{"id":317,"date":"2011-01-21T22:31:26","date_gmt":"2011-01-21T22:31:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=317"},"modified":"2011-01-22T22:34:00","modified_gmt":"2011-01-22T22:34:00","slug":"dnesny-vyhlad-pre-eurusd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/dnesny-vyhlad-pre-eurusd\/","title":{"rendered":"Dne\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdh\u013ead pre EURUSD"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ticho lie\u010di<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fi\u0161k\u00e1lne ticho lie\u010di, asi takto by sa dala charakterizova\u0165 aktu\u00e1lna situ\u00e1cia na k\u013e\u00fa\u010dovom glob\u00e1lnom menovom p\u00e1re EURUSD. EURo m\u00e1 jedin\u00fa hrozbu v poh\u013eade fi\u0161k\u00e1lnej nestability a pr\u00edpadn\u00e9ho defaultu svojich z\u00e1v\u00e4zkov zo strany rizikov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn euroz\u00f3ny pod skratkou PIGS (Portugalsko, \u00cdrsko, Gr\u00e9cko, \u0160panielsko). Od za\u010diatku roka sledujeme v\u00fdrazne zlep\u0161enia pri samofinancovan\u00ed t\u00fdchto rizikov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn euroz\u00f3ny, treba v\u0161ak doda\u0165, \u017ee za v\u00fdraznej pomoci ECB. Na druhej strane v\u00fdnosy pri emitovan\u00fdch dlhopisoch na\u010falej dosahuj\u00fa ne\u0161tandardn\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 \u00farovne, ktor\u00e9 z dlhodob\u00e9ho v\u00fdh\u013eadu s\u00fa pod\u013ea n\u00e1\u0161ho n\u00e1zoru neudr\u017eate\u013en\u00e9 pokia\u013e nepr\u00edde k \u0161truktur\u00e1lnym zmen\u00e1m vo verejn\u00fdch financi\u00e1ch t\u00fdchto ekonom\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Snahy sa cenia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Okrem aktivity ECB resp. i pr\u00edpadn\u00e9ho z\u00e1ujmu \u010d\u00ednskych invest\u00edcii do EURo dlhopisov treba h\u013eada\u0165 za aktu\u00e1lnym poklesom rizika pri samofinancovan\u00ed i samotn\u00e9 krajiny PIGS. Portugalsko pristupuje pri emisii svojich pokladni\u010dn\u00fdch pouk\u00e1\u017eok k priamemu predaju investorovi (objem 110 mil. EURo v podobe 18-mesa\u010dn\u00fdch pokladni\u010dn\u00fdch pouk\u00e1\u017eok smeruje priamo bez aukcie), \u010di\u017ee z\u00e1ujemcovi za vopred dohodnut\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00fdch podmienok (rizikov\u00e1 prir\u00e1\u017eka nad Euribor ,170 b\u00e1zick\u00fdch bodov + Euribor). \u0160panieli ru\u0161ia postupne klasick\u00e9 aukcie a prech\u00e1dzaj\u00fa na emisiu dlhopisov \u00a0 cez syndikovan\u00fd proces. \u00a0Skupina b\u00e1nk sa zavia\u017ee umiestni\u0165 na trh \u0161panielskej vl\u00e1de dlhopisy, ak sa im nepodar\u00ed n\u00e1js\u0165 dopyt preber\u00fa ich na svoju bilanciu, \u010d\u00edm sa \u0160panielska vl\u00e1da zbavuje rizika neumiestnenia t\u00fdchto dl\u017en\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch papierov.<\/p>\n

