{"id":1246,"date":"2011-05-17T08:59:39","date_gmt":"2011-05-17T08:59:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1246"},"modified":"2011-05-17T08:59:39","modified_gmt":"2011-05-17T08:59:39","slug":"tlacenie-dolarov-coskoro-skonci-co-potom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/tlacenie-dolarov-coskoro-skonci-co-potom\/","title":{"rendered":"Tla\u010denie dol\u00e1rov \u010doskoro skon\u010d\u00ed. \u010co potom?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Existuje nieko\u013eko variantov v\u00fdvoja, \u010do sprav\u00ed Fed (na sn\u00edmke jeho \u0161\u00e9f) s kvantitat\u00edvnym uvo\u013e\u0148ovan\u00edm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Spr\u00e1vy o ve\u013ekoobchodnej a najm\u00e4 maloobchodnej infl\u00e1cii s\u00fa v\u017edy ve\u013emi d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, preto\u017ee pod\u013ea v\u00fdvoja infl\u00e1cie m\u00f4\u017eeme predpoklada\u0165 v\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb. Ako je zn\u00e1me, menov\u00fd trh d\u00e1va \u00farokov\u00fdm sadzb\u00e1m zna\u010dn\u00fa v\u00e1hu a d\u00e1va n\u00e1m t\u00fdm\u00a0mo\u017enos\u0165predpoveda\u0165, ak\u00fdm smerom sa jednotliv\u00e9 meny vydaj\u00fa.<\/p>\n

V s\u00fa\u010dasnej dobe je v\u0161ak e\u0161te jeden d\u00f4vod, pre\u010do by sme\u00a0mali sledova\u0165 spr\u00e1vy o infl\u00e1cii. T\u00fdm d\u00f4vodom je bl\u00ed\u017eiaci sa koniec druhej vlny kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania (QE2). Americk\u00e1 centr\u00e1lna banka – Fed – neust\u00e1le pokra\u010duje v n\u00e1kupoch bondov, \u010d\u00edm udr\u017euje \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby na \u00farovni, ktor\u00e1 je ni\u017e\u0161ia, akoby bola \u00farove\u0148 ur\u010den\u00e1 trhom. Hlavn\u00fdm argumentom odporcov QE je mo\u017enos\u0165 prudk\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161enia infla\u010dn\u00fdch tlakov. Preto bude koniec QE2 a \u010fal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj do istej miery z\u00e1le\u017ea\u0165 na v\u00fdvoji infl\u00e1cie. Zn\u00e1mky o zvy\u0161uj\u00facej sa infl\u00e1cii nemusia nevyhnutne vies\u0165 k priamemu zv\u00fd\u0161eniu sadzieb, ale ve\u013emi pravdepodobne by viedli k \u00fapln\u00e9mu odmietnutiu mo\u017enosti tretej vlny QE, ktor\u00fa ob\u010das m\u00e9di\u00e1 spomen\u00fa (averzia k mo\u017enosti QE3 je v\u0161ak aj v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti vysok\u00e1 a tak je \u010fal\u0161ie kolo QE ve\u013emi nepravdepodobn\u00e9 ).<\/p>\n

Za posledn\u00fdch nieko\u013eko t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148ov pomerne v\u00fdrazne vzr\u00e1stla frekvencia, ke\u010f nejak\u00fd\u00a0\u010dlen Fedu otvorene hovor\u00ed o mo\u017enosti zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 sadzby u\u017e v priebehu roka 2011. Fed v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed nevyhnutne zdvihn\u00fa\u0165 sadzby k tomu, aby za\u010dal neutralizova\u0165 vplyv QE2.<\/p>\n

