{"id":346,"date":"2011-01-26T16:44:22","date_gmt":"2011-01-26T16:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=346"},"modified":"2011-01-31T14:37:23","modified_gmt":"2011-01-31T14:37:23","slug":"eurobanka-je-politicka-sluzka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/eurobanka-je-politicka-sluzka\/","title":{"rendered":"Eurobanka je politick\u00e1 sl\u00fa\u017eka"},"content":{"rendered":"

Na\u0161a \u201enez\u00e1visl\u00e1\u201c ECB v pr\u00edpade probl\u00e9mov kryje euru a hlavne vl\u00e1dam a bank\u00e1m chrb\u00e1t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>No nek\u00fap to…<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Jean-ClaudePosledn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ceny EURUSD nazna\u010duje, \u017ee na euro svieti z bezobla\u010dnej oblohy slnko a\u00a0naopak dol\u00e1r je tla\u010den\u00fd do \u00fazadia, k stene.\u00a0Okrem v\u0161eobecn\u00e9ho a neuverite\u013ene trv\u00e1cneho \u201erisk on\u201c pr\u00edstupu na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch\u00a0euru pomohli rast\u00face n\u00e1zory na to, \u017ee Eur\u00f3pa by si svoje probl\u00e9my predsa len mohla da\u0165 do poriadku sp\u00f4sobom, ktor\u00fd by bol relat\u00edvne efekt\u00edvny a bezbolestn\u00fd. \u00a0Hoci jasi to osobne nemysl\u00edm, nie je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, \u010do je pravda a \u010do pravda nie je, ale to, ak\u00e9 je presved\u010denie v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iny trhu.<\/p>\n

ECB- politick\u00e1 sl\u00fa\u017eka<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Obchodn\u00edci vidia, \u017ee m\u00e1me na trhu \u00a0\u201enez\u00e1visl\u00fa\u201c ECB ( i ke\u010f rovnako „nez\u00e1visl\u00fd“ je aj FED), ktor\u00e1 v pr\u00edpade ak\u00fdchko\u013evek probl\u00e9mov kryje euru a hlavne vl\u00e1dam a bank\u00e1m chrb\u00e1t. Nemo\u017eno ju teda ozna\u010di\u0165 inak, ako politick\u00fa sl\u00fa\u017eku, presne v intenci\u00e1ch \u017eelan\u00ed franc\u00fazskych socialistov a intervencionistov, ktor\u00ed zakladali menov\u00fa \u00faniu \u2013teda Delorsa a Mitteranda (bli\u017e\u0161ie o tom p\u00ed\u0161e Philipp \u00a0Bagus vo svojej knihe Trag\u00e9dia eura).<\/p>\n

M\u00e1me tu snahu o \u010fal\u0161ie roz\u0161irovanie eurovalu a snahu o roz\u0161\u00edrenie jeho \u010dinnosti na n\u00e1kup dlhopisov zo sekund\u00e1rneho trhu (riziko sa tak prenesie z finan\u010dn\u00e9ho sektora na da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edkov). Toto tak z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska m\u00f4\u017ee pochopite\u013ene podporova\u0165 euro, ke\u010f\u017ee sa neust\u00e1le vytv\u00e1raj\u00fa a roz\u0161iruj\u00fa podmienky pre rast mor\u00e1lneho hazardu zo strany investorov.<\/p>\n

V plnej nahote<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Tento jav mor\u00e1lnej \u201ezh\u00fdralosti\u201c sme videli aj v pr\u00edpade v\u010deraj\u0161ej emisie dlhopisov eurovalu v objeme 5 mld. eursplatnos\u0165ou 5 rokov pri v\u00fdnose 2,892%. Hoci i\u0161li na odbyt ako \u201etepl\u00e9 ro\u017eky\u201c, \u010do v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina m\u00e9dii \u010di koment\u00e1rov nekriticky ozna\u010dilo ako \u00faspech, \u010di prejav d\u00f4very v euroz\u00f3nu, m\u00f4j poh\u013ead je diametr\u00e1lne odli\u0161n\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Euroval si napriek \u00a0AAA ratingu si dok\u00e1zal po\u017ei\u010da\u0165 s \u00farokom o 0,5% vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm ako Nemecko (a to ru\u010d\u00ed za tieto dlhopisy takmer cel\u00e1 euroz\u00f3na). I\u0161lo len o „bohapust\u00e9“ zneu\u017e\u00edvanie mor\u00e1lneho hazardu a vyu\u017e\u00edvanie dobr\u00e9ho pomeru riziko\/v\u00fdnos. No nek\u00fap to za tak\u00fdchto podmienok…<\/p>\n

