{"id":1720,"date":"2012-05-07T10:01:26","date_gmt":"2012-05-07T10:01:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1720"},"modified":"2013-06-07T07:04:51","modified_gmt":"2013-06-07T07:04:51","slug":"rozhodujuca-metrika-zlata-realne-urokove-miery-od-roku-1970-dodnes-od-jeff-clark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/rozhodujuca-metrika-zlata-realne-urokove-miery-od-roku-1970-dodnes-od-jeff-clark\/","title":{"rendered":"Rozhoduj\u00faca metrika zlata: re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 miery (od roku 1970 dodnes) Od: &#8222;Jeff Clark&#8220;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Existuje mnoho d\u00f4vodov, pre\u010do je zlato na\u0161ou ob\u013e\u00fabenou invest\u00edciou \u2013 v\u010faka infla\u010dn\u00e9mu strachu, dlhovej kr\u00edzy a syst\u00e9mov\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mom. Bu\u010fme v\u0161ak \u00faprimn\u00fd: St\u00fapalo 11 rokov a bolo by neopatrn\u00e9 nezamyslie\u0165 sa nad t\u00fdm, \u010di u\u017e nie je koniec. Je teda \u010das na odchod?&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Autor: Filip Magala \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj: <a title=\"Existuje mnoho d\u00f4vodov, pre\u010do je zlato na\u0161ou ob\u013e\u00fabenou invest\u00edciou \u2013 v\u010faka infla\u010dn\u00e9mu strachu, dlhovej kr\u00edzy a syst\u00e9mov\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mom. Bu\u010fme v\u0161ak \u00faprimn\u00fd: St\u00fapalo 11 rokov a bolo by neopatrn\u00e9 nezamyslie\u0165 sa nad t\u00fdm, \u010di u\u017e nie je koniec. Je teda \u010das na odchod?  V skratke, nie. Vysvetl\u00edm pre\u010do. Existuje indik\u00e1tor, ktor\u00fd jednozna\u010dne signalizuje pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00faci b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed trend zlata \u2013 a \u010do viac, m\u00f4\u017eeme o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 jeho pokra\u010duj\u00faci rast. T\u00fdmto indik\u00e1torom s\u00fa negat\u00edvne re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby (alebo inak \u00b4miery\u00b4). Re\u00e1lna \u00farokov\u00e1 sadzba je jednoducho nomin\u00e1lna sadzba m\u00ednus infl\u00e1cia. Napr\u00edklad, ak zarob\u00edte 4% na \u00farokoch z invest\u00edcie a infl\u00e1cia je 2%, v\u00e1\u0161 skuto\u010dn\u00fd z\u00e1robok s\u00fa 2%. Alebo ak by v\u00e1m invest\u00edcia zarobila 1%, infl\u00e1cia je v\u0161ak 3%, va\u0161a skuto\u010dn\u00e1 miera je -2%.  Kalkul\u00e1cia je st\u00e1le rovnak\u00e1 bez oh\u013eadu na to, ako vysok\u00e1 m\u00f4\u017ee miera by\u0165: 15% \u00farokov\u00e1 miera a 13% infl\u00e1cia v\u00e1m st\u00e1le d\u00e1 len 2%. Aj preto nie s\u00fa vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 miery pre zlato nevyhnutne negat\u00edvne; je to sk\u00f4r re\u00e1lna miera, ktor\u00e1 m\u00e1 dopad na to, \u010do nakoniec zlato urob\u00ed.  \u010co n\u00e1m hovor\u00ed hist\u00f3ria V grafe kalkulujeme re\u00e1lnu \u00farokov\u00fa mieru t\u00fdm, \u017ee z\u00edskame priemern\u00fa ro\u010dn\u00fa infl\u00e1ciu z nomin\u00e1lnej sadzby 10 ro\u010dn\u00fdch oblig\u00e1ci\u00ed. \u0160ed\u00e9 vytie\u0148ovan\u00e9 plochy s\u00fa peri\u00f3dy, kedy re\u00e1lna \u00farokov\u00e1 miera bola pod nulou a ako vid\u00edte, je to aj \u010das, kedy sa zlatu darilo.    Zlato rastie, ke\u010f  s\u00fa re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 miery dole alebo padaj\u00fa, st\u00fapaj\u00face re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 miery maj\u00fa zase negat\u00edvny vplyv. Tento vzor platil v 70. rokoch minul\u00e9ho storo\u010dia a plat\u00ed aj dnes.  Podrobnej\u0161ou \u0161t\u00fadiou tohto grafu n\u00e1jdeme kritick\u00fd po\u010det re\u00e1lnych mier, ktor\u00e9  sa zdaj\u00fa ma\u0165 na zlato najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed dopad. V\u0161imnite si, ako sa zlato spr\u00e1va, ke\u010f s\u00fa re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 miery pod 2%.    