{"id":1221,"date":"2011-05-11T14:02:05","date_gmt":"2011-05-11T14:02:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1221"},"modified":"2011-05-11T14:02:05","modified_gmt":"2011-05-11T14:02:05","slug":"vystupenie-z-eurozony-drzte-si-klobuky-bude-to-jazda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/vystupenie-z-eurozony-drzte-si-klobuky-bude-to-jazda\/","title":{"rendered":"Vyst\u00fapenie z euroz\u00f3ny: Dr\u017ete si klob\u00faky, bude to jazda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Odchod z euroz\u00f3ny nie je nerealizovate\u013en\u00fd, ale jeho vplyvy mo\u017eno pop\u00edsa\u0165 za drastick\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-1222\" title=\"bankovka v ohni\" src=\"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/dolar_euro_poziar_bankovka_s.jpg\" alt=\"bankovka v ohni\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" \/>Ako sa op\u00fa\u0161\u0165a euroz\u00f3na? Presn\u00fd scen\u00e1r si nikto predstavi\u0165 nedok\u00e1\u017ee, preto\u017ee s n\u00edm pri zav\u00e1dzan\u00ed spolo\u010dnej eur\u00f3pskej meny nikto nepo\u010d\u00edtal, ale \u00fanijn\u00ed aj gr\u00e9cki \u00faradn\u00edci toho po piatkovom tajnom rokovan\u00ed svojich \u0161\u00e9fov cez v\u00edkend asi ve\u013ea nenaspali.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdstup z euroz\u00f3ny rozhodne nie je nerealizovate\u013en\u00fd, ale jeho vplyvy mo\u017eno aj s najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou d\u00e1vkou optimizmu pop\u00edsa\u0165 za drastick\u00e9. Aby sa zabr\u00e1nilo\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00e9mu\u00a0chaosu, musela by by\u0165 staronov\u00e1 drachma zaveden\u00e1 naraz a plo\u0161ne. Bankov\u00e9 vklady aj \u00favery sa v takom pr\u00edpade musia previes\u0165 v rovnakej\u00a0dobe a rovnakom pomere. Odstra\u0161uj\u00facim pr\u00edkladom je Argent\u00edna, ktor\u00e1 v roku 2001 opustila re\u017eim pevn\u00e9ho kurzu naviazan\u00e9ho na americk\u00fd dol\u00e1r. V snahe nakloni\u0165 si sporite\u013eov vtedy vl\u00e1da vyhl\u00e1sila, \u017ee vklady sa musia prev\u00e1dzkova\u0165 vo v\u00fdhodnej\u0161om pomere ako \u00favery. N\u00e1sledn\u00e9 straty, ktor\u00e9 museli finan\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fastavy za\u00fa\u010dtova\u0165, potom e\u0161te viac ochromili argent\u00ednsky bankov\u00fd syst\u00e9m, \u010do viedlo k zamrznutiu trhu s \u00favermi.<\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e9cka centr\u00e1lna banka by musela ve\u013emi r\u00fdchlo do obehu dosta\u0165 zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estvo minc\u00ed a bankoviek, \u010falej stanovi\u0165 \u00farokov\u00fa mieru, infla\u010dn\u00fd cie\u013e, a hlavne ofici\u00e1lny v\u00fdmenn\u00fd kurz vo\u010di hlavn\u00fdm svetov\u00fdm men\u00e1m. Ten, nech u\u017e bude ak\u00fdko\u013evek, ihne\u010f po za\u010dat\u00ed obchodovania prepadne a nov\u00e1 gr\u00e9cka mena bude vo\u010di euru r\u00fdchlo str\u00e1ca\u0165 hodnotu.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdh\u013ead na de facto znehodnotenia \u00faspor iste vydes\u00ed nejedn\u00e9ho Gr\u00e9ka, ktor\u00fd sa teda bude sna\u017ei\u0165 e\u0161te zav\u010dasu si svoje celo\u017eivotne ch\u00fdbaj\u00face peniaze vybra\u0165 a ulo\u017ei\u0165 v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm pred\u00edde n\u00fatenej konverzii. Aby sa zabr\u00e1nilo krachu b\u00e1nk, ktor\u00e9 by masov\u00fd exodus sporite\u013eov sotva ust\u00e1li, bud\u00fa musie\u0165 by\u0165 zaveden\u00e9 limity na v\u00fdbery z \u00fa\u010dtov, medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9 transakcie a sn\u00e1\u010f aj cestovanie. To je v Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanii, ktorej piliermi s\u00fa vo\u013en\u00fd pohyb os\u00f4b, kapit\u00e1lu, tovarov a slu\u017eieb, dos\u0165 \u0165a\u017eko predstavite\u013en\u00e9, av\u0161ak nie neuskuto\u010dnite\u013en\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>A ako sa asi k o\u010dak\u00e1vanej