{"id":1134,"date":"2011-04-12T09:21:48","date_gmt":"2011-04-12T09:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1134"},"modified":"2011-04-13T09:37:25","modified_gmt":"2011-04-13T09:37:25","slug":"drahe-kovy-nahradia-fiat-peniaze-komentar-dna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/drahe-kovy-nahradia-fiat-peniaze-komentar-dna\/","title":{"rendered":"Drah\u00e9 kovy nahradia fiat peniaze (koment\u00e1r d\u0148a)"},"content":{"rendered":"

V bud\u00facnosti m\u00f4\u017eeme \u010deli\u0165 potopeniu cel\u00e9ho bankov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Ot\u00e1zne je<\/strong> iba kedy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je iba ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu, kedy sa glob\u00e1lny bankov\u00fd syst\u00e9m rozsype. Pre t\u00fdch z n\u00e1s, ktor\u00ed pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa \u017eivot po tejto udalosti, je \u010das zamyslie\u0165 sa nad t\u00fdm, \u010do m\u00f4\u017ee nahradi\u0165 frak\u010dn\u00e9 rezervn\u00e9 banky a papierov\u00e9 peniaze, ale najprv mus\u00edme pochopi\u0165, pre\u010do je modern\u00e9 bankovn\u00edctvo ods\u00faden\u00e9 k z\u00e1niku.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rodky de\u0161trukcie b\u00e1nk le\u017eia vo frak\u010dnom rezervnom syst\u00e9me, pri ktorom banky po\u017ei\u010diavaj\u00fa nieko\u013ekon\u00e1sobok svojho vlastn\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu. Probl\u00e9m s frak\u010dn\u00fdm rezervn\u00fdm bankovn\u00edctvom nast\u00e1va, ke\u010f sa ve\u013ek\u00e9 mno\u017estvo z vkladate\u013eov b\u00e1nk\u00a0rozhodne\u00a0svoje peniaze vybra\u0165 v tom istom \u010dase. Banka je v tom okamihu schopn\u00e1 uspokoji\u0165 iba \u010das\u0165 – frakciu z po\u017eiadaviek. Toto je trval\u00fd stav modern\u00e9ho bankovn\u00edctva.<\/p>\n

\"zlato\"<\/p>\n

Niekde v na\u0161om podvedom\u00ed si tento stav uvedomujeme, ale st\u00e1le ver\u00edme, \u017ee runov na banky sa nedo\u010dk\u00e1me. V s\u00fa\u010dasnej finan\u010dnej kl\u00edme je tak\u00fdto postoj ve\u013emi nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd. S najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou budeme svedkami glob\u00e1lneho poklesu podnikate\u013eskej aktivity, ke\u010f\u017ee infl\u00e1cia, a s \u0148ou z\u00e1rove\u0148 aj \u00farokov\u00e9 miery bud\u00fa nevyhnutne r\u00e1s\u0165. Banky bud\u00fa \u010deli\u0165 eskal\u00e1cii dlhu, v d\u00f4sledku vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov, ktor\u00e9 zlikviduj\u00fa ve\u013ea, ak nie v\u0161etok, zost\u00e1vaj\u00faci kapit\u00e1l. Nane\u0161\u0165astie, schopnos\u0165 vl\u00e1d zakro\u010di\u0165 je teraz limitovan\u00e1, kv\u00f4li bezprecedentn\u00e9mu zhor\u0161eniu vo vl\u00e1dnych financi\u00e1ch od za\u010diatku prvej bankovej kr\u00edzy.<\/p>\n

Medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e1 povaha modern\u00e9ho bankovn\u00edctva zapr\u00ed\u010di\u0148uje, \u017ee aj relat\u00edvne zdrav\u00e9 banky s\u00fa vystaven\u00e9 rizik\u00e1m roz\u0161\u00edrenia dlhovej skazy, ak aj nie priamo, tak prostredn\u00edctvom medzibankov\u00fdch vz\u0165ahov, ktor\u00e9 mali kedysi takisto (aspo\u0148 relat\u00edvne) zdrav\u00fd z\u00e1klad. Kolaps \u00edrskych, portugalsk\u00fdch a \u0161panielskych b\u00e1nk m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l zni\u010di\u0165 britsk\u00e9, franc\u00fazske alebo nemeck\u00e9 banky, a teda v\u0161etko okolo seba. Urag\u00e1n. Hoci by sa teoreticky vl\u00e1dy e\u0161te mohli pok\u00fasi\u0165 banky zachr\u00e1ni\u0165 a zhor\u0161i\u0165 tak svoju u\u017e aj tak katastrof\u00e1lnu situ\u00e1ciu, v tomto pr\u00edpade by to nemali tak\u00e9 \u013eahk\u00e9. Vl\u00e1dy toti\u017eto verejne vykreslili banky a samotn\u00fdch bank\u00e1rov ako diablov, ktor\u00ed si nezasl\u00fa\u017eia \u0161t\u00e1tnu podporu. Z tohto d\u00f4vodu je jedinou mo\u017enos\u0165ou pre centr\u00e1lne banky pokra\u010dova\u0165 v nalievan\u00ed likvidity – nov\u00fdch pe\u0148az\u00ed do finan\u010dn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, aby sa zabr\u00e1nilo defla\u010dn\u00fdm efektom, sp\u00f4soben\u00fdch zni\u017euj\u00facim sa mno\u017estvom bankov\u00fdch \u00faverov. Tieto nov\u00e9 peniaze m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 pod\u013ea centr\u00e1lnych bank\u00e1rov pou\u017eit\u00e9 na podporu slab\u0161\u00edch \u010dlenov bankov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a pod\u013ea keynesi\u00e1nskeho pr\u00edstupu m\u00f4\u017eu poskytn\u00fa\u0165 potrebn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd stimul. Av\u0161ak, ke\u010f\u017ee postupn\u00e9 injekcie nov\u00fdch pe\u0148az\u00ed maj\u00fa st\u00e1le men\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinok, po\u017eadovan\u00e9 mno\u017estvo likvidity sa neust\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje.<\/p>\n

