{"id":1139,"date":"2011-04-13T09:46:33","date_gmt":"2011-04-13T09:46:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1139"},"modified":"2011-04-13T09:47:16","modified_gmt":"2011-04-13T09:47:16","slug":"portugalsko-spusta-problemy-spanielska","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/portugalsko-spusta-problemy-spanielska\/","title":{"rendered":"Portugalsko sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a probl\u00e9my \u0160panielska"},"content":{"rendered":"

Po Gr\u00e9cku a \u00cdrsku prich\u00e1dza k z\u00e1chrane Portugalska. Nie je to v\u00f4bec<\/strong> prekvapuj\u00face.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Krajina u\u017e posledn\u00e9 t\u00fd\u017edne \u017eila na absol\u00fatnej hranici svojich schopnost\u00ed. Verejn\u00fd dlh Portugalska nie je pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ek\u00fd a\u00a0dosahuje iba nie\u010do nad 75 percent HDP, pri\u010dom v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina vyspel\u00fdch kraj\u00edn m\u00e1 dlh vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Probl\u00e9mom v\u0161ak je schopnos\u0165 tento dlh spl\u00e1ca\u0165. Portugalsko dosiahlo za posledn\u00fa dek\u00e1du iba minim\u00e1lny ekonomick\u00fd rast na \u00farovni 0,7 percenta. Z\u00e1chrana krajiny preto musela pr\u00eds\u0165 z\u00a0toho ist\u00e9ho d\u00f4vodu ako pri\u0161la v\u00a0pr\u00edpade Gr\u00e9cka \u2013 m\u00e1lo vyspel\u00e1 ekonomika nie je schopn\u00e1 plati\u0165 za svoj dlh. A\u00a0tento syndr\u00f3m ju\u017eanskej neefektivity sa u\u017e \u010doskoro m\u00f4\u017ee prejavi\u0165 aj v\u00a0\u010fal\u0161ej krajine Ib\u00e9rie \u2013 \u0160panielsku.<\/p>\n

Susedove trampoty <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>\u0160panielsko je rozhodne krajina vyspelej\u0161ia, no vn\u00fatorn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov m\u00e1 mnoho. Nezamestnanos\u0165 sa pohybuje nad 20 percentami. Ekonomick\u00fd rast v\u00a0\u0160panielsku bol v\u00fdrazne silnej\u0161\u00ed ako v\u00a0Portugalsku, no bol do ve\u013ekej miery \u0165ahan\u00fd bublinou na trhu real\u00edt. A\u00a0pr\u00e1ve\u00a0t\u00e1to bublina e\u0161te pravdepodobne \u00faplne nepraskla. \u0160tatistiky hovoria, \u017ee od vstupu do euroz\u00f3ny vzr\u00e1stli ceny nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v\u00a0krajine o\u00a0vy\u0161e sto percent. Od svojho vrcholu klesli o\u00a018 percent, \u010do je ve\u013emi m\u00e1lo v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed s\u00a0ostatn\u00fdmi krajinami, ktor\u00e9 dosiahli bublinu na trhu nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. Napr\u00edklad ceny\u00a0real\u00edt v\u00a0USA padli o\u00a030 percent. Pritom na \u0161panielskom trhu sa nach\u00e1dza st\u00e1le viac ako jeden mili\u00f3n nepredan\u00fdch rezidenci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dlh \u0161t\u00e1tu aj \u013eud\u00ed <\/strong><\/p>\n

Hospod\u00e1rsky rast v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti maj\u00fa na pleciach hlavne spotrebitelia a\u00a0vl\u00e1dy. \u0160panielska vl\u00e1da je prin\u00faten\u00e1 v\u00fdrazne \u0161krta\u0165 a\u00a0vplyv jej ekonomick\u00fdch opatren\u00ed bude na ekonomick\u00fd rast z\u00e1porn\u00fd. Rovnako zle s\u00fa na tom dom\u00e1cnosti, ktor\u00e9 maj\u00fa naakumulovan\u00fd dlh v\u00a0objeme viac ako 170 percent HDP a\u00a0v\u00fdrazne n\u00edm prevy\u0161uj\u00fa vl\u00e1du. Podobn\u00fd probl\u00e9m maj\u00fa aj Portugalci, kde dlh dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed predstavuje a\u017e 130 percent ich ro\u010dn\u00fdch pr\u00edjmov. Oba subjekty preto nebud\u00fa prive\u013emi m\u00ed\u0148a\u0165, ale bud\u00fa sa sna\u017ei\u0165\u00a0\u0161etri\u0165. To bude ma\u0165 \u010fal\u0161\u00ed negat\u00edvny vplyv na ekonomick\u00fa v\u00fdkonnos\u0165 a\u00a0zamestnanos\u0165 tak ostane pravdepodobne dlhodobo vysok\u00e1.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0vysok\u00e1 nezamestnanos\u0165 znamen\u00e1 \u010fal\u0161ie tlaky na vl\u00e1dne deficity, a\u00a0\u010do je d\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie \u2013 vysok\u00fa mieru osobn\u00fdch bankrotov. No nie s\u00fa to iba osobn\u00e9 bankroty, ale najm\u00e4 \u00favery poskytnut\u00e9 realitn\u00e9mu sektoru a\u00a0stavebn\u00fdm spolo\u010dnostiam, ktor\u00e9 dosahuj\u00fa takmer 450 mili\u00e1rd eur alebo pribli\u017ene 30 percent HDP krajiny.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0pr\u00e1ve v bankovom sektore existuje paralela s\u00a0\u00cdrskom. Probl\u00e9m so splatite\u013enos\u0165ou \u00faverov bud\u00fa ma\u0165 hlavne \u0161panielske sporite\u013ene \u2013 cajas. Ich bilan\u010dn\u00e9 knihy nes\u00fa mnoho toxick\u00fdch \u00faverov a\u00a0bud\u00fa potrebova\u0165 rekapitaliz\u00e1ciu. Vl\u00e1da hovor\u00ed o\u00a0sume pribli\u017ene 20 mili\u00e1rd eur, no extern\u00e9 odhady sa pohybuj\u00fa a\u017e nad \u00farov\u0148ou 50 mili\u00e1rd. Nehovoriac e\u0161te o\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u0161panielske\u00a0banky\u00a0maj\u00fa vo\u010di Portugalsku poh\u013ead\u00e1vky a\u017e vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 100 mili\u00e1rd. Pri pokra\u010dovan\u00ed probl\u00e9mov Portugalska bud\u00fa r\u00e1s\u0165 aj probl\u00e9my \u0161panielskych b\u00e1nk. A vl\u00e1da nebude ma\u0165 pri svojom \u0161etren\u00ed priestor svojim bank\u00e1m pom\u00f4c\u0165.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednska pomoc <\/strong><\/p>\n