Postupne sa zotavuje<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1ve tieto faktory viedli k zn\u00ed\u017eeniu rizika potreby finan\u010dn\u00fdch zdrojov z eurovalu resp. MMF, pri\u010dom ku koncu roka boli tieto kroky trhom takmer plne zapo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 na negat\u00edvnej polo\u017eke vo\u010di EURu. Ticho z kraj\u00edn Euroz\u00f3ny (akoko\u013evek vyvolan\u00e9) lie\u010di trhov\u00fa negat\u00edvnu n\u00e1ladu na EURe aspo\u0148 kr\u00e1tkodobo, \u010di p\u00f4jde o dlhodob\u00fd proces uk\u00e1\u017eu najbli\u017e\u0161ie aukcie t\u00fdchto rizikov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn. Ak k tomu pripo\u010d\u00edtame i siln\u00e9 makrod\u00e1ta zo star\u00e9ho kontinentu v podobe utorkov\u00e9ho ZEWu tak EURo t\u00e1bor za prv\u00e9 t\u00fd\u017edne nov\u00e9ho roka naber\u00e1 na sile. \u00a0Trhy s\u00fa v\u0161ak zradn\u00e9 \u00a0a v\u00fdrazne citliv\u00e9 (riziko a kr\u00edza na\u010falej pretrv\u00e1va, \u010do je v\u00fdsledkom vysokej volatility finan\u010dn\u00fdch akt\u00edv) prv\u00e1 negat\u00edvna inform\u00e1cia v neprospech EURa by op\u00e4\u0165 mohla spusti\u0165 \u201elav\u00ednovit\u00fd v\u00fdpredaj\u201c.<\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00fd poh\u013ead<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1ve pozit\u00edvne d\u00e1ta \u010fal\u0161ieho k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9ho nemeck\u00e9ho prieskumu z dielne IFO in\u0161tit\u00fatu by sa dnes mohli postara\u0165 o prielom 7-t\u00fd\u017edenn\u00fdch max\u00edm na 1,3530\/50 s potenci\u00e1lom k 1,3580\/1,36 resp. a\u017e k 1,3640\/60. Len v\u00fdrazne negat\u00edvne d\u00e1ta z IFO in\u0161tit\u00fatu by mohli tlmi\u0165 pokles rizikovej averzie z no\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdsledku technologick\u00e9ho gigantu Google a prekvapiv\u00fdch maloobchodn\u00fdch tr\u017eieb zemetrasen\u00edm zmietanej novoz\u00e9landskej ekonomiky. EURo sa chyt\u00e1 svojich pr\u00edle\u017eitosti a po prielome siln\u00fdch decembrov\u00fdch obratov\u00fdch bari\u00e9r 1,3460\/40 si vytv\u00e1ra siln\u00fd odrazov\u00fd z\u00e1klad. \u00a0Pr\u00e1zdny fundament\u00e1lny kalend\u00e1r z US ekonomiky tak podporuje zameranie sa investorov na korpor\u00e1tne v\u00fdsledky \u00a0v podobe Bank of America a General Electric, \u010do by nemusela by\u0165 v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 hrozba pre EURo. V\u00fdsledky IFO o 10:00 CET by tak dnes mohli uda\u0165 intradenn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l EURUSD, ktor\u00fd sa sna\u017e\u00ed o prielom 1,3550. Na grafe so 4-hod.periodou vid\u00edme mierne medvediu divergenciu, resp. hrozba vytvorenia potenci\u00e1lu reverznej (obratovej) form\u00e1cie rastov\u00e9ho kl\u00edna pri \u00farovni 1,3580\/1,36, \u010do by v\u0161ak mohli vyrie\u0161i\u0165 pozit\u00edvnej\u0161ie d\u00e1ta z IFO in\u0161tit\u00fatu. Negat\u00edvne d\u00e1ta ako u\u017e bolo nazna\u010den\u00e9 by mali chladi\u0165 odraz, zatia\u013e v\u0161ak nevid\u00edme d\u00f4vod pre prielom 1,3440\/20 v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie nadol.<\/p>\n

Autor: Val\u00e9r Demjan, TRIMBROKER, a.s. \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj: financnik.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ticho lie\u010di Fi\u0161k\u00e1lne ticho lie\u010di, asi takto by sa dala charakterizova\u0165 aktu\u00e1lna situ\u00e1cia na k\u013e\u00fa\u010dovom glob\u00e1lnom menovom p\u00e1re EURUSD. EURo m\u00e1 jedin\u00fa hrozbu v poh\u013eade fi\u0161k\u00e1lnej nestability a pr\u00edpadn\u00e9ho defaultu … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=317"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":320,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317\/revisions\/320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}