{"id":1163,"date":"2011-04-26T10:44:28","date_gmt":"2011-04-26T10:44:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1163"},"modified":"2011-04-26T10:46:11","modified_gmt":"2011-04-26T10:46:11","slug":"styri-hrozby-globalnej-ekonomiky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/styri-hrozby-globalnej-ekonomiky\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160tyri hrozby glob\u00e1lnej ekonomiky"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Tri roky po celosvetovej finan\u010dnej kr\u00edze zost\u00e1va glob\u00e1lna ekonomika m\u00e4t\u00facim priestorom.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-1164\" title=\"zemegula\" src=\"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/zemegula_ropa_s.jpg\" alt=\"zemegula\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" \/>Mali by sme \u010derpa\u0165 \u00fatechu z postupn\u00e9ho ozdravovania vyspel\u00fdch kraj\u00edn a z robustn\u00e9ho\u00a0rastuv rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa ekonomik\u00e1ch? Alebo by sme mali h\u013eada\u0165 sp\u00f4soby, ako sa obrni\u0165 pred vysok\u00fdmi cenami ropy, geopolitick\u00fdmi \u0161okmi na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode a neut\u00edchaj\u00facou jadrovou neistotou v Japonsku?<\/p>\n<p>Mnoh\u00ed sa prikl\u00e1\u0148aj\u00fa k prv\u00e9mu poh\u013eadu na svet. Ten sa opiera o viac r\u00fdchlostn\u00fa rastov\u00fa dynamiku, zaost\u00e1vaj\u00facich maj\u00fa postupne dosta\u0165 do tempa hojace sa a zdrav\u00e9 segmenty svetov\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1rstva. K t\u00fdm patria vysoko ziskov\u00e9 nadn\u00e1rodn\u00e9 spolo\u010dnosti, ktor\u00e9 moment\u00e1lne investuj\u00fa a priberaj\u00fa pracuj\u00facich, zachr\u00e1nen\u00e9 banky vyspel\u00fdch ekonom\u00edk spl\u00e1caj\u00face n\u00fadzov\u00e9 z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dky, rozrastaj\u00faca sa stredn\u00e1 a vy\u0161\u0161ia trieda v rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa ekonomik\u00e1ch, ktor\u00e1 kupuje viac tovaru aj slu\u017eieb, zdrav\u0161\u00ed s\u00fakromn\u00fd sektor, ktor\u00fd plat\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161ie dane, a t\u00fdm zmier\u0148uje tlak na vl\u00e1dne rozpo\u010dty, a Nemecko, ekonomick\u00e1 ve\u013emoc Eur\u00f3py, zberaj\u00face plody mnohoro\u010dnej hospod\u00e1rskej re\u0161trukturaliz\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n<p>Mnoho \u010derstv\u00fdch \u00fadajov tento glob\u00e1lny poh\u013ead podporuje. Svet sa skuto\u010dne vydal na cestu postupn\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho o\u017eivenia. Ak toto smerovanie vydr\u017e\u00ed, o\u017eivenie vytvor\u00ed ist\u00fa hybnos\u0165 a zmohutnie \u010do do rozsahu aj \u00fa\u010dinku.<\/p>\n<p>Len\u017ee\u00a0pr\u00e1ve\u00a0toto \u201eak\u201c je prame\u0148om\u00a0druh\u00e9ho, menej ru\u017eov\u00e9ho poh\u013eadu na svet \u2013 poh\u013eadu, ktor\u00fd sa ob\u00e1va ni\u017e\u0161ieho rastu aj vy\u0161\u0161ej infl\u00e1cie. Prek\u00e1\u017eky na ceste zatia\u013e nie s\u00fa nato\u013eko z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9, aby toto o\u017eivenie zadusili, ale len bl\u00e1zon by nad nimi m\u00e1vol rukou. Na mysli m\u00e1m \u0161tyri z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n<p>Po prv\u00e9, a predov\u0161etk\u00fdm, sa svet e\u0161te plne nevyrovnal s ekonomick\u00fdmi d\u00f4sledkami nepokoja na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode a pohr\u00f4m v Japonsku. Tieto udalosti s\u00fa s\u00edce v\u00a0pohybe\u00a0u\u017e t\u00fd\u017edne \u010di mesiace, ale svojimi \u00fa\u010dinkami e\u0161te glob\u00e1lnu ekonomiku v \u00faplnosti nenaru\u0161ili. Nest\u00e1va sa \u010dasto, \u017ee by sa svet boril so stagfla\u010dn\u00fdm rizikom ni\u017e\u0161ieho dopytu a ni\u017e\u0161ej ponuky s\u00fa\u010dasne. E\u0161te neobvyklej\u0161ie je, aby k tak\u00e9muto v\u00fdsledku smerovali dve r\u00f4zne v\u00fdvojov\u00e9 tendencie.<\/p>\n<p>Povstanie na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode vytla\u010dilo ceny ropy a tie ukrajuj\u00fa z k\u00fapnej sily spotrebite\u013eov a z\u00e1rove\u0148 mnoh\u00fdm v\u00fdrobcom zvy\u0161uj\u00fa vstupn\u00e9 ceny. S\u00fa\u010dasne s t\u00fdm japonsk\u00e1 trojit\u00e1 kalamita \u2013 zemetrasenie, cunami a jadrov\u00e1 katastrofa \u2013 nahlodala spotrebite\u013esk\u00fa d\u00f4veru a naru\u0161ila cezhrani\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdrobn\u00e9 re\u0165azce.