 u\u017e ve\u013emi skoro…<\/p>\n

Autor: Ronald I\u017eip, analytik Trim Broker \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj:finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n

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\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fond Pimco sa zbavil v\u0161etk\u00fdch americk\u00fdch dlhopisov. Asi vedel, pre\u010do to rob\u00ed. U\u017e na za\u010diatku roka sme hovorili, \u017ee s ve\u013ekou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou bude \u010fal\u0161ie kolo kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania (QE3) hlavnou udalos\u0165ou … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=950"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":960,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/950\/revisions\/960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}