Ako dlho to vydr\u017e\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska sa tak zd\u00e1, \u017ee \u201erisk on\u201c, euroval \u010di aktivita ECB sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa, \u017ee euro m\u00e1 v ruk\u00e1ch lep\u0161ie karty ako dol\u00e1r. Navy\u0161e existuje dnes riziko toho, \u017ee dol\u00e1r by mohol by\u0165 pod tlakom, pred zasadnut\u00edm FOMC, ktor\u00e9 by mohlo ma\u0165 pomerne skeptick\u00fd poh\u013ead na ekonomiku a Ben Bernanke by mohol nazna\u010di\u0165, \u017ee bude aj na\u010falej pokra\u010dova\u0165 v roben\u00ed toho, \u010do najlep\u0161ie vie- v tla\u010den\u00ed dol\u00e1rov.<\/p>\n

To vytv\u00e1ra tak riziko, \u017ee ak bud\u00fa \u00farovne nad 1,37 jasne zdolan\u00e9, otv\u00e1ra sa priestor k 1,3750 a v\u00fdh\u013eadom k 1,38. Najm\u00e4 ke\u010f prejav prezidenta Obamu o stave \u00fanie bol z politick\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska pln\u00fd s\u013eubov, v\u00fdziev a optimistick\u00fdch poh\u013eadov do bud\u00facnosti, no postaven\u00fdch na pomerne nere\u00e1lnych z\u00e1kladoch. Spom\u00ednali sa fi\u0161k\u00e1lne \u00faspory, no \u010das\u0165 trhu to hodnotila ako nedostato\u010dn\u00e9 kroky- teda zadl\u017eovanie a fi\u0161k\u00e1lne stimul\u00e1cie bud\u00fa in\u00fdmi slovami pokra\u010dova\u0165, \u010do z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska je d\u00f4vodom pre udr\u017eiavanie optimizmu. To dol\u00e1ru nemus\u00ed sedie\u0165.<\/p>\n

Riziko predsa existuje<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Na druhej strane, \u00a0u\u017e v\u010dera sme videli, \u017ee na povrch sa za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa op\u00e4\u0165 raz vyn\u00e1ra\u0165 probl\u00e9my \u0161panielskeho podkapitalizovan\u00e9ho bankov\u00e9ho sektora, ktor\u00fd st\u00e1le neodp\u00edsal v\u0161etky svoje straty z anga\u017eovanosti najm\u00e4 vo\u010di realitn\u00e9mu sektoru na iberskom polostrove. \u00a0Nehovoriac o mas\u00edvnych probl\u00e9moch s lok\u00e1lnymi sporite\u013e\u0148ami- tzv. cajas.<\/p>\n

Navy\u0161e st\u00e1le pripom\u00ednam, \u017ee v\u0161etky aktivity l\u00eddrov EU v s\u00favislosti zo zvy\u0161ovan\u00edm mo\u017enost\u00ed pre euroval nerie\u0161ia podstatu probl\u00e9mov (len ju odkop\u00e1va \u010falej), len pomerne draho a rizikovo kupuj\u00fa \u010das, ktor\u00e9ho je u\u017e teraz m\u00e1lo. To tak vytv\u00e1ra sk\u00f4r skeptick\u00fd poh\u013ead na \u010fal\u0161\u00ed rast EURUSD.<\/p>\n

Technick\u00e9 oko<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Najm\u00e4 ke\u010f technika nazna\u010duje st\u00e1le mo\u017enos\u0165 obratu (form\u00e1cia \u201erising wedge\u201c) a mas\u00edvna divergencia medzi cenou a MACD indik\u00e1torom. Ak teda 1,37 bude udr\u017ean\u00fdch, odraz nadol je mo\u017en\u00fd. Najm\u00e4 ak support \u00a01,3640\/50 uvo\u013en\u00ed cestu k 1,3580\/1,3600.<\/p>\n

\"eur25-1-11-2\"<\/p>\n

Autor: Stanislav P\u00e1nis \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj: finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na\u0161a \u201enez\u00e1visl\u00e1\u201c ECB v pr\u00edpade probl\u00e9mov kryje euru a hlavne vl\u00e1dam a bank\u00e1m chrb\u00e1t. No nek\u00fap to… Posledn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ceny EURUSD nazna\u010duje, \u017ee na euro svieti z bezobla\u010dnej oblohy slnko … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346"}],"version-history":[{"count":27,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":419,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346\/revisions\/419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}