{"id":1179,"date":"2011-05-03T12:58:38","date_gmt":"2011-05-03T12:58:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1179"},"modified":"2011-05-03T13:02:43","modified_gmt":"2011-05-03T13:02:43","slug":"bernanke-moze-rast-aj-priskrtit-komentar-dna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/bernanke-moze-rast-aj-priskrtit-komentar-dna\/","title":{"rendered":"Bernanke m\u00f4\u017ee rast aj pri\u0161krti\u0165 (koment\u00e1r d\u0148a)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Monet\u00e1rne stimuly americkej centr\u00e1lnej banky m\u00f4\u017eu vies\u0165 aj k pri\u0161krteniu ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0z\u00e1pisnici z\u00a0posledn\u00e9ho zasadnutia FOMC, ako aj na n\u00e1slednej tla\u010dovej konferencii guvern\u00e9ra FED sa objavili o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 vyjadrenia o\u00a0ponechan\u00ed extr\u00e9mne n\u00edzkych \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb na \u201edlh\u0161\u00ed \u010das\u201c a\u00a0nezmenenom charaktere \u201ev\u00fdrazne akomodat\u00edvnej\u201c menovej politiky. Ben Bernanke vyjadril n\u00e1zor, \u017ee druh\u00e1 vlna kvantitat\u00edvneho uvo\u013e\u0148ovania (QE2) bola doteraz \u00faspe\u0161n\u00e1, a\u00a0to prostredn\u00edctvom nasledovn\u00fdch kan\u00e1lov:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>QE2 pom\u00e1ha udr\u017eiava\u0165 uvo\u013enen\u00e9 podmienky financovania \u2013 FED sa touto cestou zrejme sna\u017e\u00ed o\u00a0rast dopytu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a\u00a0podnikov\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed cez \u00faverov\u00fd kan\u00e1l. Polo\u017eme si ot\u00e1zku: je o\u00a0nov\u00e9 \u00favery skuto\u010dne z\u00e1ujem? Najm\u00e4 v\u00a0situ\u00e1cii, ke\u010f proces \u201edeleveragingu\u201c (t. j. zni\u017eovania dlhov\u00e9ho bremena) je jednou z\u00a0hlavn\u00fdch l\u00edni\u00ed v\u00fdvoja americkej ekonomiky. Ide pritom o\u00a0prirodzen\u00fd proces konsolid\u00e1cie \u00fa\u010dtovn\u00fdch bilanci\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch subjektov po dvoch desa\u0165ro\u010diach\u00a0rastu na dlh. Medzi vidite\u013en\u00e9 prejavy tohto procesu patria napr\u00edklad zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 tvorba\u00faspor alebo n\u00edzky objem nov\u00fdch hypot\u00e9k, a\u00a0to v\u0161etko pri minim\u00e1lnom \u00faro\u010den\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li>QE2 prispelo k\u00a0rastu akciov\u00fdch trhov \u2013 a\u00a0skuto\u010dne, od ozn\u00e1menia mo\u017enosti QE2 koncom augusta 2010 zaznamenali akciov\u00e9 trhy prudk\u00fd rast. Za osem mesiacov vzr\u00e1stol\u00a0index DJIA o\u00a027,7% a\u00a0\u0161ir\u0161\u00ed S&amp;P 500 dokonca o\u00a0viac ako 30%. Pripome\u0148me, \u017ee rast cien akci\u00ed vn\u00edma FED pozit\u00edvne v\u00a0d\u00f4sledku predpokladu p\u00f4sobenia efektu bohatstva (rast cien akci\u00ed \u2013 rast bohatstva dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed \u2013 rast spotreby). Kritici QE2 poukazuj\u00fa na to, \u017ee prudk\u00fd rast akciov\u00fdch trhov v\u00a0posledn\u00fdch mesiacoch je do zna\u010dnej miery podporovan\u00fd \u201evytl\u00e1\u010dac\u00edm efektom\u201c, kedy aktivita FED-u na trhu US treasuries (minim\u00e1lne v\u00fdnosy) viedla k\u00a0odlevu kapit\u00e1lu na rizikovej\u0161ie segmenty finan\u010dn\u00e9ho trhu (akcie, komodity). S\u00a0bl\u00ed\u017eiacim sa z\u00e1verom QE2 m\u00f4\u017ee teda ve\u013emi \u013eahko nasta\u0165 v\u00fdrazn\u00e1 korekcia akciov\u00e9ho trhu.