{"id":869,"date":"2011-03-04T10:34:17","date_gmt":"2011-03-04T10:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=869"},"modified":"2011-03-04T21:03:05","modified_gmt":"2011-03-04T21:03:05","slug":"trichet-sa-vymanil-z-pazurov-podozrenia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/trichet-sa-vymanil-z-pazurov-podozrenia\/","title":{"rendered":"Trichet sa vymanil z paz\u00farov podozrenia"},"content":{"rendered":"

ECB prekro\u010dila svoj tie\u0148 a uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee nevykon\u00e1va len politick\u00e9 po\u017eiadavky.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trhov\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"trichet\"Finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy s ve\u013ek\u00fdm nap\u00e4t\u00edm o\u010dak\u00e1vali <\/em>rozhodnutie ECB o \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzb\u00e1ch a hlavne nasledovn\u00fa tla\u010dov\u00fa besedu prezidenta ECB Tricheta. Trhy u\u017e nieko\u013eko t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148ov zapo\u010d\u00edtavali pr\u00edpadn\u00fa zmenu r\u00e9toriky ECB pod tlakominfla\u010dn\u00fdch riz\u00edk<\/em>.\u00a0Nazna\u010dili to koment\u00e1re niektor\u00fdch \u010dlenov ECB\u00a0 (Bini Smaghi, Mersch, Stark, Wellink), no st\u00e1le trhy vzh\u013eadom k in\u00fdm koment\u00e1rom centr\u00e1lnych bank\u00e1rov (Bernanke FED \u201e riziko obnovy ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu pretrv\u00e1va preto ej nutn\u00e9 udr\u017eova\u0165 stimuly\u201c a hlavne Kinga (BoE) \u201enavr\u0161ovanie sadzieb by som bral ako osobn\u00fa prehru\u201c) boli skeptick\u00e9 k mo\u017enosti v\u00fdraznej zmeny v\u00fdh\u013eadu ECB.<\/p>\n

Zmena v ECB<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prezident ECB Trichet v\u0161ak napriek ponechaniu \u00farokovej sadzby na nezmenenej \u00farovni 1% trhy prekvapil a naozaj pozit\u00edvne. Tvrdo kritizovan\u00fd Trichet a ECB, \u017ee napriek siln\u00fdm infla\u010dn\u00fdm rizik\u00e1m pod tlakom prehlbuj\u00faci sa fi\u0161k\u00e1lnej nestability kraj\u00edn PIGS (Portugalsko, \u00cdrsko, Gr\u00e9cko a \u0160panielsko) udr\u017eiava ne\u0161tandardn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroj menovej politiky (nadmern\u00e1 likvidita rizikov\u00e9mu\u00a0bankov\u00e9mu\u00a0sektoru a n\u00e1kup EURo dlhopisov kraj\u00edn PIGS), v\u00fdrazne zmenil v\u00fdh\u013ead menovej politiky ECB po\u010das zasadnutia vo Frankfurte.<\/p>\n

Trichetove \u00fadery<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

U\u017e prv\u00fd jeho koment\u00e1r \u201erisks to the outlook for price developments are on the upside<\/em>\u201c potvrdil, \u017ee ECB sa bor\u00ed s infla\u010dn\u00fdmi rizikami a nazna\u010dil doteraj\u0161iu zmenu jeho r\u00e9toriky. Nasledovn\u00fd koment\u00e1r \u201estrong vigilance is warranted<\/em>\u201c\u00a0 (pozorn\u00e9ho sledovania infl\u00e1cie) potvrdil jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l zmeny r\u00e9toriky pre menov\u00fa politiku ECB. Reakciou bol siln\u00fd odraz eura vo\u010di ostatn\u00fdm menov\u00fdm konkurentom. \u010co v\u0161ak nasledovalo, ne\u010dakal ani najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed eurooptimista na trhu.<\/p>\n

