{"id":1039,"date":"2011-03-28T12:43:54","date_gmt":"2011-03-28T12:43:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1039"},"modified":"2011-03-28T12:47:26","modified_gmt":"2011-03-28T12:47:26","slug":"eurozona-dorazila-na-krizovatku-smrti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/eurozona-dorazila-na-krizovatku-smrti\/","title":{"rendered":"Euroz\u00f3na dorazila na kri\u017eovatku smrti"},"content":{"rendered":"

Do kedy bude Euroz\u00f3na podporova\u0165 fi\u0161k\u00e1lne ob\u017eerstvo neprisp\u00f4sobiv\u00fdch kraj\u00edn?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Od za\u010diatku roka investori \u010dakali na k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fd summit predstavite\u013eov EU, ktor\u00fd sa konal 24-25. marca v Bruseli. Podstatou malo by\u0165 vytvorenie re\u00e1lnej siete garanci\u00ed a finan\u010dn\u00fdch zdrojov, ktor\u00e9 by kryli fi\u0161k\u00e1lne probl\u00e9my rizikov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn Euroz\u00f3ny zn\u00e1me pod skratkou PIGS (Portugalsko, \u00cdrsko, Gr\u00e9cko a \u0160panielsko). Na za\u010diatku t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148a sa zdalo v\u0161etko v poriadku a posledn\u00e9 stretnutia a dohody ministrov financi\u00ed pod zoskupen\u00edm ECOFINu nazna\u010dovali navr\u0161ovanie efekt\u00edvnych finan\u010dn\u00fdch zdrojov s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho mechanizmu\u00a0EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility, Eur\u00f3psky \u00a0finan\u010dn\u00fd stabiliza\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj) na 440 mld. eur (aktu\u00e1lne vzh\u013eadom k z\u00e1ruk\u00e1m a potrebe garanci\u00ed pre rating AAA je efekt\u00edvna vyu\u017eite\u013enos\u0165 finan\u010dn\u00fdch zdrojov na \u00farovni 250 mld. eur). Z\u00e1rove\u0148 s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 nastavenie EFSF od polovice roka 2013 by mal nahradi\u0165\u00a0ESM (European Stability Mechanism, Eur\u00f3psky stabiliza\u010dn\u00fd mechanizmus) s efekt\u00edvnym\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00fdm r\u00e1mcom 500 mld. eur, pri\u010dom hotovostn\u00fd vklad jednotliv\u00fdch kraj\u00edn mal predstavova\u0165 80 mld. eur splatn\u00fdch v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch troch rokoch.<\/p>\n