<\/li>\n<li>QE2 prispelo k\u00a0zn\u00ed\u017eeniu volatility na finan\u010dnom trhu a\u00a0t\u00fdm prispieva k\u00a0obnoveniu dlhodobej\u0161ej stability finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>To\u013eko k\u00a0pr\u00ednosom QE2. Kritici toho postupu \u010dasto argumentuj\u00fa, \u017ee jedn\u00fdm z\u00a0d\u00f4sledkov QE2 je tie\u017e komoditn\u00e1 rely. Zaplavovanie trhu novou dol\u00e1rovou likviditou pri takmer nulovom \u00faro\u010den\u00ed p\u00f4\u017ei\u010diek v\u00a0USD na pe\u0148a\u017enom trhu jednozna\u010dne stimuluje k\u00a0invest\u00edci\u00e1m do rizikovej\u0161\u00edch akt\u00edv (akcie, komodity) a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 vedie k\u00a0oslabovaniu dol\u00e1ra vo\u010di men\u00e1m s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm \u00faro\u010den\u00edm (carry trades).<\/p>\n<p>\u013dudovo povedan\u00e9, ceny komod\u00edt denominovan\u00e9 v\u00a0USD v\u00a0takomto prostred\u00ed \u201enem\u00f4\u017eu ner\u00e1s\u0165\u201c. Pravda, guvern\u00e9r Bernanke tento argument popiera tvrden\u00edm, \u017ee rast cien komod\u00edt (najm\u00e4 ropy) je v\u00a0posledn\u00fdch mesiacoch vyvolan\u00fd jednak robustn\u00fdm dopytom r\u00fdchlo rast\u00facich rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa (emerging) ekonom\u00edk, na druhej strane politick\u00fdmi turbulenciami v\u00a0arabskom svete a\u00a0v\u00fdpadkom l\u00edbyjskej produkcie ropy. T\u00e1to argument\u00e1cia v\u0161ak str\u00e1ca na v\u00e1he, ak si uvedom\u00edme, \u017ee Saudsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bia pred nieko\u013ek\u00fdmi d\u0148ami ozn\u00e1mila zn\u00ed\u017eenie produkcie ropy, ke\u010f\u017ee na dodato\u010dn\u00fa produkciu (v s\u00favislosti so snahou nahradi\u0165 v\u00fdpadok l\u00edbyjskej ropy) nedok\u00e1zala n\u00e1js\u0165 dostato\u010dn\u00fd dopyt.<\/p>\n<p>Faktom je, \u017ee ceny priemyseln\u00fdch a po\u013enohospod\u00e1rskych komod\u00edt rast\u00fa, \u010do sa premieta aj do rastu cien v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch vstupov. Na grafe ni\u017e\u0161ie vid\u00edme, \u017ee rast cien v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch vstupov doposia\u013e v\u00fdrobcovia nedok\u00e1zali v\u00a0plnej miere premietnu\u0165 do rastu kone\u010dn\u00fdch (spotrebite\u013esk\u00fdch) cien. Na \u010fal\u0161om grafe vid\u00edme, \u017ee kladn\u00e1 medzera medzi dynamikou PPI a\u00a0CPI sa aktu\u00e1lne pohybuje takmer na najvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farovniach za posledn\u00fdch 30 rokov. Stagnuj\u00faci \u00faverov\u00fd trh a\u00a0vysok\u00e1 nezamestnanos\u0165 s\u00fa faktory, ktor\u00e9 zostruj\u00fa konkuren\u010dn\u00fd boj na strane ponuky a\u00a0vytv\u00e1raj\u00fa bari\u00e9ry rastu spotrebite\u013esk\u00fdch cien. Je zrejm\u00e9, \u017ee sk\u00f4r alebo nesk\u00f4r sa tento nes\u00falad (t. j. ve\u013ek\u00e1 medzera medzi CPI a\u00a0PPI) bude musie\u0165 niekde prejavi\u0165.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-1181\" title=\"1\" src=\"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/16.jpg\" alt=\"1\" width=\"600\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/16.jpg 600w, https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/16-300x155.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-1182\" title=\"2\" src=\"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/22.jpg\" alt=\"2\" width=\"600\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/22.jpg 600w, https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/22-300x155.