<\/p>\n<p>Druh\u00e9 ve\u013ek\u00e9 glob\u00e1lne riziko poch\u00e1dza z Eur\u00f3py, kde je v konflikte siln\u00e1 v\u00fdkonnos\u0165 Nemecka s dlhov\u00e1 kr\u00edza na perif\u00e9rii Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie.<\/p>\n<p>V Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch pritom sa op\u00e4\u0165 oslabuje bytov\u00e1 v\u00fdstavba \u2013 \u010do je tretie ve\u013ek\u00e9 glob\u00e1lne riziko. Hoci sa ceny rodinn\u00fdch domov u\u017e strmo prepadli, nedoch\u00e1dza k \u017eiadnemu v\u00fdraznej\u0161iemu odrazu od dna. Ba v niektor\u00fdch oblastiach s\u00fa ceny op\u00e4\u0165 pod tlakom a situ\u00e1cia by sa mohla e\u0161te zhor\u0161i\u0165.<br \/>\n\u010eal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pokles cien rodinn\u00e9ho b\u00fdvania podlom\u00ed d\u00f4veru a zn\u00ed\u017ei v\u00fddavky. Pre Ameri\u010danov v niektor\u00fdch \u010dastiach krajiny bude v d\u00f4sledku toho tie\u017e \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie sa pres\u0165ahova\u0165, \u010do \u010falej zjatr\u00ed probl\u00e9m dlhodobej nezamestnanosti.<\/p>\n<p>Kone\u010dne je tu \u010d\u00edm \u010falej zrete\u013enej\u0161ia fi\u0161k\u00e1lna tiese\u0148 v USA, najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej ekonomike sveta \u2013 ekonomike zabezpe\u010duj\u00facej \u201eglob\u00e1lne verejn\u00e9 statky\u201c nevyhnutn\u00e9 na zdrav\u00e9 fungovanie svetov\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1rstva. Po tom, \u010do USA nasadili agres\u00edvne fi\u0161k\u00e1lne v\u00fddavky, aby zabr\u00e1nili depresii, musia sa teraz prihl\u00e1si\u0165 k vierohodn\u00e9mu strednodob\u00e9mu postupu fi\u0161k\u00e1lnej konsolid\u00e1cie. To feder\u00e1lnej vl\u00e1de aj centr\u00e1lnej banke prinesie ne\u013eahk\u00e9 rozhodovanie a neist\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky.<br \/>\n\u010c\u00edm dlh\u0161ie bud\u00fa USA de\u0148 z\u00fa\u010dtovania odklada\u0165, t\u00fdm v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie riziko bude hrozi\u0165 glob\u00e1lnemu postaveniu dol\u00e1ra ako hlavnej svetovej rezervnej meny a atraktivite americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dnych dlhopisov ako r\u00fddzo \u201ebezrizikov\u00e9ho\u201c finan\u010dn\u00e9ho \u0161tandardu.<\/p>\n<p>Svet u\u017e v minulosti svojho dod\u00e1vate\u013ea glob\u00e1lnych verejn\u00fdch statkov zmenil. Ke\u010f sa to po druhej svetovej vojne stalo naposledy, Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty nahradili spusto\u0161en\u00fa Brit\u00e1nii. Naproti tomu dnes nie je \u017eiadna krajina ochotn\u00e1 a schopn\u00e1 zakro\u010di\u0165, keby sa USA nedok\u00e1zali vzchopi\u0165.<\/p>\n<p>Tieto \u0161tyri rizik\u00e1 s\u00fa podstatn\u00e9 a z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 a v\u0161etky silnej\u00fa. \u017diadne e\u0161te, na\u0161\u0165astie pre glob\u00e1lnu ekonomiku, nie je transforma\u010dnom faktorom a spolo\u010dne zatia\u013e netvoria kritick\u00e9 mno\u017estvo s ni\u010divou silou. T\u00fdm v\u0161ak knehovor\u00edm, \u017ee je glob\u00e1lna ekonomika v bezpe\u010d\u00ed. Pr\u00e1ve naopak, uviazla v dueli medzi hojiv\u00fdmi a zni\u010duj\u00facimi vplyvmi, v ktorom si \u0165a\u017eko m\u00f4\u017ee dovoli\u0165 \u010fal\u0161ie vyostrovanie negat\u00edv.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<div>Autor:\u00a0Mohamed\u00a0El-Erian \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:\u00a0<a title=\"finweb.hnonline.sk\" href=\"http:\/\/finweb.hnonline.sk\/nazory\/c3-51676020-kP0000_d-styri-hrozby-globalnej-ekonomiky\" target=\"_blank\">finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/div>\n<p><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tri roky po celosvetovej finan\u010dnej kr\u00edze zost\u00e1va glob\u00e1lna ekonomika m\u00e4t\u00facim priestorom. Mali by sme \u010derpa\u0165 \u00fatechu z postupn\u00e9ho ozdravovania vyspel\u00fdch kraj\u00edn a z robustn\u00e9ho\u00a0rastuv rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa ekonomik\u00e1ch? Alebo by sme &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/styri-hrozby-globalnej-ekonomiky\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1163"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1163"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1163\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1166,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1163\/revisions\/1166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}