\n

V\u0161etci hasia po\u017eiare<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m doh\u00f4d sa v\u0161ak rozsypal ako dom\u010dek z kar\u00e1t po tom, ako v stredu ve\u010der v portugalskom parlamente \u013eavicov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nepresadila potrebn\u00e9 \u0161krty pre rozpo\u010det na nov\u00fd rok, \u010do viedlo k demisii portugalsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra J.Socratesa.\u00a0Portugalci aktu\u00e1lne bez svojho vedenia musia \u010daka\u0165 pre pr\u00edpadn\u00fa \u017eiados\u0165 o finan\u010dn\u00e9 zdroje z eurovalu (EFSF) a\u017e do nov\u00fdch volieb (m\u00e1j resp. j\u00fan). Pri\u010dom u\u017e 15.apr\u00edla maj\u00fa spl\u00e1tku istiny \u00a0a kup\u00f3nu pri svojich emitovan\u00fdch dlhopisoch vo v\u00fd\u0161ke viac ako 5 mld. eur. Portugalsk\u00e9 bezvl\u00e1die a hrozba defaultu krajiny (ak neuhrad\u00ed svoje z\u00e1v\u00e4zky 15.apr\u00edla) sa premietli do zn\u00ed\u017eenia ratingu na dlhodob\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u00e4zky portugalskej vl\u00e1dy. Agent\u00fara Fitch z \u00farovne AA- na A+, agent\u00fara S&P’s z \u00farovne \u00a0A- na BBB, v oboch pr\u00edpadoch s negat\u00edvnym v\u00fdh\u013eadom (hroz\u00ed \u010fal\u0161ie zni\u017eovanie, ktor\u00e9 o\u010dak\u00e1vame u\u017e \u00a0v apr\u00edli). Hlavne pri S&P‘ sa pri \u00farovni BBB je zn\u00ed\u017eenie o \u010fal\u0161\u00ed stupe\u0148 posunom do neinvesti\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u00e1sma (\u201ejunk\u201c). Preto koment\u00e1re portugalsk\u00fdch predstavite\u013eov, \u017ee nepotrebuj\u00fa zahrani\u010dn\u00fa finan\u010dn\u00fa pomoc vyznievaj\u00fa v tomto pr\u00edpade naozaj \u201ekomicky\u201c. Pri neinvesti\u010dnom stupni a pr\u00edpadnom potrebnom haircute (zr\u00e1\u017eke pri kolater\u00e1li) \u00a0i portugalsk\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00e9 banky bud\u00fa ma\u0165 probl\u00e9m sa refinancova\u0165 pri oper\u00e1ci\u00e1ch s ECB. To, \u017ee situ\u00e1cia za\u010d\u00edna by\u0165 extr\u00e9mne v\u00e1\u017ena, nazna\u010duj\u00fa i presakuj\u00face inform\u00e1cie zo z\u00e1kulisia ECB, ktor\u00e1 sa sna\u017e\u00ed vytvori\u0165 program na dlhodob\u00e9 dod\u00e1vanie euro likvidity pre rizikov\u00e9 banky eur\u00f3pskej perif\u00e9rie (prim\u00e1rne \u00cdrsko, ale o\u010dak\u00e1va sa likvidita i pre Portugalsko).<\/p>\n

\u0160ach mat<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina investorov u\u017e re\u00e1lne zapo\u010d\u00edtava mo\u017enos\u0165 pr\u00edpadn\u00e9ho bankrotu Gr\u00e9cka, ktor\u00e9 napriek snahe o \u00fasporn\u00e9 bal\u00ed\u010dky nem\u00e1 vn\u00fatorn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l na splatenie svojich z\u00e1v\u00e4zkov. Najkraj\u0161ie situ\u00e1ciu v euroz\u00f3ne aktu\u00e1lne vystihol \u00a0Ch. Diebel (\u0161\u00e9f analytik Lloyds Bank v Lond\u00fdne) \u201eit\u2019s death by a thousand cuts\u201d. Ide o kolaps (smr\u0165) n\u00e1sledkom tis\u00edcich bodn\u00fdch r\u00e1n, ak si pozrieme v\u00fdvoj na euro dlhopisovom trhu po\u010das piatkovej obchodnej seansy tak nevieme, \u010di \u00fadaje nepatria rizikov\u00fdm krajin\u00e1m Latinskej Ameriky, resp. Afriky. V\u00fdnosy na 10-ro\u010dn\u00fdch \u00a0\u00edrskych dlhopisoch dosiahli \u00a010.05 % p.a., portugalsk\u00e9 \u00a07.63 % p.a. , Gr\u00e9cke \u00a012.56 % p.a., toto sa ned\u00e1 nazva\u0165 inak ako \u201eklinick\u00e1 smr\u0165 Euroz\u00f3ny\u201c, alebo \u201e\u0161ach mat\u201c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Ned\u00f4vera narast\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n

