{"id":1194,"date":"2011-05-05T10:20:23","date_gmt":"2011-05-05T10:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1194"},"modified":"2011-05-05T10:20:23","modified_gmt":"2011-05-05T10:20:23","slug":"fed-bude-zrejme-tlacit-dalej","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/fed-bude-zrejme-tlacit-dalej\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed bude zrejme tla\u010di\u0165 \u010falej"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fed pravdepodobne prist\u00fapi aj k tretej vlne QE, ale v ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch objemoch, tvrd\u00ed Zolt\u00e1n Csiba z Capital Markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"dolare\"Kedy pod\u013ea v\u00e1s Fed prist\u00fapi k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm sadzb\u00e1m, bola by u\u017e ekonomika na ne pripraven\u00e1?<\/strong>
\nPosledn\u00e9, apr\u00edlov\u00e9 zasadnutie Fedu prinieslo nezmenen\u00fa \u00farokov\u00fa sadzbu na \u00farovni 0,25 %, ako aj avizovanie nezvy\u0161ovania z\u00e1kladnej \u00farokovej sadzby v\u00a0bud\u00facnosti (po\u010das nieko\u013ek\u00fdch zasadnut\u00ed), potvrdil v\u0161ak koniec QE2 do konca tohto kvart\u00e1lu. Pred zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokovej sadzby mus\u00ed FED dohliadnu\u0165 na v\u00fdvoj infl\u00e1cie, t\u00e1 m\u00f4\u017ee v\u00a0bud\u00facnosti zaznamena\u0165\u00a0rast\u00a0vplyvom uvo\u013enenia finan\u010dn\u00fdch prostriedkov z\u00a0QE, ktor\u00fdch v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 st\u00e1le \u201eodpo\u010d\u00edva\u201c vo forme bankov\u00fdch rezerv. Aj ke\u010f FED tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161enie infl\u00e1cie na 2,7 % v v prvom kvart\u00e1li tohto roka je\u00a0do\u010dasn\u00fdm javom, sk\u00f4r ako nebude vedie\u0165 kontrolova\u0165 jej v\u00fdvoj, ku zvy\u0161ovaniu sadzieb neprist\u00fapi. Bez poch\u00fdb s\u00a0t\u00fdm po\u010dk\u00e1 aj do konca tohto roka.<\/p>\n

Je prudk\u00fd pokles dol\u00e1ra a rast zlata len kr\u00e1tkodobou reakciou?<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00a0dlhodobom \u010dasovom horizonte po\u010d\u00edta FED so stabiln\u00fdm v\u00fdvojom infl\u00e1cie, s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia v\u0161ak dol\u00e1ru neprispieva, pr\u00edpustn\u00e9 s\u00fa aj \u010fal\u0161ie poklesy americkej meny, ale komodity ako\u00a0zlato, \u010di ropa maj\u00fa n\u00e1beh na \u010fal\u0161\u00ed rast.\u00a0Napriek tvrdeniam americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financi\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed dol\u00e1r Amerike vyhovuje, preto\u017ee podporuje export. Ke\u010f\u017ee v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina americk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dneho dlhu je denominovan\u00e1 v\u00a0USD, kurz americk\u00e9ho dol\u00e1ra nie je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fd pre US vl\u00e1du, aj napriek tvrdeniu, \u017ee chce siln\u00fa a\u00a0stabiln\u00fa menu. O\u00a0hodnotu dol\u00e1ra sa musia sk\u00f4r ob\u00e1va\u0165 \u010c\u00edna a\u00a0Japonsko.<\/p>\n

Bola pod\u013ea v\u00e1s\u00a0druh\u00e1 <\/strong>vlna kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania efekt\u00edvna pre ekonomiku, bude Fed prin\u00faten\u00fd nakoniec aj k \u010fal\u0161ej vlne QE?<\/strong><\/p>\n

QE 2 bolo nutn\u00e9 na prefinancovanie vl\u00e1dnych v\u00fddavkov, FED nakupoval vl\u00e1dne dlhopisy, bez QE by bolo do\u0161lo k\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161iemu n\u00e1rastu sadzieb. FED s\u00a0vysokou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou prist\u00fapi aj k\u00a03. vlne QE, ale v ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch objemoch. Snahou vl\u00e1dy je dosta\u0165 deficit vl\u00e1dnych v\u00fddavkov pod 5 % HDP, pokia\u013e sa tak nestane, FED bude n\u00faten\u00fd na\u010falej nakupova\u0165 vl\u00e1dne dlhopisy a\u00a0to vy\u00fasti do QE3.<\/p>\n

Bude sa tlak na rast cien zvy\u0161ova\u0165?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rast infl\u00e1cie, samozrejme, bude pokra\u010dova\u0165 kv\u00f4li rastu HDP v\u00a0Braz\u00edlii, \u010c\u00edne a\u00a0Indii, preto\u017ee rastie dopyt po komodit\u00e1ch vo svete. D\u00e1 sa to podlo\u017ei\u0165 jednoduch\u00fdm pr\u00edkladom zvy\u0161uj\u00faceho sa po\u010dtu predan\u00fdch komer\u010dn\u00fdch\u00a0vozidiel\u00a0v\u00a0\u010c\u00edne, ktor\u00fd v\u00a0marci dosiahol nov\u00e9 maximum vy\u0161e 480-tis\u00edc predan\u00fdch \u00e1ut, ktor\u00fdch majitelia, samozrejme, potrebuj\u00fa tankova\u0165.<\/p>\n

Kde vid\u00edte hlavn\u00e9 rizik\u00e1 ukon\u010denia vlny kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania v\u00a0j\u00fani?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rizikom by bolo, \u017ee by po ukon\u010den\u00ed tohto programu muselo d\u00f4js\u0165 k\u00a0rastu \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb za \u00fa\u010delom prefinancovania vl\u00e1dneho dlhu.<\/p>\n

\u010co pod\u013ea v\u00e1s viedlo Bernankeho k tomu, aby poru\u0161il storo\u010dn\u00fa trad\u00edciu a verejne vyst\u00fapil?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Je to ur\u010dit\u00fd typ snahy o\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161enie transparentnosti Fedu v\u00a0o\u010diach\u00a0investorov.<\/p>\n

Autor: Zolt\u00e1n Csiba \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed pravdepodobne prist\u00fapi aj k tretej vlne QE, ale v ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch objemoch, tvrd\u00ed Zolt\u00e1n Csiba z Capital Markets. Kedy pod\u013ea v\u00e1s Fed prist\u00fapi k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm sadzb\u00e1m, bola by u\u017e ekonomika … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1194"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1194"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1197,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1194\/revisions\/1197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}