{"id":1129,"date":"2011-04-11T13:22:36","date_gmt":"2011-04-11T13:22:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1129"},"modified":"2011-04-11T13:23:46","modified_gmt":"2011-04-11T13:23:46","slug":"je-na-striebre-bublina-komoditny-komentar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/je-na-striebre-bublina-komoditny-komentar\/","title":{"rendered":"Je na striebre bublina? (komoditn\u00fd koment\u00e1r)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Striebro prelomilo hranicu 40 USD a mnoh\u00ed veria, \u017ee cesta k absol\u00fatnemu<\/strong> maximu je hotov\u00e1 vec.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Udalosti na trhu \u010falej nahr\u00e1vaj\u00fa komodit\u00e1m, pri\u010dom niektor\u00e9 z nich dosiahli minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 nieko\u013ekoro\u010dn\u00fdch max\u00edm. Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da st\u00e1la pred rizikom, \u017ee sa nedok\u00e1\u017ee dohodn\u00fa\u0165 na rozpo\u010dte a bude sn\u00e1\u010f musie\u0165 pozastavi\u0165 svoju \u010dinnos\u0165, Eur\u00f3pska centr\u00e1lna banka zdvihla prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t od jari 2008 sadzbu a v ob\u013eube s\u00fa tak op\u00e4\u0165 carry trades, pri\u010dom najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed rozdiel n\u00e1jdeme na menovom p\u00e1re AUD \/ JPY, ktor\u00fd od japonsk\u00e9ho zemetrasenie vzr\u00e1stol o 12%.<\/p>\n

Dol\u00e1r klesol vo\u010di ko\u0161u mien na najni\u017e\u0161iu hodnotu od decembra 2009 a pokra\u010duj\u00faca neistota, \u010di sa ekonomika uk\u00e1\u017ee ako dostato\u010dne siln\u00e1 aj bez \u010fal\u0161ej hotovostnej injekcie, vedie k tomu, \u017ee vo\u013en\u00e9 prostriedky sa investuj\u00fa do striebra, zlata, ropy a kukurice.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00farokov\u00fa sadzbu v snahe skroti\u0165 infl\u00e1ciu a dosta\u0165 pod kontrolu objem \u00faverov u\u017e \u0161tvrt\u00fdkr\u00e1t od vla\u0148aj\u0161ieho okt\u00f3bra. \u010ealej potom \u010c\u00edna u\u017e druh\u00fdkr\u00e1t v roku 2011 kv\u00f4li rastu cien ropy na trhoch zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u0161t\u00e1tom kontrolovan\u00fa cenu benz\u00ednu.<\/p>\n

Index CRB za uplynul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 pridal 1,4% a aj ke\u010f sa t\u00fdm, \u010do pridali najviac, nepodarilo prip\u00edsa\u0165 si na komoditn\u00e9 meradl\u00e1 ve\u013ek\u00e9 zisky, pozorujeme, \u017ee naprie\u010d r\u00f4znymi trhmi do\u0161lo k prelomeniu zauj\u00edmav\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00ed. Kontrakt na zemn\u00fd plyn odp\u00edsal 7% po tom, \u010do Americk\u00fd \u00farad pre energetick\u00e9 inform\u00e1cie ozn\u00e1mil jednozna\u010dne medve\u010f t\u00fd\u017edenn\u00fd zmenu z\u00e1sob. Trh sa od bud\u00faceho t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148a op\u00e4\u0165 zameria na tvorbu z\u00e1sob, preto\u017ee zimn\u00e1 sez\u00f3na je na konci a nov\u00e1 produkcia z\u00e1soby len zv\u00fd\u0161i.<\/p>\n

Striebro<\/strong><\/p>\n

Striebro prv\u00fdkr\u00e1t za 31 rokov prelomilo hranicu 40 USD a mnoh\u00ed teraz veria, \u017ee cesta k 50 USD, teda absol\u00fatnemu maximu, je hotov\u00e1 vec. Celkov\u00e9 prostriedky zainvestovan\u00e9 vo fondoch ETF sa dostali na nov\u00e9 maxim\u00e1 a od marcovej korekcie rekordne st\u00fapli. Celkovo ETF fondy teraz dr\u017eia takmer 50 mili\u00f3nov unc\u00ed a s\u00fa o 45% vy\u0161\u0161ie ako pred rokom.<\/p>\n

