Minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 dal s ve\u013ekou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou odpove\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, ktor\u00e9 akt\u00edvum dr\u017e\u00ed pr\u00edm v \u010dase hospod\u00e1rskej recesie. E\u0161te v lete zlato prer\u00e1\u017ealo jeden rekord za druh\u00fdm a postupne atakovalo \u00farove\u0148 takmer $2000. Na druhej strane sa americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r dostal pod siln\u00fd v\u00fdpredajn\u00fd tlak pri neschopnosti americk\u00fdch politikov dohodn\u00fa\u0165 sa na dlhovom strope. Av\u0161ak pr\u00e1ve tento moment, kedy vrcholila mini-m\u00e1nia na zlate, sa stal obratov\u00fdm, a zlato zo svojich vrcholov stratilo takmer 20%.<\/p>\n
Po\u010fme v\u0161ak od za\u010diatku. Takmer ka\u017ed\u00fd investor sleduj\u00faci politiku Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu vie, \u017ee u\u017e \u010doskoro sa do\u010dk\u00e1me \u010fal\u0161ieho kola kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania. Hromadiaci dlh a insolventnos\u0165 má jedin\u00e9 politicky priechodn\u00e9 rie\u0161enie v pokra\u010duj\u00facich n\u00e1kupoch dlhov centr\u00e1lnymi bankami. Centr\u00e1lne banky sa tak stali jedin\u00fdmi in\u0161tit\u00faciami, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa schopn\u00e9 na svoje plecia prebra\u0165 dlhy, ktor\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa dusi\u0165 krajiny \u010di ich bankov\u00e9 sektory. QE3 je preto iba ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu.<\/p>\n
Av\u0161ak v\u0161etci t\u00ed, ktor\u00ed o\u010dak\u00e1vali ohl\u00e1senie \u010fal\u0161ieho kola kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania u\u017e pri poslednom tohtoro\u010dnom zasadnut\u00ed Fedu, boli sklaman\u00ed. Bernanke nepova\u017euje situ\u00e1ciu za tak zl\u00fa, aby Fed roz\u0161\u00edril svoje n\u00e1kupy cenn\u00fdch papierov. Naopak, nezamestnanos\u0165 uk\u00e1zala mierne zlep\u0161enie, no to kompenzuje ve\u013emi neist\u00fd a rizikov\u00fd v\u00fdh\u013ead do bud\u00facnosti. Na trhu sa tak postupne spustil siln\u00fd v\u00fdpredaj v\u0161etk\u00fdch rizikov\u00fdch akt\u00edv.<\/p>\n
Ve\u013emi prekvapuj\u00facim bol fakt, \u017ee v\u00fdpredajom dominovali drah\u00e9 kovy, ke\u010f zlato stratilo takmer 7% a striebro stratilo e\u0161te o percento viac. Investori si za\u010dali uvedomova\u0165, \u017ee pri s\u00fa\u010dasnom n\u00edzkom hospod\u00e1rskom raste, hroziacej defl\u00e1ci\u00ed, likvid\u00e1ci\u00ed bankov\u00fdch akt\u00edv, zni\u017euj\u00facej sa infl\u00e1ci\u00ed v hlavn\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch dopytu po zlate a pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ekej \u0161pekulat\u00edvnej exponovanosti sa tento drah\u00fd kov nejav\u00ed tou optim\u00e1lnou invest\u00edciou. Naopak, svoju \u00falohu bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho pr\u00edstavu potvrdzuje americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r.<\/p>\n
A nie je to len americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r. \u00daplne opa\u010dn\u00fa poz\u00edciu ako maj\u00fa eur\u00f3pske krajiny, m\u00e1 americk\u00e9 ministerstvo financi\u00ed. Pri emisi\u00e1ch jej dlhopisov \u00faroky klesaj\u00fa bl\u00edzko svojich historick\u00fdch rekordov. Zostatok rizikov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu pr\u00fadi pr\u00e1ve do bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch americk\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch papierov. Dopyt po dol\u00e1ri a dol\u00e1rov\u00fdch akt\u00edvach dosahuje op\u00e4\u0165 hodnoty ako v \u010dasoch ve\u013ekej paniky na konci roka 2008.<\/p>\n
Na druhej strane poz\u00edcie \u0161pekulantov ukazuj\u00fa, \u017ee nikdy nebola ned\u00f4vera vo\u010di jednotnej mene v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ia ako minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148. Negat\u00edvne naladenie investorov vo\u010di euru dosahuje extr\u00e9mne hodnoty a neust\u00e1le predaje eur\u00f3pskych akt\u00edv sp\u00f4sobili, \u017ee euro sa po\u010das t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148a prepadlo vo\u010di dol\u00e1ru pod 1,30. Aj ke\u010f je priestor pre pokles kurzu EUR\/USD omnoho v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed, s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 extr\u00e9mne kr\u00e1tke poz\u00edcie volaj\u00fa po opatrnosti, ke\u010f\u017ee extr\u00e9mne kr\u00e1tke poz\u00edcie s\u00fa \u010dasto bodom obratu.<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1ver roka by preto mohol by\u0165 pre euro, ako aj ostatn\u00e9 rizikov\u00e9 akt\u00edva pomerne pozit\u00edvny. Napriek svojim hrozb\u00e1m agent\u00fara S&P zatia\u013e neprich\u00e1dza so zn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm ratingu eur\u00f3pskych kraj\u00edn. Tak trochu ju nahr\u00e1dza Fitch, ktor\u00fd zn\u00ed\u017eil v\u00fdh\u013ead nieko\u013ek\u00fdm eur\u00f3pskym krajin\u00e1m vr\u00e1tane Franc\u00fazska, a Moody\u2019s, ktor\u00fd e\u0161te v piatok ve\u010der zn\u00ed\u017eil rating Belgicku, a to rovno o dva stupne.<\/p>\n
\u010eal\u0161\u00edm faktorom, ktor\u00fd by mohol sp\u00f4sobi\u0165 viano\u010dn\u00fa rely, je st\u00e1le pravdepodobnej\u0161ia dohoda Eur\u00f3py s MMF. Av\u0161ak prepada\u0165 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iemu optimizmu by bolo rozhodne pred\u010dasn\u00e9. Prv\u00e9 kvart\u00e1ly roku 2012 nebud\u00fa pre euroz\u00f3nu dobr\u00e9, mo\u017eno a\u017e kritick\u00e9. Op\u00e4\u0165 budeme svedkami jedn\u00e9ho eurosummitu za druh\u00fdm a pokra\u010duj\u00facim tlakom na v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu particip\u00e1ciu ECB. A pr\u00e1ve dnes ve\u010der uvid\u00edme, do akej miery je Draghi ochotn\u00fd prija\u0165 t\u00fato nov\u00fa rolu.<\/p>\n
Autor: <\/strong>Ronald I\u017eip, TRIMBROKER, a.s. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj: financnik.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 dal s ve\u013ekou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou odpove\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, ktor\u00e9 akt\u00edvum dr\u017e\u00ed pr\u00edm v \u010dase hospod\u00e1rskej recesie. E\u0161te v lete zlato prer\u00e1\u017ealo jeden rekord za druh\u00fdm a postupne atakovalo \u00farove\u0148 … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[31,202,25,9,99,129,173,10],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1546"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2317,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1546\/revisions\/2317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}