{"id":1045,"date":"2011-04-04T18:11:46","date_gmt":"2011-04-04T18:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1045"},"modified":"2011-04-04T18:13:26","modified_gmt":"2011-04-04T18:13:26","slug":"pred-dverami-stoja-dalsie-krizy-komentar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/pred-dverami-stoja-dalsie-krizy-komentar\/","title":{"rendered":"Pred dverami stoja \u010fal\u0161ie kr\u00edzy (koment\u00e1r)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"farmari\"Kr\u00edza\u00a0bolo asi naj\u010dastej\u0161ie pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 slovo v ekonomike po\u010das posledn\u00fdch troch rokov. Zmen\u00ed sa na tom nie\u010do v priebehu \u010fal\u0161\u00edch rokov? V\u0161etko sa to za\u010dalo finan\u010dnou kr\u00edzou, z ktorej sa potom stala ekonomick\u00e1 a dnes to v Eur\u00f3pe pokra\u010duje dlhovou kr\u00edzou, ktor\u00e1 sa m\u00f4\u017ee na\u0165ahova\u0165 e\u0161te dlho. Ob\u00e1vam sa, \u017ee \u010doskoro vypukne nov\u00e1 kr\u00edza, o ktorej sa u\u017e pomaly za\u010d\u00edna hovori\u0165 a v podstate sa u\u017e aj za\u010dala prejavova\u0165.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1m na mysli potravinov\u00fa kr\u00edzu, ktorej dopad m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed, ako si uvedomujeme. Ceny komod\u00edt a potrav\u00edn za\u010dali r\u00e1s\u0165 enormn\u00fdm tempom a smerom do bud\u00facna ich rast nem\u00e1 \u010do zastavi\u0165. Na jednej strane kvantitat\u00edvne uvo\u013e\u0148ovanie, na druhej strane slab\u00e9 \u00farody a v posledn\u00fdch rokoch sa do toho za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa mie\u0161a\u0165 aj \u010dast\u00e9 pr\u00edrodn\u00e9 katastrofy rozsiahleho charakteru, pri\u010dom ich v\u00fdskyt si dovol\u00edm tvrdi\u0165 za\u010d\u00edna narasta\u0165 exponenci\u00e1lne. V roku 2003 hor\u00fa\u010davy v Eur\u00f3pe, 2004 cunami v Indon\u00e9zii, 2008 zemetrasenie v \u010c\u00edne. V minulom roku to boli zemetrasenie na Haiti, z\u00e1plavy v Pakistane, hor\u00fa\u010davy v Rusku. Tento rok zatia\u013e zemetrasenie v Japonsku.<\/p>\n

Po\u010det katastrof za\u010d\u00edna st\u00fapa\u0165 exponenci\u00e1lnym tempom. Je to n\u00e1hoda? Najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161ie komodity ako s\u00fa ropa, obilie a bavlna s\u00fa \u010doraz \u010dastej\u0161ie vystavovan\u00e9 r\u00f4znym rizik\u00e1m. Vplyv nepriazniv\u00fdch udalost\u00ed ako s\u00fa uveden\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161ie sp\u00f4sobuj\u00fa ve\u013ek\u00fa volatilitu na trhoch a dnes si u\u017e ani sk\u00fasen\u00fd investor netr\u00fafne predpoveda\u0165\u00a0v\u00fdvoj\u00a0ceny nejakej komodity na dlh\u0161ie \u010dasov\u00e9 obdobie. Ropa je narozdiel od obilia a bavlny vy\u010derpate\u013en\u00fdm zdrojom, navy\u0161e jej cenu ovplyv\u0148uj\u00fa nepokoje v arabsk\u00fdch a africk\u00fdch krajin\u00e1ch, dokonca niektor\u00ed hovoria o nadhodnocovaniu mno\u017estva z\u00e1sob ropy v Saudskej Ar\u00e1bii.<\/p>\n

Svet sa asi spolieha na to, \u017ee k\u00fdm sa vy\u010derpaj\u00fa z\u00e1soby ropy a ostan\u00fdch nevyhnutn\u00fdch surov\u00edn, tak dovtedy sa podar\u00ed n\u00e1js\u0165 nov\u00fd zdroj alebo technol\u00f3gia, ktor\u00e1 ho nahrad\u00ed. K tomu v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed d\u00f4js\u0165, aspo\u0148 teda nie tak skoro.<\/p>\n