D\u00f4vod tohto javu je jednozna\u010dn\u00fd. Ke\u010f re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby s\u00fa na nule alebo pod \u0148ou, cash alebo dlhov\u00e9 in\u0161trumenty (ako oblig\u00e1cie) prest\u00e1vaj\u00fa by\u0165 efekt\u00edvne, preto\u017ee je v\u00fdnos ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed  ako infl\u00e1cia. V t\u00fdchto pr\u00edpadoch vlastne invest\u00edcia str\u00e1ca k\u00fapnu silu. Z\u00e1ujem investora sa tak pres\u00fava do akt\u00edv, ktor\u00e9 maj\u00fa z\u00e1robky nad infl\u00e1ciou... alebo aspo\u0148 tam, kde nestr\u00e1caj\u00fa na hodnote. Zlato je jednou z najspo\u013eahlivej\u0161\u00edch a najosved\u010denej\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1strojov v tomto scen\u00e1ri.  Politici v USA, E\u00da a v rade \u010fal\u0161\u00edch kraj\u00edn dr\u017eia \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby n\u00edzko, ktor\u00e9, aj napriek n\u00edzkemu CPI (infl\u00e1cia), tla\u010dia re\u00e1lne sadzby pod nulu. A to automaticky rob\u00ed z cashu a oblig\u00e1ci\u00ed jasn\u00fdch loserov. Nie len, \u017ee investori udr\u017euj\u00fa k\u00fapnu silu zlata, preskakuj\u00fa v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu z naj\u00faro\u010denej\u0161\u00edch invest\u00edci\u00ed pr\u00e1ve v\u010faka st\u00fapaj\u00facej cene kovu.  Tu je \u010fal\u0161\u00ed sp\u00f4sob, ako si overi\u0165 tento trend. Ako ukazuje nasleduj\u00faci graf, od janu\u00e1ra 1970 do janu\u00e1ra 1980 vyk\u00e1zalo zlato n\u00e1vratnos\u0165 1832.6%. To je ove\u013ea vy\u0161\u0161ie, ako bola v tom \u010dase infl\u00e1cia \u2013 105.8%.    V s\u00fa\u010dasnom b\u00fd\u010dom trhu zlato od roku 2001 z\u00edskalo 556.3%, pri\u010dom infl\u00e1cia 30%.     \u010eal\u0161ou vecou, podporuj\u00facou t\u00fato hypot\u00e9zu je fakt, \u017ee ke\u010f re\u00e1lne sadzby s\u00fa pozit\u00edvne, zlatu sa nedarilo. M\u00f4\u017eete si to v\u0161imn\u00fa\u0165 v nasleduj\u00facom grafe, kedy re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby boli vy\u0161\u0161ie ako infl\u00e1cia.    Ceny zlata 20 rokov kol\u00edsali medzi $300 a $500, kedy boli sadzby pozit\u00edvne. A to je siln\u00e1 pripomienka toho, \u017ee b\u00fd\u010die trhy netrvaj\u00fa ve\u010dne a raz budeme musie\u0165 preda\u0165.  Tak\u017ee ak hist\u00f3ria demon\u0161truje, \u017ee zlatu sa po\u010das negat\u00edvnych sadzieb darilo dobre a po\u010das pozit\u00edvnych zle, prirodzene sa naskytuje ot\u00e1zka...  Ako dlho e\u0161te ostan\u00fa re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby negat\u00edvne? Guvern\u00e9r americkej centr\u00e1lnej banky Ben Bernanke  v janu\u00e1ri uviedol, \u017ee o\u010dak\u00e1va ponechanie kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb bl\u00edzko nuly \u201easpo\u0148 do konca roku 2014.\u201c T\u00e1to politika n\u00edzkych sadzieb a uvo\u013enen\u00fdch pe\u0148az\u00ed m\u00e1 za \u00fa\u010del \u201epodporu silnej\u0161ieho ekonomick\u00e9ho zotavenia a redukcie zamestnanosti.\u201c Nazna\u010duje to, \u017ee takmer ka\u017ed\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia vy\u00fasti do negat\u00edvnych re\u00e1lnych sadieb a preto bude zlato st\u00e1le v rastovom trende.  \u010co ak sa ekonomika zlep\u0161\u00ed? Existuj\u00fa ekonomick\u00e9 d\u00e1ta, ktor\u00e9 ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee ekonomika u\u017e narazila na dno a teda \u00farokov\u00e9 miery by mohli \u00eds\u0165 u\u017e bud\u00faci rok hore. Na z\u00e1klade hore uveden\u00fdch d\u00e1t je odpove\u010fou \u201eA \u010do infl\u00e1cia?\u201c In\u00fdmi slovami, fluktu\u00e1cie \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb sam\u00e9 o sebe nie s\u00fa d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 je, ak\u00e1 je ich interakcia s infl\u00e1ciou. Ak infl\u00e1cia rastie a z\u00e1rove\u0148 dr\u017e\u00ed re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 miery negat\u00edvne, m\u00f4\u017eeme aj na\u010falej o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 rast ceny zlata.  