Investori kupuj\u00fa akcie na striebro a dopyt po strieborn\u00fdch\u00a0minciach\u00a0v \u010c\u00edne a Indii rastie nev\u00eddan\u00fdm tempom. Striebro za uplynul\u00fd mesiac pridalo 12% a za uplynul\u00fd rok 120%, \u010do je naozaj pozoruhodn\u00fd\u00a0v\u00fdkon, preto\u017ee o nedostatku striebra nem\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 re\u010d.<\/p>\n

\"striebro\"<\/p>\n

Hlavnou pr\u00ed\u010dinou v\u00fdvoja ceny striebra teda boli predov\u0161etk\u00fdm pe\u0148a\u017en\u00e9 toky do investi\u010dn\u00fdch fondov, navy\u0161e sa pridali do partie aj hedgeov\u00e9 fondy. Toto m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 tie\u017e jedn\u00fdm z hlavn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov v situ\u00e1cii, kedy rally nabrala smer. Trh so striebrom je aj na\u010falej pomerne\u00a0mal\u00fd\u00a0a vykazuje vysok\u00fa betu so zlatom. To na\u010falej mieri na sever nemenej radostne, ale pam\u00e4tajte, \u017ee na tobog\u00e1ne po ceste hore nasleduje jazda z kopca, po\u010das ktorej sa naber\u00e1 ve\u013ek\u00e1 r\u00fdchlos\u0165.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00e1 konzultantsk\u00e1 firma v oblasti kovov, GFMS, vyjadrila minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 obavy z r\u00fdchleho n\u00e1rastu ceny, nevid\u00ed v\u0161ak d\u00f4vody, pre\u010do by aktu\u00e1lna n\u00e1lada na trhu nemohla cenu vyhna\u0165 a\u017e k 50 USD. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 varovala pred rizikom prudk\u00e9ho poklesu, ak by investori prist\u00fapili k predaju a ponuka by prev\u00e1\u017eila dopyt.<\/p>\n

Zlato<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zlato nasledovalo striebro smerom nahor, dosiahlo nov\u00e9 maximum a vyzer\u00e1 to, \u017ee by mohlo po\u010das druh\u00e9ho \u0161tvr\u0165roku atakova\u0165 hranicu 1500 USD. Pri porovn\u00e1van\u00ed cien oboch kovov je to striebro, ktor\u00e9 na seba p\u00fata pozornos\u0165. Teraz m\u00e1 jedna unca zlata hodnotu 36,5 unc\u00ed striebra, na za\u010diatku roka 2011 to bolo 46 unc\u00ed a pred rokom 63.<\/p>\n

Ropa<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ropa pokra\u010duje v raste a Brent sa dost\u00e1va do nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u00e1sma nad 120 USD za barel, kde by v pr\u00edpade, \u017ee by sa tam udr\u017eala dlh\u0161ie, mohla negat\u00edvne p\u00f4sobi\u0165 na rast svetovej ekonomiky a v d\u00f4sledku toho na pokles dopytu. Posledn\u00fd rast pri\u0161iel napriek tomu, \u017ee ch\u00fdbali nov\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy. Kr\u00edza v L\u00edbyi st\u00e1le nie je vyrie\u0161en\u00e1 a \u010fal\u0161ie zn\u00e1mky toho, \u017ee by sa konflikt rozrastal, nie s\u00fa.<\/p>\n

V Nig\u00e9rii, najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161om africkom producentovi ropy a\u00a0naj\u013eudnatej\u0161ej krajine Afriky, sa 9. a 16. apr\u00edla konaj\u00fa prezidentsk\u00e9 a parlamentn\u00e9 vo\u013eby. Vo\u013eby v rokoch 2003 a 2007 sprev\u00e1dzalo n\u00e1silie a preru\u0161enia\u00a0dod\u00e1vok, a tak trh bude dianie pozorne sledova\u0165.<\/p>\n