To je d\u00f4vod, pre\u010do centr\u00e1lne banky nem\u00f4\u017eu skoncova\u0165 s tla\u010den\u00edm nov\u00fdch papierov\u00fdch pe\u0148az\u00ed, preto\u017ee zastavenie toku pe\u0148az\u00ed by malo pre sektor komer\u010dn\u00e9ho bankovn\u00edctva fat\u00e1lne d\u00f4sledky. Preto centr\u00e1lne banky nemaj\u00fa in\u00fa mo\u017enos\u0165 ako popiera\u0165, \u017ee infl\u00e1cia sa\u00a0st\u00e1va\u00a0st\u00e1le v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mom, inak by museli zastavi\u0165 tla\u010denie pe\u0148az\u00ed a necha\u0165 \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby r\u00e1s\u0165.<\/p>\n

Povedan\u00e9 naozaj jednoducho, v bud\u00facnosti m\u00f4\u017eeme \u010deli\u0165 potopeniu cel\u00e9ho bankov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a \u00faplnej strate k\u00fapyschopnosti papierov\u00fdch pe\u0148az\u00ed. Frak\u010dn\u00e9 rezervn\u00e9 bankovn\u00edctvo bolo s nami pr\u00edli\u0161 dlho, a tak mus\u00edme zv\u00e1\u017ei\u0165 \u010do ho nahrad\u00ed, bez toho, \u017ee by ktoko\u013evek z n\u00e1s mal bezprostredn\u00fa sk\u00fasenos\u0165 s nejakou inou alternat\u00edvou. Rovnako by sme sa mali zaobera\u0165 ot\u00e1zkou, ako asi chceme, aby vyzeral bankov\u00fd sektor v bud\u00facnosti.<\/p>\n

P\u00f4vodnou funkciou b\u00e1nk bolo bezpe\u010dne dr\u017ea\u0165 vklady depozit\u00e1rov a napom\u00e1ha\u0165 pri platb\u00e1ch svojich klientov. Ak banka po\u017ei\u010dala peniaze, museli to by\u0165 jej vlastn\u00e9 prostriedky a nemohli by\u0165 na p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dku pou\u017eit\u00e9 peniaze z vkladov, ktor\u00e9 jej boli depozit\u00e1rmi zveren\u00e9 na bezpe\u010dn\u00fa \u00faschovu. U\u017e v r\u00edmskom pr\u00e1ve bolo jasne nap\u00edsan\u00e9, \u017ee zobra\u0165 vklad a potom ho pou\u017ei\u0165 na vlastn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely je kr\u00e1de\u017e, a to plat\u00ed pre v\u0161etk\u00fdch z n\u00e1s aj dnes, pokia\u013e nie ste dr\u017eite\u013eom bankovej licencie. Av\u0161ak p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dka inej banke je \u00faplne rozdielna z\u00e1le\u017eitos\u0165, preto\u017ee vz\u0165ah medzi bankami je „ust\u00e1len\u00fd“.<\/p>\n

Existuje ve\u013ea pr\u00edkladov, kedy vl\u00e1dy oslobodili banky od pr\u00e1vnych princ\u00edpov Rimanov, t\u00fdkaj\u00facich sa vkladov, zvy\u010dajne z d\u00f4vodu toho, \u017ee vl\u00e1dam sa t\u00fdm otvorila cesta k po\u017ei\u010diavaniu si v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ieho mno\u017estva pe\u0148az\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mie\u0161anie vkladov, p\u00f4\u017ei\u010diek a bankov\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu takmer v\u017edy kon\u010d\u00ed bankov\u00fdmi krachmi, \u010do je skuto\u010dn\u00fdm precedensom aj pre s\u00fa\u010dasnos\u0165. S\u00favahy b\u00e1nk s\u00fa ve\u013emi prep\u00e1kovan\u00e9 a \u010dasy neist\u00e9: to s\u00fa presne podmienky, ktor\u00e9 kon\u010dia mas\u00edvnym v\u00fdberom vkladov, a preto\u017ee glob\u00e1lny bankov\u00fd syst\u00e9m je u\u017e teraz vo ve\u013emi \u0165a\u017ekej situ\u00e1cii, je naivn\u00e9 si myslie\u0165, \u017ee sa m\u00f4\u017eeme vyhn\u00fa\u0165 celkov\u00e9mu bankrotu, ktor\u00fd sa d\u00e1 jednoducho odvodi\u0165 z hist\u00f3rie \u013eudsk\u00e9ho spr\u00e1vania.<\/p>\n