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Pon\u00faka sa element\u00e1rna \u00favaha, \u017ee r\u00fdchlej\u0161\u00ed rast PPI v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed s\u00a0CPI by mal vytv\u00e1ra\u0165 tlak na mar\u017ee a\u00a0ziskovos\u0165 podnikate\u013esk\u00fdch subjektov. Pri poh\u013eade na rast\u00facu ziskovos\u0165 americk\u00fdch spolo\u010dnost\u00ed obchodovan\u00fdch na burze by sa mohlo zda\u0165, \u017ee tak\u00e1to \u00favaha je vyl\u00fa\u010den\u00e1. Nezab\u00fadajme ale, \u017ee drviv\u00e1 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina podnikate\u013esk\u00fdch subjektov v\u00a0USA nie je obchodovan\u00e1 na\u00a0burze, a\u00a0teda nem\u00e1 povinnos\u0165 pravidelne zverej\u0148ova\u0165 v\u00fdsledky hospod\u00e1renia. Existuje teda\u00a0mo\u017enos\u0165, \u017ee ve\u013ek\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti obchodovan\u00e9 na burze maj\u00fa prostredn\u00edctvom svojho dominantn\u00e9ho postavenia v\u00a0dod\u00e1vate\u013esko-odberate\u013esk\u00fdch vz\u0165ahoch mo\u017enos\u0165 prenies\u0165 bremeno rastu cien v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch vstupov na svojich obchodn\u00fdch partnerov. Zosta\u0148me teda pri tom, \u017ee na niektorom stupni dod\u00e1vate\u013esko \u2013 odberate\u013esk\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov sa mus\u00ed prejavi\u0165 rast\u00faci nes\u00falad medzi cenami v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch vstupov a\u00a0cenami pre kone\u010dn\u00e9ho spotrebite\u013ea.<\/p>\n<p>Firmy tento nes\u00falad m\u00f4\u017eu rie\u0161i\u0165 viacer\u00fdmi sp\u00f4sobmi:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>zmrazenie miezd a\u00a0zastavenie n\u00e1boru nov\u00fdch zamestnancov, a\u017e prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie a\u00a0\u010fal\u0161ia racionaliz\u00e1cia podnikov\u00fdch procesov<\/li>\n<li>obmedzenie investi\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00fddavkov, spomalenie r\u00fdchlosti obehu pe\u0148az\u00ed<\/li>\n<li>prenesenie rastu cien v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch vstupov na spotrebite\u013ea, \u010do by v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti malo za n\u00e1sledok relevantn\u00fd pokles \u017eivotnej \u00farovne dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tradi\u010dn\u00e1 ekon\u00f3mia u\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee v\u0161etky uveden\u00e9 cesty by viedli k\u00a0\u010fal\u0161ej recesii, alebo prinajmen\u0161om strednodobej stagn\u00e1cii ekonomiky. Som toho n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee postupne doch\u00e1dza k\u00a0nafukovaniu komoditnej bubliny, av\u0161ak je ve\u013emi \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 odhadn\u00fa\u0165, v\u00a0akom \u0161t\u00e1diu sa t\u00e1to bublina nach\u00e1dza. Na\u010drtnut\u00fd v\u00fdh\u013ead menovej politiky FED-u nazna\u010duje, \u017ee v\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch mesiacoch k\u00a0jej sp\u013easnutiu ned\u00f4jde.<\/p>\n<p>Autor: Milo\u0161 Hofreiter \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:\u00a0<a title=\"finweb.hnonline.sk\" href=\"http:\/\/finweb.hnonline.sk\/c3-51747640-kP0000_d-bernanke-moze-rast-aj-priskrtit-span-class-koment-komentar-dna-span\" target=\"_blank\">finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Monet\u00e1rne stimuly americkej centr\u00e1lnej banky m\u00f4\u017eu vies\u0165 aj k pri\u0161krteniu ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu. V\u00a0z\u00e1pisnici z\u00a0posledn\u00e9ho zasadnutia FOMC, ako aj na n\u00e1slednej tla\u010dovej konferencii guvern\u00e9ra FED sa objavili o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 vyjadrenia o\u00a0ponechan\u00ed extr\u00e9mne &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/bernanke-moze-rast-aj-priskrtit-komentar-dna\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1179"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1187,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179\/revisions\/1187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}