Existuje tak nieko\u013eko variantov mo\u017en\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja:<\/em><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Ukon\u010denie QE2 – teda ukon\u010denie n\u00e1kupov dlhopisov na trhu s t\u00fdm, \u017ee Fed bude pokra\u010dova\u0165 v znovuinvestovan\u00ed pe\u0148az\u00ed ut\u0155\u017een\u00fdch z dr\u017eania dlhopisov. T\u00e1to mo\u017enos\u0165 by vlastne zna\u010dila, \u017ee mno\u017estvo dr\u017ean\u00fdch dlhopisov by sa nezmen\u0161ilo, \u010do by sa dalo pova\u017eova\u0165 za pas\u00edvne pokra\u010dovanie QE2 a i\u0161lo by o pokra\u010dovanie vysoko expanz\u00edvnej monet\u00e1rnej politiky. Slabo negat\u00edvny pre USD.<\/li>\n
  2. Ukon\u010denie QE2 s t\u00fdm, \u017ee Fed nebude pokra\u010dova\u0165 vo znovuinvestov\u00e1n\u00ed pe\u0148az\u00ed nadobudnut\u00fdch z dr\u017eania dlhopisov. Ako by dlhopisy maturovali, tak by sa mno\u017estvo dr\u017ean\u00fdch dlhopisov zmen\u0161ovalo, \u010do by sa dalo interpretova\u0165 ako postupn\u00e9 u\u0165ahovanie expanz\u00edvnej politiky. Slabo pozit\u00edvna pre USD.<\/li>\n
  3. Priame zdvihnutie sadzby „Fed Funds“, ktor\u00e1 je z\u00e1kladnou sadzbou, za ktor\u00fa si banky po\u017ei\u010diavaj\u00fa kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 prostriedky. Ve\u013emi USD pozit\u00edvne.<\/li>\n
  4. Kombin\u00e1cia zdvihnutia sadzby Fed Funds, ale pokra\u010dovanie vo znovuinvestov\u00e1n\u00ed maturuj\u00facich dlhopisov. USD neutr\u00e1lne.<\/li>\n
  5. Zv\u00fd\u0161enie \u00faroku, ktor\u00fd Fed platia bank\u00e1m na ulo\u017een\u00fdch prebyto\u010dn\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch. Tento relat\u00edvne\u00a0nov\u00fdsp\u00f4sob kontroly mno\u017estva pe\u0148az\u00ed v obehu by mal prin\u00fati\u0165 banky, aby si rad\u0161ej ulo\u017eili finan\u010dn\u00e9 prostriedky vo Fede, ne\u017e aby ich po\u017ei\u010diavali \u010falej za \u00farok klientom v podobe novovytvoren\u00fdch \u00faverov. T\u00e1to mo\u017enos\u0165 by mala umo\u017eni\u0165 kontrolova\u0165 infl\u00e1ciu (ak by sa uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee sa zvy\u0161uje, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 by umo\u017enila ponecha\u0165 Fed Funds sadzbu bezo zmeny. USD neutr\u00e1lne a\u017e slab\u00e9 pozit\u00edvne.<\/li>\n
  6. Ozn\u00e1menie QE3 sa zd\u00e1 v s\u00fa\u010dasnej situ\u00e1cii ve\u013emi nepravdepodobn\u00e9. Ak by k nemu predsa len do\u0161lo, mo\u017eno o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 op\u00e4tovn\u00e9 mohutn\u00e9 v\u00fdpredaje USD.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Ako sme sa v piatok dozvedeli, maloobchodn\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia bez vplyvu potrav\u00edn a\u00a0energie (aj ke\u010f o logike tak\u00e9hoto merania mo\u017eno diskutova\u0165) je zatia\u013e pod kontrolou (medzimesa\u010dn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161enie na 0.2% z minul\u00fdch 0.1%) a medziro\u010dne 1.3%. Najob\u013e\u00fabenej\u0161\u00edm indik\u00e1torom infl\u00e1cie, ktor\u00fd Fed pou\u017e\u00edva, je v\u0161ak PCE index, ktor\u00fd bude publikovan\u00fd na konci m\u00e1ja.<\/p>\n

    Do pl\u00e1novan\u00e9ho konca QE2 na konci j\u00fana n\u00e1m e\u0161te p\u00e1r t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148ov zost\u00e1va a tak sa nech\u00e1me prekvapi\u0165, ak\u00e9 hlasy z Fedu e\u0161te budeme po\u010du\u0165. \u010ci sa bude frekvencia koment\u00e1rov zvy\u0161ova\u0165\u00a0rovnak\u00fdm tempom ako za posledn\u00fd mesiac, tak to bude ve\u013emi zauj\u00edmav\u00e9.<\/p>\n

    Autor:\u00a0Ond\u0159ej\u00a0Hartman \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:\u00a0finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Existuje nieko\u013eko variantov v\u00fdvoja, \u010do sprav\u00ed Fed (na sn\u00edmke jeho \u0161\u00e9f) s kvantitat\u00edvnym uvo\u013e\u0148ovan\u00edm. Spr\u00e1vy o ve\u013ekoobchodnej a najm\u00e4 maloobchodnej infl\u00e1cii s\u00fa v\u017edy ve\u013emi d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9, preto\u017ee pod\u013ea v\u00fdvoja infl\u00e1cie m\u00f4\u017eeme … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1246"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1246"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1248,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1246\/revisions\/1248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}