{"id":1226,"date":"2011-05-12T10:26:39","date_gmt":"2011-05-12T10:26:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1226"},"modified":"2011-05-12T10:26:39","modified_gmt":"2011-05-12T10:26:39","slug":"ak-padnu-ateny-padne-i-lisabon-komentar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/ak-padnu-ateny-padne-i-lisabon-komentar\/","title":{"rendered":"Ak padn\u00fa At\u00e9ny, padne i Lisabon (koment\u00e1r)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gr\u00e9ci sa dostali na cestu, z ktorej niet \u00faniku a stali sa otrokom eur\u00f3pskych politikov a b\u00e1nk.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Gr\u00e9cko v plame\u0148och soci\u00e1lnych nepokojov<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"vlajka\"V\u010deraj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj na\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00fdch\u00a0trhoch priniesol op\u00e4tovn\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1rast rizikovej averzie, \u010doho v\u00fdsledkom boli zisky USD. Zelen\u00e1 bankovka je st\u00e1le synonymom rizika a bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm pr\u00edstavom pre investorov (cez reverzn\u00fd tok invest\u00edcii z vy\u0161\u0161ie \u00faro\u010den\u00fdch akt\u00edv). V\u00fdsledkom bol op\u00e4tovn\u00fd prepad EURUSD k nov\u00fdm 6-t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148ov\u00fdm minim\u00e1m na 1,4180\/60. K\u013e\u00fa\u010dom je st\u00e1le rizikov\u00fd v\u00fdh\u013ead pre Gr\u00e9cko a Portugalsko.<\/p>\n

Gr\u00e9cko by malo dosta\u0165 nov\u00fd \u00faver vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 60-100 mld. eur v kombin\u00e1cii od EU a MMF. Celkov\u00e9 HDP Gr\u00e9cka pod\u013ea Svetovej banky bolo za rok 2010 330 mld. USD (235 mld. EUR, projekcie pre rok 2011 228 mld. eur), \u010do pri tohtoro\u010dnej spl\u00e1tke takmer 42 mld. eur je alarmuj\u00face \u010d\u00edslo (do roku 2015\u00a0m\u00e1\u00a0gr\u00e9cka dlhov\u00e1 slu\u017eba splati\u0165 objem 100% HDP), do roku 2019 takmer 400 mld. eur. Ka\u017ed\u00fd piaty rok tak Gr\u00e9ci str\u00e1caj\u00fa jeden rok, \u010do len bude navr\u0161ova\u0165 soci\u00e1lne a spolo\u010densk\u00e9 nepokoje v Gr\u00e9cku.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdh\u013ead v\u00fdvoja HDP gr\u00e9ckej ekonomiky<\/em><\/p>\n

\"GDP\"<\/p>\n

Gr\u00e9cke otroctvo<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea predikci\u00ed gr\u00e9ckeho ministerstva financi\u00ed by pr\u00edjmy \u0161t\u00e1tneho rozpo\u010dtu v roku 2011 mali dosiahnu\u0165 42,2% HDP (97,02 mld. EURo) a v\u00fddaje 49,7% HDP (115 mld. EURo). Gr\u00e9ci tak tento rok na spl\u00e1tky \u00faverov daj\u00fa 43% svojich celkov\u00fdch pr\u00edjmov, \u010do u\u017e nem\u00e1 naozaj \u017eiadnu ekonomick\u00fa logiku. Ak niekto u\u017e pri s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovniach nie je schopn\u00fd spl\u00e1ca\u0165 svoje z\u00e1v\u00e4zky, nov\u00fd \u00faver mu ur\u010dite nevyrie\u0161i probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017eno kr\u00e1tkodobo pri aj najoptimistickej\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdh\u013eadoch pre Gr\u00e9cko je\u00a0 nov\u00fd \u00faver vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 100 mld. eur vykryt\u00edm ich probl\u00e9mov do\u00a0konca\u00a0roka 2013, \u010do v\u0161ak potom? Pr\u00edde finan\u010dn\u00e1 pomoc Gr\u00e9cku \u010d\u00edslo 3, \u010d\u00edslo 4, popieraj\u00fa sa tu v\u0161etky zdrav\u00e9 a logick\u00e9 z\u00e1kony ekonomiky a vo\u013en\u00e9ho trhu. Je nutn\u00e9 tla\u010di\u0165 Gr\u00e9kov k \u010fal\u0161iemu\u00a0 \u00faveru, u\u017e pochybujeme o tom, \u017ee to Gr\u00e9ci vlastne chc\u00fa. Bankov\u00e9 a \u00faverov\u00e9 otroctvo sa tak naplno prejavuje a ich prvou a nie ur\u010dite poslednou obe\u0165ou bud\u00fa oby\u010dajn\u00ed Gr\u00e9ci.<\/p>\n

