{"id":1240,"date":"2011-05-13T11:45:55","date_gmt":"2011-05-13T11:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1240"},"modified":"2011-05-13T11:45:55","modified_gmt":"2011-05-13T11:45:55","slug":"hrozi-nam-vojna-o-komodity-komentar-dna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/hrozi-nam-vojna-o-komodity-komentar-dna\/","title":{"rendered":"Hroz\u00ed n\u00e1m vojna o komodity (koment\u00e1r d\u0148a)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0160tatistika takmer s istotou hovor\u00ed, \u017ee svet za zmenil \u2013 komodity u\u017e nikdy nebud\u00fa lacn\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bolo to 28. j\u00fala 1914, kedy sa svet po 100 rokoch mieru prebudil do prvej svetovej vojny. Pre mnoh\u00fdch to bol \u0161ok, ke\u010f\u017ee neexistovalo ve\u013ea d\u00f4vodov predpoklada\u0165, \u017ee tenzie medzi eur\u00f3pskymi ve\u013emocami sa skon\u010dia masov\u00fdm vyvra\u017e\u010fovan\u00edm. Trvalo viac ako cel\u00fa jednu gener\u00e1ciu, k\u00fdm n\u00e1sledky vojny odozneli. Rovnak\u00fdm \u0161okom by mohla by\u0165 vojna aj pre n\u00e1s po tom, ako \u017eijeme dek\u00e1dy v\u00a0mieri. Expanzia ve\u013emoc\u00ed na po\u010diatku 20. storo\u010dia by mohla by\u0165 vystriedan\u00e1 bojom o\u00a0z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 suroviny na za\u010diatku 21. storo\u010dia. D\u00f4vodov na to je viac ako dos\u0165.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ve\u010dn\u00ed optimisti<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u013dudia s\u00fa ve\u010dn\u00ed optimisti. Zd\u00e1 sa nepredstavite\u013en\u00e9, \u017ee by op\u00e4\u0165 mohla nasta\u0165 glob\u00e1lna vojna. A zd\u00e1 sa nepredstavite\u013en\u00e9, \u017ee by na\u0161a \u017eivotn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 mohla klesa\u0165. Typickou mantrou politikov je siln\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rast a\u00a0rast \u017eivotnej \u00farovne. Cel\u00fd svoj \u017eivot \u017eijeme v\u00a0takomto svete a\u00a0nevieme si predstavi\u0165, \u017ee by tomu mohlo by\u0165 in\u00e1\u010d. Zvykli sme si na to, \u017ee n\u00e1\u0161 rast je exponenci\u00e1lny.<\/p>\n

No probl\u00e9m je, \u017ee \u017eiadny exponenci\u00e1lny rast nie je dlhodobo udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd. Jeremy Grantham uv\u00e1dza porovnanie na pr\u00edklade starovek\u00e9ho Egypta, ktorej civiliz\u00e1cia trvala 3000 rokov. Predstavme si, \u017ee by na za\u010diatku\u00a0mali\u00a0majetok v\u00a0objeme metra kubick\u00e9ho. Tento majetok by r\u00e1stol be\u017en\u00fdm glob\u00e1lnym rastom 4,3% ro\u010dne. Ak\u00fd ve\u013ek\u00fd by bol tento majetok po troch tis\u00edcro\u010diach? Ani va\u0161e najoptimistickej\u0161ie odhady by sa nepribl\u00ed\u017eili skuto\u010dn\u00e9mu \u010d\u00edslu. Objem majetku Egyp\u0165anov by dosiahol ve\u013ekos\u0165 nieko\u013eko bili\u00f3nov na\u0161ich galaxi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0\u010do tak exponenci\u00e1lny rast popul\u00e1cie? \u010co keby Egyp\u0165ania r\u00e1stli o\u00a01% ro\u010dne? Ich popul\u00e1cia by po troch tis\u00edcro\u010diach dosiahla \u00farove\u0148 9 bili\u00f3n-n\u00e1sobku ich p\u00f4vodn\u00e9ho stavu. Jednoducho, \u017eiadny exponenci\u00e1lny rast nie je udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd. My v\u0161ak \u017eijeme v\u00a0takomto svete a\u00a0in\u00fd si nevieme predstavi\u0165. Nie\u010do mus\u00ed povoli\u0165 \u2013 bu\u010f realita alebo na\u0161a predstava bud\u00facnosti.<\/p>\n