Dobr\u00e1 spr\u00e1va v\u0161ak prich\u00e1dza od nov\u00e9ho z\u00e1chrancu \u0160panielska \u2013 \u010c\u00edny. V\u00fdchodn\u00e1 ve\u013emoc m\u00e1 nak\u00fapen\u00e9 \u0161panielske vl\u00e1dne dlhopisy za 25 mili\u00e1rd eur. \u010c\u00edna sa pravdepodobne u\u017e \u010doskoro stane najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm verite\u013eom \u0160panielska. Jasne je tak vidno trend, kedy krajina \u010derven\u00e9ho draka diverzifikuje svoje dev\u00edzov\u00e9 dr\u017eby z\u00a0dol\u00e1rov, ktor\u00e9 a\u017e pr\u00edli\u0161 r\u00fdchlo str\u00e1caj\u00fa hodnotu, na eur\u00e1. A\u00a0to nie je jedin\u00e1 pomoc. \u010c\u00edna nazna\u010dila, \u017ee je pripraven\u00e1 aj kapit\u00e1lovo vst\u00fapi\u0165 do \u0161panielskych b\u00e1nk.<\/p>\n

Slab\u00ed pracanti <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Vzh\u013eadom na zvy\u0161uj\u00face sa \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby v\u00a0euroz\u00f3ne, rast cien komod\u00edt, spomalenie ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu, ve\u013ekos\u0165 zadl\u017eenia vl\u00e1dy a\u00a0dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, poh\u013ead\u00e1vky vo\u010di Portugalsku a\u00a0ve\u013ekos\u0165 nedobytn\u00fdch \u00faverov sa zd\u00e1, \u017ee aj napriek pomoci \u010c\u00edny sk\u00f4r \u010di nesk\u00f4r bude \u0160panielsko nasledova\u0165 cestu Gr\u00e9cka, \u00cdrska a Portugalska. Moment\u00e1lne mo\u017eno situ\u00e1cia nevyzer\u00e1 a\u017e tak zle, no faktorov, ktor\u00e9 by mohli pom\u00f4c\u0165 \u0160panielsku odrazi\u0165 sa k\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161iemu ekonomick\u00e9mu rastu, nie je ve\u013ea. Svoju rolu tak op\u00e4\u0165 zohr\u00e1 n\u00edzka ju\u017eansk\u00e1\u00a0produktivita pr\u00e1ce. \u0160panielsku sa dok\u00e1zalo dari\u0165 dovtedy, k\u00fdm si dok\u00e1zalo lacno po\u017ei\u010diava\u0165. No tieto \u010dasy s\u00fa u\u017e za nami.<\/p>\n

Napriek tomu st\u00e1le po\u010d\u00favame vyjadrenia politikov o\u00a0tom, \u017ee \u0160panielsko konsoliduje svoje verejn\u00e9 financie a\u00a0jeho situ\u00e1cia je radik\u00e1lne odli\u0161n\u00e1 od situ\u00e1cie v\u00a0Portugalsku. \u010c\u00edm viac ich v\u0161ak budeme po\u010d\u00fava\u0165, t\u00fdm viac sa bude situ\u00e1cia podoba\u0165. Tak ako gr\u00e9cki, \u00edrski alebo portugalsk\u00ed politici do posledn\u00e9ho d\u0148a zapierali, \u017ee potrebuj\u00fa pomoc, rovnak\u00fd scen\u00e1r sa zopakuje aj v\u00a0\u0160panielsku. Finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy v\u0161ak nie s\u00fa naivn\u00ed voli\u010di, ktor\u00ed veria ka\u017ed\u00e9mu s\u013eubu politika…<\/p>\n

Autor: Ronald I\u017eip, \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj:\u00a0finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po Gr\u00e9cku a \u00cdrsku prich\u00e1dza k z\u00e1chrane Portugalska. Nie je to v\u00f4bec prekvapuj\u00face. Krajina u\u017e posledn\u00e9 t\u00fd\u017edne \u017eila na absol\u00fatnej hranici svojich schopnost\u00ed. Verejn\u00fd dlh Portugalska nie je pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ek\u00fd … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1139"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1142,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139\/revisions\/1142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}