{"id":1299,"date":"2011-06-14T10:45:31","date_gmt":"2011-06-14T10:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1299"},"modified":"2011-06-14T10:46:35","modified_gmt":"2011-06-14T10:46:35","slug":"je-poda-dostatocnou-ochranou-pred-hyperinflaciou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/je-poda-dostatocnou-ochranou-pred-hyperinflaciou\/","title":{"rendered":"Je p\u00f4da dostato\u010dnou ochranou pred (hyper)infl\u00e1ciou?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Viacero \u013eud\u00ed sa chce ochr\u00e1ni\u0165 pred hrozbou bud\u00facej vysokej infl\u00e1cie, resp. hyperinfl\u00e1cie. Na tom by nebolo ni\u010d zl\u00e9, pr\u00e1ve naopak, take nie\u010do je ve\u013emi vhodn\u00fdm krokom v podmienkach s\u00fa\u010dasnej neistoty. V\u0161eobecne prij\u00edman\u00fd argument, ktor\u00fd hovor\u00ed o p\u00f4de ako o v\u00fdbornej poistke pred infla\u010dnou hrozbou, n\u00e1s m\u00f4\u017ee \u010dasto kr\u00e1t zmias\u0165. Je teda potrebn\u00e9 polo\u017ei\u0165 si element\u00e1rnu ot\u00e1zku, a s\u00edce, \u010di je n\u00e1kup po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskej p\u00f4dy rozumn\u00fdm krokom pri obav\u00e1ch z (hyper)infl\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n

Jednoduch\u00e1 odpove\u010f znie: nie. Av\u0161ak d\u00f4vod tak\u00e9hoto tvrdenia stoj\u00ed za hlb\u0161ie presk\u00famanie, preto\u017ee existuje obdobie, kedy bude n\u00e1kup p\u00f4dy (nie nehnute\u013enosti) vhodnou invest\u00edciou a kedy to bude absol\u00fatne pr\u00ed\u0161ern\u00e1 invest\u00edcia. A ako to v \u017eivote v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou b\u00fdva, hranica medzi nie\u010d\u00edm nerozumn\u00fdm na jednej strane a logick\u00fdm na strane druhej, je ve\u013emi tenk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Po prv\u00e9, po\u013enohospod\u00e1rska p\u00f4da produkuje komodity \u2013 ktor\u00e9 by v infla\u010dn\u00fdch podmienkach prudko naberali na hodnote. Preto by sme si mohli myslie\u0165, \u017ee vlastn\u00edctvo p\u00f4dy je nie\u010do podobn\u00e9 ako vlastn\u00edctvo zlatej bane: ist\u00e1 poistka pred infl\u00e1ciou.<\/p>\n

Av\u0161ak existuj\u00fa 3 v\u00fdstrahy pred tak\u00fdmto typom argument\u00e1cie. Prv\u00e1 tkvie v tom, \u017ee dostupnos\u0165 pri k\u00fape po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskej p\u00f4dy je v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na poskytnut\u00ed \u00faveru. Po druh\u00e9, podnikanie v po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstve je finan\u010dne n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 a po tretie, na rozdiel od priemyseln\u00fdch komod\u00edt, alebo drah\u00fdch kovov, po\u013enohospod\u00e1rske produkty sa m\u00f4\u017eu r\u00fdchlo znehodnoti\u0165, ak nie s\u00fa skonzumovan\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Z prv\u00fdch dvoch bodov m\u00f4\u017eeme vyvodi\u0165 z\u00e1ver, \u017ee \u00faverov\u00e9 financovanie je jedna z k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch vec\u00ed pri vlastn\u00edctve p\u00f4dy ako akt\u00edva, a aj pri podnikan\u00ed v po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstve.<\/p>\n