Koniec lacn\u00fdch komod\u00edt<\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u017e doteraz veci i\u0161li hladko. Vedeck\u00fd pokrok a\u00a0lacn\u00e9\u00a0suroviny n\u00e1m dod\u00e1vali pocit, \u017ee rast je neobmedzen\u00fd. Skuto\u010dne, od roku 1900 a\u017e do roku 2000 ceny komod\u00edt a\u017e na obdobie svetov\u00fdch vojen dlhodobo klesali. Po\u010das t\u00fdchto sto rokov sme videli priemern\u00fd pokles cien komod\u00edt o\u00a0viac ako 1% ro\u010dne. A\u00a0pr\u00e1ve lacn\u00e1 ropa bola t\u00fdm z\u00e1kladn\u00fdm k\u013e\u00fa\u010dom k\u00a0\u00faspechu. \u013dudstvo zrazu dostalo k\u00a0dispoz\u00edci\u00ed prakticky neobmedzen\u00fd zdroj energie a\u00a0t\u00e1to lacn\u00e1 energia tla\u010dila dopredu n\u00e1\u0161 rozvoj. Odhady hovoria o\u00a0tom, \u017ee keby sme nemali ropu, na\u0161e vedeck\u00e9 poznanie by nikdy neprekro\u010dilo hranicu 20. storo\u010dia.<\/p>\n

No na rope nastal v\u00a070. rokoch zlom a\u00a0jej cena sa odp\u00fatala od ostatn\u00fdch komod\u00edt a\u00a0za\u010dala r\u00e1s\u0165. Mo\u017eno aj to je d\u00f4vodom, pre\u010do od tohto obdobia vid\u00edme pokles\u00a0v re\u00e1lnych pr\u00edjmoch obyvate\u013estva. A\u00a0\u010do je hor\u0161ie, od za\u010diatku nov\u00e9ho mil\u00e9nia sa klesaj\u00faci trend komod\u00edt oto\u010dil a\u00a0tie za\u010dali dramaticky r\u00e1s\u0165. Spolo\u010dnos\u0165 GMO vypo\u010d\u00edtala, \u017ee existuje pravdepodobnos\u0165 iba 1:2200000 na to, \u017ee s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd n\u00e1rast ceny \u017eeleza je iba korekcia v\u00a0dlhodobom klesaj\u00facom trende. Jednoducho, \u0161tatistika n\u00e1m takmer s\u00a0istotou hovor\u00ed, \u017ee svet za zmenil \u2013 komodity u\u017e nikdy nebud\u00fa lacn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Svet v\u00a0novej paradigme<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00a0rastu komod\u00edt rozhodne prispela \u010c\u00edna svojim \u0161ialen\u00fdm n\u00e1kupom v\u0161etk\u00e9ho pevn\u00e9ho. T\u00e1 vytvorila z\u00a0komod\u00edt bublinu. Aj ke\u010f bublina m\u00f4\u017ee praskn\u00fa\u0165, dlhodob\u00fd trend je jednozna\u010dn\u00fd \u2013 hore. N\u00e1sledky bud\u00fa neprijemn\u00e9 \u2013 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd rast pri st\u00e1le rast\u00facom mno\u017estve svetov\u00e9ho obyvate\u013estva. A\u00a0to v\u0161etko v\u00a0\u010dase\u00a0ekonomickej kr\u00edzy, kedy u\u017e aj tak rast kles\u00e1 a\u00a0ohrozuje stabilitu cel\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00e9ho sektora a\u00a0t\u00fdm p\u00e1dom cel\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0nezd\u00e1 sa, \u017ee by existovalo nejak\u00e9 r\u00fdchle rie\u0161enie. Ak sa pozrieme na odhadovan\u00e9 svetov\u00e9 z\u00e1soby z\u00e1kladn\u00fdch komod\u00edt, zist\u00edme ve\u013ek\u00fd \u0161ok \u2013 m\u00ed\u0148aj\u00fa sa r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie, ako si mysl\u00edme. Pod\u013ea univerzity v\u00a0Yale pri pokra\u010duj\u00facom raste by mohli by\u0165 do dvoch dek\u00e1d vy\u010derpan\u00e9 zn\u00e1me z\u00e1soby striebra, platiny alebo hlin\u00edka. Za \u010fal\u0161iu dek\u00e1du by sa mohol vy\u010derpa\u0165 ur\u00e1n alebo zinok. M\u00f4\u017ee to znie\u0165 ako katastrofick\u00fd scen\u00e1r, no prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t v\u00a0hist\u00f3rii sa stalo, \u017ee ceny komod\u00edt za\u010dali rastom potvrdzova\u0165 t\u00fato domnienku. Je to prv\u00fdm znamen\u00edm toho, \u017ee sa nie\u010do skuto\u010dne deje.<\/p>\n