Obilniny<\/strong><\/p>\n

Obilniny pokra\u010duj\u00fa od reportu Americk\u00e9ho ministerstva po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstva 31.3. v b\u00fd\u010dom trende. Report uk\u00e1zal ve\u013emi n\u00edzke z\u00e1soby kukurice a s\u00f3jov\u00fdch b\u00f4bov. V\u010faka tomu cena kukurice minul\u00fd mesiac prekonala maximum 7,65 USD za bu\u0161el z roku 2008, preto\u017ee aj napriek skvel\u00fdm podmienkam na pestovanie sa nepodar\u00ed z\u00e1soby doplni\u0165. K rastu navy\u0161e prispieva aj vysok\u00e1 cena zemn\u00e9ho plynu, ktor\u00e1 je proti priemeru z roku 2010 vy\u0161\u0161ia o 34% a v\u010faka ktorej je v\u00fdroba etanolu atrakt\u00edvna. Jedin\u00e9, ako mo\u017eno dopyt po etanole obmedzi\u0165, je necha\u0165 to na prirodzenom procese rastu ceny a\u017e na ranicu, kedy sa pokles dopytu prejav\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0161enica<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0161enica zostala za kukuricou takmer o 9%, preto\u017ee predch\u00e1dzaj\u00faci report priniesol pre z\u00e1soby p\u0161enice lep\u0161ie spr\u00e1vy. V Rusku sa na\u0161lo navy\u0161e 8 mili\u00f3nov ton p\u0161enice a to otv\u00e1ra mo\u017enos\u0165, \u017ee by \u0161tvrt\u00fd svetov\u00fd export\u00e9r mohol zru\u0161i\u0165 z\u00e1kaz v\u00fdvozu. Uk\u00e1zalo sa, \u017ee farm\u00e1ri dr\u017eia v obav\u00e1ch pred rast\u00facimi cenami o 3 mili\u00f3ny ton viac a na juhu krajiny sa v sil\u00e1ch na\u0161lo navy\u0161e 5 ton p\u0161enice, ktor\u00e1 bola pred z\u00e1kazom ur\u010den\u00e1 na v\u00fdvoz.<\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1ce ceny sa navy\u0161e o\u00a0poznanie zn\u00ed\u017eili, preto\u017ee Rusko o\u010dak\u00e1va produkciu a\u017e 85 mili\u00f3nov ton, o 41% viac ne\u017e vlani. Z\u00e1kaz exportu v\u0161ak bude trva\u0165 a\u017e do doby, ne\u017e bude zn\u00e1ma letn\u00e1 produkcie.<\/p>\n

Kakao<\/strong><\/p>\n

Export kakao z Pobre\u017eia Slonoviny by sa mal obnovi\u0165 v priebehu nieko\u013ek\u00fdch\u00a0dn\u00ed. Pod\u013ea Spojen\u00fdch n\u00e1rodov s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd prezident prevzal kontrolu po prezidentovi predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facom, ktor\u00fd je po n\u00e1silnostiach spojen\u00fdmi s prezidentsk\u00fdmi vo\u013ebami, ktor\u00e9 sa konali 28. novembra, uv\u00e4znen\u00fd doma.<\/p>\n

V skladoch je na nalodenie pripraven\u00fdch zhruba 440 000 ton kakaa, z ktor\u00fdch \u010das\u0165 m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 zni\u010den\u00e1. \u0160pekul\u00e1cie o ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu zn\u00ed\u017eili cenu kakaa od marcov\u00e9ho maxima o 19%, \u010do aj po v\u00fdvoji v posledn\u00fdch mesiacoch znamen\u00e1 v ro\u010dnom porovnan\u00ed cenu vy\u0161\u0161iu o 1,2%.<\/p>\n

Autor: Ole Sloth Hansen, Manager Saxo Bank \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj: finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n

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Striebro prelomilo hranicu 40 USD a mnoh\u00ed veria, \u017ee cesta k absol\u00fatnemu maximu je hotov\u00e1 vec. Udalosti na trhu \u010falej nahr\u00e1vaj\u00fa komodit\u00e1m, pri\u010dom niektor\u00e9 z nich dosiahli minul\u00fd t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 nieko\u013ekoro\u010dn\u00fdch … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1129"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1129"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1132,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1129\/revisions\/1132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}