{"id":1549,"date":"2011-12-27T19:35:33","date_gmt":"2011-12-27T19:35:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1549"},"modified":"2013-06-07T10:42:46","modified_gmt":"2013-06-07T10:42:46","slug":"komoditam-v-roku-2011-vladlo-zlato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/komoditam-v-roku-2011-vladlo-zlato\/","title":{"rendered":"Komodit\u00e1m v roku 2011 vl\u00e1dlo zlato"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Rok 2011 bol op\u00e4\u0165 pre komodity ve\u013emi volatiln\u00fdm. Najviac dok\u00e1zalo vy\u0165a\u017ei\u0165 zlato.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Zlato <\/strong>si tento rok v auguste zaknihovalo svoje historick\u00e9 rekordy v\u010faka siln\u00e9mu dopytu z Indie a tie\u017e obav\u00e1m o dol\u00e1r. V auguste sa rozbehla doslova m\u00e1nia, kedy zlato za\u010dalo st\u00fapa\u0165 a\u017e parabolicky. D\u00f4vodom boli spr\u00e1vy z Indie, ktor\u00e9 hovorili o \u010fal\u0161om rekorde importu do Indie. India, ktor\u00e1 minul\u00fd rok zv\u00fd\u0161ila import o 66% a stala sa najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1kupcom zlata (963 ton predstavovalo v roku 2010 25% glob\u00e1lneho dopytu) a predbehla \u010c\u00ednu \u2013 doviezla o 50% zlata viac ako \u010d\u00ednsky drak. Tento rok sa na z\u00e1klade dopytu z prv\u00e9ho polroka predpokladalo, \u017ee tohtoro\u010dn\u00fd import prekon\u00e1 1000 ton. Po prehnanom raste pri\u0161la korekcia, ale st\u00e1le to vyzeralo na test \u00farovne $2000 e\u0161te tento rok.<\/p>\n<p>Potom v\u0161ak pri\u0161iel koniec septembra, kedy trh o\u010dak\u00e1val nov\u00e9 stimuly FEDu. QE2 kon\u010dilo v j\u00fani, americk\u00e1 ekonomika za\u010dala vykazova\u0165 prv\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky spomalenia (v auguste hor\u0161ie v\u00fdsledky prieskumov v\u00fdrobn\u00e9ho a nev\u00fdrobn\u00e9ho\u00a0 sektora, slab\u0161ia osobn\u00e1 spotreba, v\u00fdrazn\u00fd prepad spotrebite\u013eskej d\u00f4very at\u010f.). Od FEDu sa o\u010dak\u00e1vala vzpruha, av\u0161ak pri\u0161la \u201elen\u201c oper\u00e1cia Twist, teda n\u00e1kup dlhodob\u00fdch akt\u00edv a predaj kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch s cie\u013eom zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 v\u00fdnosy dlhodob\u00fdch dlhopisov. Toto trh o\u010dak\u00e1val a m\u00e1lilo sa mu to. V euroz\u00f3ne narastalo nap\u00e4tie z d\u00f4vodu vysok\u00fdch dlhov a o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9ho spomalenia ekonomiky. ECB sa sna\u017eila zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 v\u00fdnosy n\u00e1kupom dlhopisov na sekund\u00e1rnom trhu, v d\u00f4sledku \u010doho s\u00edce klesli v\u00fdnosy, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 vy\u0161li na povrch politick\u00e9 tlaky v ECB (na protest odst\u00fapil Stark). Hlava MMF Lagardov\u00e1 sa vyjadrila, \u017ee rozvinut\u00e9 krajiny by mali pou\u017ei\u0165 v\u0161etky dostupn\u00e9 prostriedky na zabezpe\u010denie rastu, ke\u010f\u017ee svetov\u00e1 ekonomika vstupuje do ve\u013emi nebezpe\u010dnej f\u00e1zy. To vyvolalo nie len likvid\u00e1ciu rizikov\u00fdch akt\u00edv (medzi ktor\u00e9 patr\u00ed u\u017e i zlato) ale tie\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 posilnenie USD. To sp\u00f4sobilo prepad mien rozvojov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn, i indick\u00e9ho randu. Zlato sa tak stalo pre Indov v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 drah\u00fdm a obmedzili import. Dovoz zlata tak bude nie len \u017ee pod o\u010dak\u00e1vaniami, ale i ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ako minul\u00fd rok. Zlatu podobne nepraje defla\u010dn\u00e9 prostredie, kedy FED i ECB v poslednom \u010das odmietli nov\u00e9 monet\u00e1rne stimuly. Infla\u010dn\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 s\u00fa tak tlmen\u00e9 (aspo\u0148 v rozvinut\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch). Po prekro\u010den\u00ed 200 MA sa zosilnili v\u00fdpredajn\u00e9 tlaky, av\u0161ak pod $1600 sa objavuj\u00fa fyzick\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy z \u00c1zie a Bl\u00edzkeho v\u00fdchodu. To je d\u00f4vod, pre\u010do sa v poslednom \u010dase obchoduje v \u00fazkom p\u00e1sme&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Autor: Tom\u00e1\u0161 Plavec, analytik TRIM Broker \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj: <a title=\"finweb.hnonline.sk\" href=\"http:\/\/finweb.hnonline.sk\/c1-54291560-komoditam-v-roku-2011-vladlo-zlato-span-class-koment-komoditny-komentar-span\" target=\"_blank\">finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rok 2011 bol op\u00e4\u0165 pre komodity ve\u013emi volatiln\u00fdm. Najviac dok\u00e1zalo vy\u0165a\u017ei\u0165 zlato. Zlato si tento rok v auguste zaknihovalo svoje historick\u00e9 rekordy v\u010faka siln\u00e9mu dopytu z Indie a tie\u017e obav\u00e1m &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/komoditam-v-roku-2011-vladlo-zlato\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[31,9,99,129,10],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1549"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1549"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1549\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1551,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1549\/revisions\/1551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}