Gr\u00e9cki ob\u010dania neuvidia ani jeden euroocent z finan\u010dnej pomoci v\u0161etko to p\u00f4jde komer\u010dn\u00fdm bank\u00e1m (verite\u013eom), ktor\u00e9 tak bud\u00fa op\u00e4\u0165 nakupova\u0165 \u0161t\u00e1tne dlhopisy kraj\u00edn od politikov, ktor\u00ed vn\u00fatili Gr\u00e9kom \u00faver a zabezpe\u010dili bank\u00e1m zdroje (kr\u00e1sny kolobeh). Gr\u00e9ci sa dostali na cestu, z ktorej niet \u00faniku a stali sa otrokom eur\u00f3pskych politikov, eur\u00f3pskych b\u00e1nk, v\u00fdsledkom bude predaj n\u00e1rodn\u00e9ho majetku a bohatstva. Bolestiv\u00e1 cena za 10-rokov fi\u0161k\u00e1lneho ob\u017eerstva, ale op\u00e4\u0165 sa potvrdilo, \u017ee \u00favery s\u00fa dobr\u00fd radca, ale zl\u00fd p\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Graf projekci\u00ed pr\u00edjmov a v\u00fddajov v% k HDP<\/em><\/p>\n

\"vydaje\"<\/p>\n

Ak padn\u00fa At\u00e9ny, padne i Lisabon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Okrem Gr\u00e9cka trhy zamestn\u00e1vaj\u00fa inform\u00e1cie i o Portugalsku. Ratingov\u00e1\u00a0agent\u00fara\u00a0S&P pohrozila, \u017ee ak \u010das\u0165 zdrojov z pr\u00edpadnej finan\u010dnej pomoci Portugalsku p\u00f4jde na san\u00e1ciu bankov\u00e9ho sektora, automaticky zn\u00ed\u017ei rating Portugalska. O v\u0161etkom by sa malo rozhodn\u00fa\u0165 na ECOFINe (ministri financi\u00ed E\u00da) u\u017e bud\u00faci t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 (16-17.m\u00e1j) a pr\u00e1ve tento term\u00edn bude d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fd i pre nov\u00fd gr\u00e9cky \u00faver.<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fdm pozit\u00edvom posledn\u00fdch hod\u00edn pre EURO je, \u017ee vo F\u00ednsku sa men\u00ed situ\u00e1cia ka\u017ed\u00fdm\u00a0d\u0148om\u00a0a aktu\u00e1lne je v\u00fdh\u013ead naklonen\u00fd sk\u00f4r pre \u201e\u00c1NO\u201c finan\u010dnej podpore Portugalsku.\u00a0 Trhy tak maj\u00fa jasno na bud\u00faci t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148, ak Gr\u00e9cko nedostane \u00faver, padn\u00fa At\u00e9ny a potom sa tiahne na Lisabon.<\/p>\n

Barik\u00e1dy pred euroz\u00f3nou<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Viem u\u017e, kto stoj\u00ed na v\u00fddavkovej strane eur\u00f3pskych da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edkov, kto to v\u0161ak v\u0161etko zatiahne a ak\u00e9 s\u00fa mo\u017enosti e\u0161te finan\u010dn\u00e9ho valu \u2013 eurovalu I (plat\u00ed do polovice 2013). Barik\u00e1dy pred At\u00e9nami, Lisabonom a Dublin dosahuj\u00fa v\u00fd\u0161ku 864,8 mld.eur. Celkov\u00fd z\u00e1chrann\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt euroz\u00f3ny k tejto chv\u00edli pozost\u00e1va z\u00a0864,8 mld. eur<\/strong> (440 mld. EFSF, 60 mld. EFSM, 280 mld. MMF, 84,8 mld. bilater\u00e1lne \u00favery).<\/p>\n

Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edmi poskytovate\u013emi zdrojov cez EFSF s\u00fa Nemci, Franc\u00fazi, Taliani, \u0160panieli, Holan\u010fania, zo strany MMF s\u00fa to USA, Japonsko a op\u00e4\u0165 Nemecko a\u00a0 Franc\u00fazsko. Z celkov\u00e9ho bal\u00ed\u010dka 864,8 mld. eur je u\u017e vy\u010derpan\u00fdch 110 mld. pre Gr\u00e9cko, 67,5 mld. pre \u00cdrsko a o\u010dak\u00e1va sa 78 mld. pre Portugalsko, zo zvy\u0161n\u00fdch zdrojov sa d\u00e1va vyu\u017ei\u0165 u\u017e iba 417,3 mld. (efekt\u00edvne zdroje), zvy\u0161n\u00fdch 190 mld. eur sl\u00fa\u017ei ako garancie pre udr\u017eanie si AAA ratingu eurovalu 1. Tak\u017ee e\u0161te takmer\u00a0420 mld. eur <\/strong>je k dispoz\u00edcii, ak dostan\u00fa At\u00e9ny \u010fal\u0161\u00edch 100 mld. eur, znamen\u00e1 to iba jedno… \u201eMadrid si u\u017e nem\u00f4\u017ee dovoli\u0165 zakopnutie<\/strong><\/em>\u201c.
\n
\nGrafick\u00e9 zobrazenie eurovalu I<\/em><\/p>\n

\"euroval\"
\n<\/em><\/div>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdh\u013ead<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00fd fundament\u00e1lny kalend\u00e1r z E\u00da je pr\u00e1zdny a trhy bud\u00fa zauj\u00edma\u0165 prim\u00e1rne \u010fal\u0161ie inform\u00e1cie o rie\u0161en\u00ed gr\u00e9ckeho nekone\u010dn\u00e9ho fi\u0161k\u00e1lneho probl\u00e9mu. Z fundamentov sk\u00f4r trhy bud\u00fa sledova\u0165 americk\u00e9 d\u00e1ta maloobchodn\u00fdch tr\u017eieb a vyst\u00fapenie prezidenta FEDu Bernankeho pred US sen\u00e1tom (syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 rizik\u00e1). Technicky sme prelomili siln\u00e9 p\u00e1smo\u00a01,4270\/50 <\/strong>EURUSD, \u010do otv\u00e1ra potenci\u00e1l prielomu v\u010deraj\u0161\u00edch min\u00edm na \u00farovni 1,4180\/60 a st\u00e1leho pribli\u017eovania k 1,40 EURUSD.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00edpadn\u00e9 tlaky nadol bud\u00fa podporova\u0165 negat\u00edvne inform\u00e1cie o \u00favere pre Gr\u00e9cko, riziko neschv\u00e1lenia finan\u010dnej pomoci Portugalsku a negat\u00edvne d\u00e1ta z USA (risk off). Pozit\u00edvum pre EURo sa h\u013ead\u00e1 \u0165a\u017eko iba pr\u00edpadn\u00e1 euf\u00f3ria z \u010fal\u0161\u00edch detailov gr\u00e9ckeho \u00faveru (cynizmus), F\u00ednske potvrdenie pre piatkov\u00e9 \u201e\u00c1NO\u201c Portugalsku a siln\u00e9 d\u00e1ta z US ekonomiky, resp. Bernankeho nazna\u010denie pokra\u010dovania uvo\u013enenej menovej politiky FEDu (cez rast komod\u00edt bude tla\u010di\u0165 na defenz\u00edvu USD). K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 rezistencia na \u00farovni 1,4250\/70 EURUSD, ale a\u017e prielom 1,4300\/20 EURUSD by sme kr\u00e1tkodobo vn\u00edmali ako impulz pre rast.<\/p>\n

\"EURUSD\"<\/p>\n

Autor: Val\u00e9r Demjan \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:\u00a0finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gr\u00e9ci sa dostali na cestu, z ktorej niet \u00faniku a stali sa otrokom eur\u00f3pskych politikov a b\u00e1nk. Gr\u00e9cko v plame\u0148och soci\u00e1lnych nepokojov V\u010deraj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj na\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00fdch\u00a0trhoch priniesol op\u00e4tovn\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1rast rizikovej … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1226"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1226"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1233,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1226\/revisions\/1233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}