Preto, ak \u00faverov\u00e9 financovanie vyschne \u2013 situ\u00e1cia zapr\u00ed\u010dinen\u00e1 \u010fal\u0161ou bankovou kr\u00edzou, alebo prudk\u00fdm zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb z d\u00f4vodu vysokej infl\u00e1cie \u2013 po\u013enohospod\u00e1ri si nebud\u00fa m\u00f4c\u0165 dovoli\u0165 k\u00fapi\u0165 potrebn\u00e9 vybavenie na obhospodarovanie p\u00f4dy. To je dlhotrvaj\u00faci probl\u00e9m, ktor\u00fd tr\u00e1pi farm\u00e1rov aj v dobr\u00fdch \u010dasoch. V \u010dasoch vysokej infl\u00e1cie, poskytovanie \u00faverov by bolo vo ve\u013ekej miere obmedzen\u00e9, ak nie \u00faplne pozastaven\u00e9, ke\u010f\u017ee banky a in\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 in\u0161tit\u00facie by neboli ochotn\u00e9 poskytova\u0165 p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dky \u2013 koniec koncov, nem\u00f4\u017eeme sa im ani \u010dudova\u0165; infl\u00e1cia, a to nespom\u00edname zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fa infl\u00e1ciu povedzme na dvojcifern\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch, nie to e\u0161te hyperinfl\u00e1cia, podlamuje finan\u010dn\u00e9 in\u0161tit\u00facie, preto\u017ee v \u00faverov\u00fdch vz\u0165ahoch vystupuj\u00fa ako veritelia.<\/p>\n

Tretia v\u00fdstraha \u2013 znehodnotenie po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskych komod\u00edt v pr\u00edpade, ak sa nespotrebuj\u00fa \u2013 je d\u00f4vodom, pre\u010do tak\u00e9 ve\u013ek\u00e9 mno\u017estvo farm\u00e1rov nepl\u00e1nuje mno\u017estvo \u00farody v obdob\u00ed vysokej infl\u00e1cie, resp. hyperinfl\u00e1cie. Ak sa nad t\u00fdm na chv\u00ed\u013eu zamysl\u00edme, zist\u00edme, \u017ee tak\u00e9 konanie je absol\u00fatne racion\u00e1lne.<\/p>\n

Preto\u017ee cena pohonn\u00fdch hm\u00f4t a aj ostatn\u00e9ho spotrebn\u00e9ho tovaru, ktor\u00fd je nevyhnutn\u00fd pre farm\u00e1r\u010denie, rastie, po\u013enohospod\u00e1ri jednoducho nemaj\u00fa dostatok hotovostn\u00fdch prostriedkov, ktor\u00fdmi by mohli plati\u0165 za neust\u00e1le sa zvy\u0161uj\u00face n\u00e1klady. A tak sa rozhodn\u00fa nefarm\u00e1r\u010di\u0165 v takom rozsahu ako by mohli, preto\u017ee nemaj\u00fa hotovos\u0165, ktorou by uhradili vysok\u00e9 produk\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, alebo si nem\u00f4\u017eu dovoli\u0165 \u201e\u00fa\u017eern\u00edcky\u201c vysok\u00e9 \u00faroky. Po\u013enohospod\u00e1ri teraz nekonaj\u00fa v zmysle svojho vlastn\u00e9ho z\u00e1ujmu: uvedomuj\u00fa si, \u017ee je lep\u0161ie nezar\u00e1ba\u0165 peniaze, ako ich str\u00e1ca\u0165.<\/p>\n

Ak by aj farm\u00e1ri konali v rozpore s vlastn\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00fdm z\u00e1ujmom a zasiali by \u00farodu, ktor\u00fa si potom nebud\u00fa m\u00f4c\u0165 dovoli\u0165 zo\u017ea\u0165, len \u010do by sa im podarilo t\u00fato \u00farodu nejak\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom predsa len zo\u017ea\u0165, je pravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee ju nebud\u00fa schopn\u00ed doda\u0165 na trh. D\u00f4vod je jednoduch\u00fd. N\u00e1klady, hlavne na dopravu, by v podmienkach hyperinfl\u00e1cie znemo\u017enili dodanie po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskej produkcie na trh, resp. tak\u00e9 rozhodnutie by bolo iracion\u00e1lne. Preto by zo\u017eat\u00e1 \u00faroda \u201eodpo\u010d\u00edvala\u201c a hnila a nikdy by sa nedostala na trh, zatia\u013e \u010do naokolo z\u00fari hyperinfl\u00e1cia.<\/p>\n