Bankrot bankov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu nepopiera u\u017eito\u010dnos\u0165 banky ako in\u0161tit\u00facie, ktorej funkciou je stara\u0165 sa o vklady svojich z\u00e1kazn\u00edkov, ale biznis model sa bude musie\u0165 od z\u00e1kladu\u00a0zmeni\u0165. Ke\u010f\u017ee tieto depozity nebud\u00fa m\u00f4c\u0165 by\u0165 v bud\u00facnosti pou\u017eit\u00e9 na poskytovanie p\u00f4\u017ei\u010diek, nebud\u00fa prin\u00e1\u0161a\u0165 \u017eiaden \u00farok; preto s\u00fa papierov\u00e9 meny, ktor\u00e9 str\u00e1caj\u00fa k\u00fapnu silu nevhodn\u00e9 ako uchov\u00e1vate\u013e hodnoty. Jedin\u00fd bezpe\u010dn\u00fd syst\u00e9m bankov\u00fdch vkladov je ten, ktor\u00fd je skuto\u010dne kryt\u00fd zlatom a striebrom. Ak by sme naozaj boli svedkami nov\u00e9ho menov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, pre\u00a0cenu zlata a striebra by to malo \u010falekosiahle implik\u00e1cie. V takom pr\u00edpade by sme sa museli pripravi\u0165 na to, \u017ee „bublina“ na drah\u00fdch kovoch prakticky nikdy nepraskne. Vz\u00e1cne kovy, ako s\u00fa\u010das\u0165 menov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, by si dr\u017eali svoju stabiln\u00fa cenu a pohybovali by sa v \u00fazkom obchodnom p\u00e1sme. To by v\u0161ak tieto kovy museli nadobudn\u00fa\u0165 ove\u013ea vy\u0161\u0161iu cenu, nieko\u013ekon\u00e1sobne vy\u0161\u0161iu ako maj\u00fa teraz. Preto sa mo\u017eno v bud\u00facnosti budeme pozera\u0165 na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny vz\u00e1cnych kovov ako na v\u00fdpredajov\u00e9 a sp\u00e4tne vyhodnot\u00edme, \u017ee tak\u00e9to nie\u010do – zahrnutie drah\u00fdch kovov do menov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, bolo prakticky nevyhnutn\u00e9 a \u017ee sme to vlastne aj o\u010dak\u00e1vali (tzv. hindsight bias).<\/p>\n

Taktie\u017e sa zd\u00e1 ironick\u00e9, \u017ee najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie nebezpe\u010denstvo, ktor\u00e9 ohrozuje n\u00e1\u0161 s\u00fakromn\u00fd\u00a0majetok, okrem infl\u00e1cie, prich\u00e1dza zo strany re\u0161pektovan\u00fdch a regulovan\u00fdch b\u00e1nk. S ich p\u00e1dom, a koncom frak\u010dn\u00e9ho rezervn\u00e9ho bankovn\u00edctva, by sa potreba pre bankov\u00fa regul\u00e1ciu \u00faplne stratila. Ke\u010f\u017ee regul\u00e1cia b\u00e1nk je jedna z dvoch hlavn\u00fdch zodpovednost\u00ed centr\u00e1lnych b\u00e1nk, kolaps papierov\u00fdch mien by z nich spravil celkom nepotrebn\u00e9 in\u0161tit\u00facie, ods\u00faden\u00e9 na z\u00e1nik.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9to scen\u00e1re mo\u017eno budia pocit a\u017e pr\u00edli\u0161nej revolty, av\u0161ak v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina z uveden\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed nie je \u017eiadnou novinkou. U\u017e Henry Ford povedal, \u017ee:\u00a0„Je dobr\u00e9, \u017ee \u013eudia nerozumej\u00fa n\u00e1\u0161mu bankov\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu a monet\u00e1rnej politike. Keby rozumeli, do zajtra r\u00e1na tu m\u00e1me revol\u00faciu.“<\/em><\/p>\n

Autor: Peter Margetiny, analytik Trim Broker \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj:\u00a0finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V bud\u00facnosti m\u00f4\u017eeme \u010deli\u0165 potopeniu cel\u00e9ho bankov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Ot\u00e1zne je iba kedy. Je iba ot\u00e1zkou \u010dasu, kedy sa glob\u00e1lny bankov\u00fd syst\u00e9m rozsype. Pre t\u00fdch z n\u00e1s, ktor\u00ed pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa \u017eivot po … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1134"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1134"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1134\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1137,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1134\/revisions\/1137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}