Rast cien\u00a0potrav\u00edn\u00a0a ostatn\u00fdch komod\u00edt m\u00f4\u017ee nepriaznivo vpl\u00fdva\u0165 aj na ekonomick\u00e9 o\u017eivenie a v\u00fdrazne ho spomali\u0165. Cie\u013eom ka\u017edej politiky je op\u00e4\u0165 na\u0161tartova\u0165 rast zamestnanosti a rozh\u00fdba\u0165 s\u00fakromn\u00fa spotrebu a rast s\u00fakromn\u00fdch invest\u00edci\u00ed. V Eur\u00f3pe v\u0161ak t\u00fato snahu brzdia ozdravn\u00e9 bal\u00ed\u010dky na konsolid\u00e1ciu verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed a to bu\u010f zvy\u0161ovan\u00edm dan\u00ed, alebo zni\u017eovan\u00edm v\u00fddavkov. A zni\u017eovanie v\u00fddavkov je v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou sprev\u00e1dzan\u00e9 prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165an\u00edm zamestnancov vo verejnom sektore, \u010do n\u00e1sledne \u010diasto\u010dne op\u00e4\u0165 za\u0165a\u017e\u00ed rozpo\u010det, preto\u017ee k\u00fdm si t\u00edto \u013eudia nen\u00e1jdu in\u00e9 zamestnanie tak bud\u00fa z\u00e1visl\u00fd od \u0161t\u00e1tnych transferov. K tomu zvy\u0161uj\u00faca sa infl\u00e1cia a to najm\u00e4 pri potravin\u00e1ch za\u0165a\u017e\u00ed na\u0161e pe\u0148a\u017eenky a budeme si musie\u0165 op\u00e4\u0165 zvykn\u00fa\u0165 na pravideln\u00e9 zdra\u017eovanie, k\u00fdm po\u010das kr\u00edzy sme nakupovali potraviny posledn\u00e9 tri roky pribli\u017ene za rovnak\u00e9 ceny.<\/p>\n

Fed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee defl\u00e1cia je zl\u00e1 a \u017ee potrebujeme infl\u00e1ciu na to, aby sme podporili dopyt a zv\u00fd\u0161ili invest\u00edcie a spotrebu obyvate\u013estva. Jednoducho, pod\u013ea nich sa st\u00e1le nach\u00e1dzame pod hranicou produk\u010dn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed, nevyu\u017e\u00edvame v\u0161etky potenci\u00e1lne zdroje, existuje produk\u010dn\u00e1 medzera. Av\u0161ak pod\u013ea nej by nemal produkt r\u00e1s\u0165 r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ako infl\u00e1cia, preto\u017ee moment\u00e1lne ceny minim\u00e1lne k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch prim\u00e1rnych surov\u00edn st\u00fapaj\u00fa omnoho r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie, aj ke\u010f v indexe spotrebite\u013esk\u00fdch cien sa to e\u0161te naplno neprejavilo. V tom pr\u00edpade si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee kr\u00edza z rokov 2008-2009 n\u00e1s vr\u00e1tila sp\u00e4\u0165 na hranicu produk\u010dn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed, resp. k\u00fasok pod \u0148u. To, o \u010do sa sna\u017e\u00ed americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da a Fed, n\u00e1s vr\u00e1ti tam, kde sme boli predt\u00fdm, dokonca infl\u00e1cia m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 e\u0161te nebezpe\u010dnej\u0161ia.<\/p>\n

A v najbli\u017e\u0161om obdob\u00ed pravdepodobne budeme m\u00f4c\u0165 vidie\u0165 v\u00fdsledky QE, ktor\u00e9 s\u00edce nepriamo, ale ur\u010dite podporili ne\u00famern\u00fd\u00a0rast\u00a0cien komod\u00edt a potrav\u00edn. O tom, \u010di sa za\u010dne \u010fal\u0161ie kolo, je ticho, Bernanke s\u00edce zatia\u013e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee QE skon\u010d\u00ed, ale vyzer\u00e1, \u017ee trhy si u\u017e na QE zvykli, tak\u017ee v pr\u00edpade zastavenia to daj\u00fa poc\u00edti\u0165 aj poklesom rastu\u00a0akci\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdmi n\u00e1kladmi pri\u00a0predaji dlhopisov.<\/p>\n

Autor:\u00a0Stanislav\u00a0\u010cervenka \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj:finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kr\u00edza\u00a0bolo asi naj\u010dastej\u0161ie pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 slovo v ekonomike po\u010das posledn\u00fdch troch rokov. Zmen\u00ed sa na tom nie\u010do v priebehu \u010fal\u0161\u00edch rokov? V\u0161etko sa to za\u010dalo finan\u010dnou kr\u00edzou, z ktorej sa potom … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1045"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1045"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1048,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1045\/revisions\/1048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}