A teda z poh\u013eadu po\u013enohospod\u00e1ra by sadenie, \u017eatva a pokus umiestni\u0165 plodiny na trh, ned\u00e1valo \u017eiaden zmysel \u2013 \u00fa\u010dinnej\u0161ie by bolo financie uchova\u0165 in\u00fdm sp\u00f4sobom a d\u00fafa\u0165 v lep\u0161ie \u010dasy.<\/p>\n

Predpokladajme v\u0161ak, \u017ee infl\u00e1cia sa zvy\u0161uje, ale je st\u00e1le takpovediac mierna (menej ako 20% ro\u010dne). V takom pr\u00edpade s\u00fa po\u013enohospod\u00e1rske komodity v\u00fdbornou poistkou proti infl\u00e1cii. O\u010dak\u00e1vania \u0161pekulantov, \u017ee infl\u00e1cia vy\u017eenie ceny potrav\u00edn vy\u0161\u0161ie bude ma\u0165 za n\u00e1sledok, \u017ee trhov\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci bud\u00fa mas\u00edvne vstupova\u0165 na trh s po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskymi plodinami a zvy\u0161ova\u0165 t\u00fdm ich cenu. To ist\u00e9 plat\u00ed aj pre samotn\u00fa hospod\u00e1rsku p\u00f4du.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9to \u0161pekul\u00e1cie na trhu s po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskymi produktmi a p\u00f4dou sa bud\u00fa zvy\u0161ova\u0165 a\u017e do ur\u010dit\u00e9ho bodu, kedy praskn\u00fa. Kedy to bude? Presn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 infl\u00e1cie, kedy k tomu d\u00f4jde sa zisti\u0165 ned\u00e1, ale bude to v \u010dase, kedy sa infl\u00e1cia \u201eutrhne z re\u0165aze\u201c a stane sa najv\u00e1\u017enej\u0161\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mom.<\/p>\n

\"poda-110614-1\"<\/p>\n

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Ak infl\u00e1cia rastie, cena p\u00f4dy nielen\u017ee tento rast vyrovn\u00e1va, ale ho prekon\u00e1va, a\u017e do bodu zlomu, kedy sa za\u010d\u00edna jej cena drasticky prepada\u0165 kv\u00f4li d\u00f4vodom, ktor\u00e9 sme uviedli.<\/p>\n

Invest\u00edcia do po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskej p\u00f4dy, ako tak\u00e1, nie je nerozumn\u00fdm rie\u0161en\u00edm. Trik spo\u010d\u00edva v na\u010dasovan\u00ed. Kedy je ten spr\u00e1vny moment zbavi\u0165 sa tejto invest\u00edcie?<\/p>\n

Odpove\u010f: Predt\u00fdm ako vysok\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia zmraz\u00ed \u00faverov\u00e9 financovanie.<\/p>\n

Autor:\u00a0Peter Margetiny, TRIMBROKER, a.s. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj: financnik.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Viacero \u013eud\u00ed sa chce ochr\u00e1ni\u0165 pred hrozbou bud\u00facej vysokej infl\u00e1cie, resp. hyperinfl\u00e1cie. Na tom by nebolo ni\u010d zl\u00e9, pr\u00e1ve naopak, take nie\u010do je ve\u013emi vhodn\u00fdm krokom v podmienkach s\u00fa\u010dasnej neistoty. … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1299"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1299"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1299\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1304,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1299\/revisions\/1304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}