S t\u00fdm obsc\u00e9nnym mno\u017estvom pe\u0148az\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 je tla\u010den\u00e9, sa vysok\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia zd\u00e1 takmer ist\u00e1, dokonca aj vtedy, ke\u010f sa nebude to\u013eko tla\u010di\u0165. Aj preto si mysl\u00edme, \u017ee koniec zlat\u00e9ho b\u00fdka e\u0161te nie je na doh\u013ead.  A e\u0161te jedna vec. Z hore uveden\u00fdch grafov si v\u0161imnite, \u017ee na zvr\u00e1tenie trendu treba ve\u013ea odhodlania a sily. Investorom trv\u00e1 mesiace, \u010di roky, na prechod od \u00faro\u010den\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed ku kovom a naopak. A \u010d\u00edm dlh\u0161\u00ed trend, t\u00fdm pomal\u0161ia zmena. Re\u00e1lne sadzby s\u00fa negat\u00edvne u\u017e vy\u0161e jednej dek\u00e1dy a s tak\u00fdmito \u0161irok\u00fdmi  in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnymi invest\u00edciami (napr. obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy centr\u00e1lnych b\u00e1nk, pozn. prekl.) sa pochopite\u013ene v najbli\u017e\u0161om \u010dase ani so zmenou kurzu nepo\u010d\u00edta.  Z\u00e1ver pre investora Vyzbrojen\u00fd t\u00fdmito d\u00e1tami existuj\u00fa konkr\u00e9tne kroky, ktor\u00e9 ako investor m\u00f4\u017eete urobi\u0165:  U\u017e dnes m\u00f4\u017eete nak\u00fapi\u0165 zlato. Pokia\u013e s\u00fa \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby negat\u00edvne, zlato ostane v rast\u00facom trende. Ak u\u017e zlato vlastn\u00edte je na mieste ot\u00e1zka, \u010di ho m\u00e1te dostatok, pri tom, ako peniaze str\u00e1caj\u00fa svoju silu.  Nespanik\u00e1rte pri spr\u00e1ve o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch mier, sledujte re\u00e1lne miery.  Pod\u013ea n\u00e1s ostan\u00fa pre najbli\u017e\u0161iu bud\u00facnos\u0165 re\u00e1lne \u00farokov\u00e9 miery negat\u00edvne a to z jednoduch\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu: infl\u00e1cia narast\u00e1. Sp\u00fdtajte sa sami seba: Zv\u00fd\u0161i Fed a in\u00ed centr\u00e1lny bank\u00e1ri miery a\u017e tak agres\u00edvne, aby dostihli infl\u00e1ciu? Jedn\u00e9ho d\u0148a...nie v\u0161ak v najbli\u017e\u0161om \u010dase.  Ak bud\u00fa re\u00e1lne sadzby pozit\u00edvne, najm\u00e4 nad hranicou 2%, m\u00f4\u017ee nasta\u0165 \u010das predaja. Vtedy sa budeme musie\u0165 lep\u0161ie pozrie\u0165, \u010do sa to vo svete deje; \u010di vl\u00e1dne finan\u010dn\u00fd chaos, faktor strachu dok\u00e1\u017ee zlato vych\u00fdli\u0165 od jeho hist\u00f3riou predpokladan\u00e9ho vzoru. Ak aj nie, majte na mysli, \u017ee zatia\u013e \u010do jeho cena denne kol\u00ed\u0161e, opustenie \u201ezlat\u00fdch\u201c invest\u00edci\u00ed sa nestane za noc.  Existuje mnoho d\u00f4vodov na vlastn\u00edctvo zlata a e\u0161te ich bude o \u010dosi viac, k\u00fdm povieme zlatu zbohom. Medzi\u010dasom si m\u00f4\u017eeme u\u017e\u00edva\u0165 fakt, \u017ee najsilnej\u0161\u00ed historick\u00fd indik\u00e1tor n\u00e1m hr\u00e1 do kariet a vieme, \u017ee aj nasleduj\u00facich p\u00e1r rokov hra\u0165 bude.\" href=\"http:\/\/www.financnytrh.com\/rozhodujuca-metrika-zlata-realne-urokove-miery-od-roku-1970-dodnes-od-jeff-clark\/a8088\" target=\"_blank\">financnytrh.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Existuje mnoho d\u00f4vodov, pre\u010do je zlato na\u0161ou ob\u013e\u00fabenou invest\u00edciou \u2013 v\u010faka infla\u010dn\u00e9mu strachu, dlhovej kr\u00edzy a syst\u00e9mov\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mom. Bu\u010fme v\u0161ak \u00faprimn\u00fd: St\u00fapalo 11 rokov a bolo by neopatrn\u00e9 nezamyslie\u0165 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/rozhodujuca-metrika-zlata-realne-urokove-miery-od-roku-1970-dodnes-od-jeff-clark\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[31,30,20,63,177,9,46,62,42,10],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1720"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1720"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1720\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2282,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1720\/revisions\/2282"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}