konverzii postavia zahrani\u010dn\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti, ktor\u00e9 v krajine investovali miliardy eur? Ur\u010dite sa bud\u00fa sna\u017ei\u0165 maxim\u00e1lne obmedzi\u0165 prevody pe\u0148az\u00ed smerom do Gr\u00e9cka, kde hroz\u00ed znehodnotenie, a v \u010do mo\u017eno najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej miere bud\u00fa vyv\u00e1dza\u0165 kapit\u00e1l z krajiny. Pre obchod a ekonomiku v\u0161eobecne to nie s\u00fa pr\u00edli\u0161 l\u00e1kav\u00e9 vyhliadky. Rad firiem aj sporite\u013eov sa navy\u0161e ur\u010dite bude proti konverzii br\u00e1ni\u0165 na s\u00fade, \u010do gr\u00e9ckym bank\u00e1m na istote rozhodne nedod\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>Zahrani\u010dn\u00e9\u00a0banky (teda najm\u00e4 nemeck\u00e9, franc\u00fazske a holandsk\u00e9) dr\u017eiace vo svojich portf\u00f3li\u00e1ch gr\u00e9cke dlhopisy sa po prechode na nov\u00fa menu m\u00f4\u017eu so svojimi peniazmi nadobro rozl\u00fa\u010di\u0165. Vl\u00e1da v At\u00e9nach nebude pri novom silne devalvovanom kurze absol\u00fatne schopn\u00e1 dlhy denominovan\u00e9 v eur\u00e1ch splati\u0165. Nasledova\u0165 m\u00f4\u017eu \u010fal\u0161ie \u017ealoby a roky sa vle\u010d\u00face \u0165ahanice na s\u00fadoch.<\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e9cka vl\u00e1da bude po cel\u00e9 obdobie odrezan\u00e1 od zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch zdrojov financovania. Krajina so znovu z\u00edskanou menovou suverenitou v\u0161ak m\u00f4\u017ee za\u010da\u0165 vyd\u00e1va\u0165 zmenky o men\u0161ej hodnote, ktor\u00fdmi bude treba plati\u0165 zamestnancov alebo financova\u0165 n\u00e1kupy tovarov a slu\u017eieb. Sl\u00fa\u017eili by ako z\u00e1rodok novej meny a vo\u010di zvy\u0161n\u00fdm eur\u00e1m v obehu by sa obchodovali s ur\u010dit\u00fdm diskontom, ktor\u00e9ho v\u00fd\u0161ka by zhruba nazna\u010dovala rozsah devalv\u00e1cie, ktor\u00fd nov\u00fa menu \u010dak\u00e1. Ke\u010f\u017ee by sa kv\u00f4li \u00faniku kapit\u00e1lu z krajiny pe\u0148a\u017en\u00e1 z\u00e1soba r\u00fdchlo zmen\u0161ovala, zmenky by sa pravdepodobne r\u00fdchlo uchytili. Ope\u010diatkovan\u00e9 proviz\u00f3rne potvrdenky, ktor\u00e9 vyd\u00e1valo Buenos Aires, boli v obehu mesiace pred krachom argent\u00ednskej meny.<\/p>\n<p>\u010co teda Gr\u00e9kov \u017eenie k tak\u00e9mu z\u00fafal\u00e9mu rie\u0161eniu? Vyhliadky na roky dramatick\u00fdch \u00fasporn\u00fdch opatren\u00ed, vysokej nezamestnanosti a spl\u00e1cania hory dlhov u\u017e pravdepodobne ved\u00facich predstavite\u013eov presved\u010dili, \u017ee hor\u0161ie to u\u017e by\u0165 nem\u00f4\u017ee. Odchod z euroz\u00f3ny by krajine aspo\u0148\u00a0u\u0161etril\u00a0bolestiv\u00e9ho zni\u017eovania miezd. Fronty pred bankami, zatvoren\u00e9 hranice, bankrot a soci\u00e1lne nepokoje v s\u00fa\u010dasnej situ\u00e1cii zrejme nevyzeraj\u00fa tie\u017e desivo.<\/p>\n<p>Autor: V\u00e1clav Trejbal \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj: <a title=\"finweb.hnonline.sk\" href=\"http:\/\/finweb.hnonline.sk\/c3-51814280-kP0000_d-vystupenie-z-eurozony-drzte-si-klobuky-bude-to-jazda\" target=\"_blank\">finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Odchod z euroz\u00f3ny nie je nerealizovate\u013en\u00fd, ale jeho vplyvy mo\u017eno pop\u00edsa\u0165 za drastick\u00e9. Ako sa op\u00fa\u0161\u0165a euroz\u00f3na? Presn\u00fd scen\u00e1r si nikto predstavi\u0165 nedok\u00e1\u017ee, preto\u017ee s n\u00edm pri zav\u00e1dzan\u00ed spolo\u010dnej eur\u00f3pskej &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/vystupenie-z-eurozony-drzte-si-klobuky-bude-to-jazda\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1221"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1221"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1221\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1224,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1221\/revisions\/1224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}