ECB zverejnila nov\u00e9 projekcie ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu, ktor\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00fa mierne zlep\u0161enie\u00a0 v\u00fdh\u013eadu pre najbli\u017e\u0161ie obdobie (pre\u00a0 rok 2011 nav\u0155\u0161ila projekcie HDP od 1.3% do 2.1%, pri\u010dom posledn\u00e9 decembrov\u00e9 boli na \u00farovni\u00a0 0.7% to 2.1%, pre rok zmenila v\u00fdh\u013ead na 0.8% a\u017e 2.8% z posledn\u00e9ho decembrov\u00e9ho 0.6% to 2.8%) \u010do trhy prijali s chladom. Ale zmena projekci\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00fdch riz\u00edk, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa k\u013e\u00fa\u010dom k smerovaniu menovej politiky ECB vyrazila dych ur\u010dite z decembrov\u00fdch projekci\u00ed infl\u00e1cie 2% Y\/Y pre rok 2011 nav\u0155\u0161ila ECB v\u00fdh\u013ead infl\u00e1cie na 2,6% Y\/Y, e\u0161te v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie zmeny nastali pre projekcie pre rok 2012\u00a0 \u00farovne 1% Y\/Y na \u00farove\u0148 2,4% Y\/Y. Tieto infla\u010dn\u00e9 d\u00e1ta tak potvrdili, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 nie s\u00fa v euroz\u00f3ne kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm efektom ale trval\u00fdm javom, na \u010do bude musie\u0165 ECB tvrdo a r\u00fdchlo reagova\u0165. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Sadzby sa nav\u0155\u0161ia a r\u00fdchlo<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Trhy tak za\u010dali zapo\u010d\u00edtava\u0165 pr\u00edpadn\u00fa zmenu menovej politiky ECB\u00a0 v podobe navr\u0161ovania sadzieb u\u017e po\u010das aktu\u00e1lneho roku, pritom ale e\u0161te nepoznali vrcholn\u00e9\u00a0\u010d\u00edslo\u00a0d\u0148a. Trichetov v\u00fdrok \u201em\u00f4\u017eeme zmeni\u0165 \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby u\u017e na bud\u00facom zasadnut\u00ed<\/strong><\/em>\u201c vyrazil trhom argumenty z r\u00fak o tom, kedy a ako bude ECB navr\u0161ova\u0165 sadzba a spustila sa spanil\u00e1 jazda na eure.<\/p>\n

Trichet dal jasne odpove\u010f trhom, \u017ee ECB je pripraven\u00e1 br\u00e1ni\u0165 svoj cie\u013e cenovej stability (infl\u00e1cia do 2% Y\/Y) a on ost\u00e1va na\u010falej str\u00e1\u017eca n\u00edzkej infl\u00e1cie. Jeho neskor\u0161ie koment\u00e1re, \u017ee pr\u00edpadn\u00e9 nav\u0155\u0161enie sadzieb neznamen\u00e1 za\u010diatok cyklu navr\u0161ovania sadzieb, trhy u\u017e preh\u013eadali, preto\u017ee tak jasn\u00fa odpove\u010f na zmenu menovej politiky ECB ne\u010dakal nikto. ECB dnes prekro\u010dila svoj tie\u0148 a vymanila sa z paz\u00farov podozrenia, \u017ee len vykon\u00e1va politick\u00e9 po\u017eiadavky.<\/p>\n

Zmena poh\u013eadu na euro<\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1verom\u00a0 mus\u00edme dnes \u201es\u0148a\u0165 klob\u00fak\u201c pred Trichetom a ECB, ktor\u00e1 sa zbavila n\u00e1lepky politickej centr\u00e1lnej banky a napriek siln\u00fdm fi\u0161k\u00e1lnym hrozb\u00e1m kraj\u00edn PIGS sa sna\u017e\u00ed is\u0165 cestou boja proti infl\u00e1cii a tlmenia prehlbuj\u00facich sa finan\u010dn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov v euroz\u00f3ne. Ak kon\u010d\u00ed volebn\u00e9 obdobie Trichetovi tento rok, tak ako jeden z m\u00e1la centr\u00e1lnych bank\u00e1rov by mohol\u00a0 od\u00eds\u0165 so vzt\u00fd\u010denou hlavou. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 tak podporila posilnenie eura (EURUSD 0,51%, EURJPY 1,15%, EURGBP 0m86%, EURCHF 1,30%,\u00a0zlato\u00a0v EUR\u00e1ch -1,42%), \u010do bude prv\u00fd efekt pri tlmen\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00fdch riz\u00edk prameniacich prim\u00e1rne z cien komod\u00edt. Z odsudzovan\u00e9ho outsidera finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhov eura v d\u00f4sledku hrozby rozpadu euroz\u00f3ny sa z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho poh\u013eadu\u00a0st\u00e1va favorit \u010d\u00edslo jedna.<\/p>\n

Graf\u00a0v\u00fdvoja\u00a0infl\u00e1cie v EU\u00a0 a z\u00e1kladnej \u00farokovej sadzby ECB<\/em><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"ecb030311c\"
\n<\/em><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Autor:\u00a0Val\u00e9r\u00a0Demjan, analytik Trim Broker \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB prekro\u010dila svoj tie\u0148 a uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee nevykon\u00e1va len politick\u00e9 po\u017eiadavky. Trhov\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie Finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy s ve\u013ek\u00fdm nap\u00e4t\u00edm o\u010dak\u00e1vali rozhodnutie ECB o \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzb\u00e1ch a hlavne nasledovn\u00fa tla\u010dov\u00fa besedu prezidenta … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/869"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=869"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":873,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/869\/revisions\/873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}