{"id":470,"date":"2011-01-31T14:08:09","date_gmt":"2011-01-31T14:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=470"},"modified":"2011-02-02T14:16:01","modified_gmt":"2011-02-02T14:16:01","slug":"dokedy-budu-usa-odolavat-dlhovej-krize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/dokedy-budu-usa-odolavat-dlhovej-krize\/","title":{"rendered":"Dokedy bud\u00fa USA odol\u00e1va\u0165 dlhovej kr\u00edze?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ot\u00e1zka neznie \u010di, ale kedy sa dlhov\u00e1 kr\u00edza roz\u0161\u00edri na druh\u00fa stranu Atlantiku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"BarackDlh Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov presiahol v decembri astronomick\u00fa m\u00e9tu 14 bili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov, a pohybuje sa na \u00farovni 95 % HDP, \u010do je viac ako v pr\u00edpade Portugalska, \u010di \u0160panielska, ktor\u00e9 v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti maj\u00fa obrovsk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my preda\u0165 svoj dlh. Americk\u00e9 dlhopisy sa v\u0161ak st\u00e1le te\u0161ia ve\u013ekej ob\u013eube a to aj napriek neochote americkej vl\u00e1dy \u0161etri\u0165.<\/p>\n

Obamova administrat\u00edva aj v roku 2011 chyst\u00e1 mas\u00edvne stimula\u010dn\u00e9 opatrenia, ktor\u00e9 pod\u013ea odhadov kongresu posun\u00fa deficit nahor o 1,5 bili\u00f3na dol\u00e1rov.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty tak bud\u00fa v roku 2011 jedinou z\u00e1padnou krajinou s dvojcifern\u00fdm deficitom, a od volebn\u00e9ho roku 2012 taktie\u017e nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00e9 \u0161krty.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj americk\u00e9ho dlhu za posledn\u00fdch 10 rokov<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Americk\u00fd<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 ekonomika v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti rastie takmer v\u00fdhradne v\u010faka dvom in\u0161tit\u00faci\u00e1m \u2013 vl\u00e1de a Fedu. Dlh americk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed pod\u013ea najnov\u0161\u00edch d\u00e1t Fedu dosahuje 13,4 bili\u00f3na dol\u00e1rov, \u010do je zhruba 91 % HDP, a americk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti pri minim\u00e1lnej kapacite sa viac zadl\u017eova\u0165 a neist\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch vyhliadkach svoje dlhy spl\u00e1caj\u00fa, ako sa zadl\u017euj\u00fa, \u010d\u00edm im logicky ost\u00e1va menej na spotrebu, americk\u00e1 ekonomika by teda mala klesa\u0165. Tu v\u0161ak prich\u00e1dzaj\u00fa na sc\u00e9nu spom\u00ednan\u00e9 dve in\u0161tit\u00facie, ktor\u00e9 americk\u00fdm dom\u00e1cnostiam prostriedky na spotrebu dod\u00e1vaj\u00fa.<\/p>\n

Priestor pre Fed na zni\u017eovanie dlhodob\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb, ktor\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00fa americk\u00fdm dom\u00e1cnostiam zni\u017eova\u0165 spl\u00e1tky refinancovan\u00edm star\u00e9ho dlhu, je minim\u00e1lny a tak Fed ako priamy stimul\u00e1tor spotreby americk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed do bud\u00facna odpad\u00e1, americk\u00fa ekonomiku tak bude m\u00f4c\u0165 dr\u017ea\u0165 nad vodou u\u017e len vl\u00e1da deficitn\u00fdm hospod\u00e1ren\u00edm. Politicky by teda v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zni\u017eovanie \u0161t\u00e1tnych v\u00fddavkov bola samovra\u017eda, a tak vych\u00e1dzam z toho, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da bude tla\u010di\u0165 na p\u00edlu, a\u017e k\u00fdm investorom praskn\u00fa nervy a za\u010dn\u00fa sa americk\u00e9ho dlhu zbavova\u0165.<\/p>\n