Ne\u010dakajme z\u00e1chranu od politikov. Ich mana\u017ement s\u00fa\u010dasnej kr\u00edzy ukazuje neschopnos\u0165 porozumie\u0165 pr\u00ed\u010dine a\u00a0povahe probl\u00e9mu. A\u017e ke\u010f ceny bud\u00fa pr\u00edli\u0161 vysoko a z\u00e1soby komod\u00edt na dlhodob\u00fdch minim\u00e1ch, a\u017e vtedy zistia, \u017ee je probl\u00e9m. Ak sa to skombinuje s\u00a0pokra\u010duj\u00facou ekonomickou depresiou, t\u00ed agres\u00edvnej\u0161\u00ed z\u00a0nich sa m\u00f4\u017eu uch\u00fdli\u0165 k\u00a0\u00fatekom z\u00a0reality vojensk\u00fdmi konfliktami. Doteraz krajiny ako \u010c\u00edna hromadili komodity a\u00a0kupovali si africk\u00e9 krajiny. A ak za\u010dn\u00fa export\u00e9ri po vzore Iraku po\u017eadova\u0165 vy\u0161\u0161iu cenu za svoje komodity, tie m\u00f4\u017eu \u00eds\u0165 v\u00fdrazne hore a\u00a0sp\u00f4sobova\u0165 nedostatky na\u00a0trhu.<\/p>\n

Kr\u00edza a\u00a0komodity<\/span><\/p>\n

Nepokra\u010dovanie kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania a\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e1 bublina na komodit\u00e1ch d\u00e1va \u0161ancu na v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed pokles ich ceny. Ak by sa tak stalo, bude to pravdepodobne poslednou mo\u017enos\u0165ou nak\u00fapi\u0165 lacn\u00e9 komodity. Potom, ke\u010f nastane vojna o\u00a0komodity, u\u017e bude pravdepodobne ve\u013emi neskoro na ich n\u00e1kup, ke\u010f\u017ee svet sa bude\u00a0topi\u0165\u00a0v\u00a0\u00faplne in\u00fdch probl\u00e9moch.<\/p>\n

Autor: Ronald I\u017eip \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:\u00a0finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0160tatistika takmer s istotou hovor\u00ed, \u017ee svet za zmenil \u2013 komodity u\u017e nikdy nebud\u00fa lacn\u00e9. Bolo to 28. j\u00fala 1914, kedy sa svet po 100 rokoch mieru prebudil do prvej … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1240"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1240"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1242,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1240\/revisions\/1242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}