\u010co bude potom? Ke\u010f\u017ee Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty, podobne ako drviv\u00e1 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina kraj\u00edn star\u00e9 dlhy spl\u00e1ca nov\u00fdmi, ostan\u00fa len dve mo\u017enosti \u010fal\u0161ieho v\u00fdvoja po strate d\u00f4very v americk\u00fd dlh. Bu\u010f krajina vyhl\u00e1si bankrot, alebo americk\u00fd dlh sk\u00fapi jeho centr\u00e1lna banka. T\u00e1 ho s\u00edce nakupuje aj dnes, jej prim\u00e1rnym mot\u00edvom v\u0161ak je snaha dr\u017ea\u0165 n\u00edzke dlhodob\u00e9 \u00faro\u010denie, ktor\u00e9 sa odv\u00edja od v\u00fdnosov zo \u0161t\u00e1tnych dlhopisov, a nie ned\u00f4vera vo\u010di dlhu krajiny.<\/p>\n

Cesta bankrotu by polo\u017eila (nielen) americk\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00fd sektor, naopak cesta monetiz\u00e1cie v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iny americk\u00e9ho dlhu by e\u0161te viac zatla\u010dila na u\u017e v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti mimoriadne krehk\u00fa d\u00f4veru vo\u010di americkej mene. Jej kurz by na dev\u00edzov\u00fdch trhoch e\u0161te viac utrpel kv\u00f4li vlastn\u00edckej \u0161trukt\u00fare americk\u00e9ho dlhu, zo zhruba 9 bili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov vo\u013ene obchodovan\u00fdch dlhopisov (zvy\u0161n\u00fdch 5 bili\u00f3nov pov\u00e4\u010d\u0161ine predstavuj\u00fa pov\u00e4\u010d\u0161ine z\u00e1v\u00e4zky vo\u010di \u0161t\u00e1tnym penzijn\u00fdm fondom) a\u017e 4,3 bili\u00f3na z nich dr\u017eia zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investori, ktor\u00ed by s americk\u00fdmi dlhopismi pred\u00e1vali aj americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r. S poklesom k\u00fapnej sily dol\u00e1ra v zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch men\u00e1ch by sa pokojne mohla vytrati\u0165 aj d\u00f4vera Ameri\u010danom vo\u010di vlastnej mene, \u010do predstavuje hyperinfla\u010dn\u00fd scen\u00e1r.<\/p>\n

Kedy tieto probl\u00e9my prepukn\u00fa? Ka\u017ed\u00e1 tak\u00e1to vlna ned\u00f4very udalos\u0165 potrebuje sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u010d. Napr\u00edklad ned\u00f4veru na medzibankovom trhu a na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch v roku 2008 od\u0161tartoval krach Lehman Brothers, alebo ned\u00f4vera vo\u010di eur\u00f3pskemu dlhu sa za\u010dala spr\u00e1vou o fal\u0161ovan\u00ed \u0161tatist\u00edk v Gr\u00e9cku. Pre americk\u00fd dlh by t\u00fdmto sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u010dom ned\u00f4very mohlo by\u0165 napr\u00edklad od\u0148atie AAA ratingu na z\u00e1v\u00e4zky, \u010fal\u0161ia recesia v krajine, bankroty americk\u00fdch region\u00e1lnych samospr\u00e1v \u010di eskal\u00e1cia dlhovej kr\u00edzy v euroz\u00f3ne. Tak\u00e9to udalosti nie s\u00fa vyl\u00fa\u010den\u00e9 u\u017e v tomto roku, tak\u017ee roz\u0161\u00edrenie dlhovej kr\u00edzy na druh\u00fa stranu Atlantiku v\u00f4bec nie je hudbou vzdialenej bud\u00facnosti.<\/p>\n

Autor:\u00a0Kamil Boros\u00a0analytik X-Trade Brokers \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj: finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ot\u00e1zka neznie \u010di, ale kedy sa dlhov\u00e1 kr\u00edza roz\u0161\u00edri na druh\u00fa stranu Atlantiku. Dlh Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov presiahol v decembri astronomick\u00fa m\u00e9tu 14 bili\u00f3nov dol\u00e1rov, a pohybuje sa na \u00farovni 95 … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=470"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":477,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470\/revisions\/477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}