To, \u017ee situ\u00e1cia je naozaj v\u00e1\u017ena si za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa uvedomova\u0165 i ostatn\u00e9 krajiny Euroz\u00f3ny a ich ochota podporova\u0165 \u00a0rizikov\u00e9 krajiny PIGS za\u010d\u00edna nabera\u0165 v\u00e1\u017ene trhliny. Doteraj\u0161ie v\u00fdhrady zo Slovenska o potrebe prerozdelenia k\u013e\u00fa\u010da na hotovostn\u00e9 vklady do ESM nabrali re\u00e1lnej\u0161ie kont\u00fary po aktivit\u00e1ch z Nemecka a F\u00ednska. Slovensk\u00e9 v\u00fdroky zanikali na pleciach k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn Euroz\u00f3ny, ktor\u00e9 financuj\u00fa euroval. A\u017e zatekanie do top\u00e1nok\u00a0Nemecku\u00a0(vl\u00e1dnuca CDU premi\u00e9rky Merkelovej prehrala prv\u00e9 dve krajinsk\u00e9 vo\u013eby v Nemecku, dokonca i v jej rodisku Hamburgu) a rast\u00faca opoz\u00edcia proti podpore rizikov\u00fdch \u00a0kraj\u00edn viedla k zmene r\u00e9toriky nemeckej premi\u00e9rky Merkelovej na summite EU (24-25. marca). Merkelov\u00e1 pri\u0161la prekvapuj\u00faco s po\u017eiadavkou predl\u017eenia splatnosti vkladov (80 mld. euro) z troch rokov na p\u00e4\u0165, \u010do v pr\u00edpade Slovenska znamen\u00e1\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00fd vklad 132 mil. eur (namiesto 330 mil. eur). Z\u00e1rove\u0148 sa zn\u00ed\u017eili i celkov\u00e1 suma Slovenska na akceptovate\u013en\u00fdch 659 mili\u00f3nov eur. V Nemecku m\u00e1me tento v\u00edkend vo\u013eby v \u010fal\u0161\u00edch dvoch spolkov\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch a ak tam merkelovej vl\u00e1dnuca CDU dosiahnu op\u00e4\u0165 zdrvuj\u00face straty je re\u00e1lne, \u017ee podmienky ESM by sa mohli pod tlakom nemeckej strany op\u00e4\u0165 meni\u0165. Podobne ako Nemecko sa skepticky k podpore rizikov\u00fdch kraj\u00edn euroz\u00f3ny postavili i F\u00edni, ktor\u00ed dlhodobo odmietaj\u00fa pomoc t\u00fdmto \u201enestabiln\u00fdm fi\u0161k\u00e1lnym\u201c ekonomik\u00e1m. V\u00fdsledkom je, \u017ee EFSF st\u00e1le figuruje s efekt\u00edvnymi zdrojmi iba na \u00farovni 250 mld. eur a pr\u00edpadn\u00e9 nav\u0155\u0161enie na efekt\u00edvny objem 440 mld. euro sa odklad\u00e1 a\u017e na koniec j\u00fana. Teda po zn\u00e1mych v\u00fdsledkoch volieb v Portugalsku, \u00cdrsku a ve\u013ekej \u010dasti nemeck\u00fdch krajinsk\u00fdch volieb, \u010do nazna\u010duje mo\u017enos\u0165 op\u00e4tovnej neochoty jeho navr\u0161ovania.<\/p>\n

Kri\u017eovatka smrti<\/span><\/p>\n

Summit EU v\u0161ak priniesol aspo\u0148 \u010diastkov\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky bud\u00facnosti ESM, ktor\u00fd od polovice roku 2013 prevezme funkciu a z\u00e1v\u00e4zky po EFSF. \u00daverov\u00e1 kapacita ESM bude 500 \u00a0mld. eur, \u00a0celkov\u00e1 hodnota ESM \u00a0je v\u0161ak 700 mld. eur (200 mld. euro sl\u00fa\u017ei ako rezerva a garantuje rating AAA \u00a0pri emisii dlhopisov). Aj t\u00e1to podoba v\u0161ak m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v\u00fdrazne na\u0161trben\u00e1 ak si pozrieme na v\u00fdvoj v Gr\u00e9cku, ktor\u00e9mu op\u00e4\u0165 hroz\u00ed deficit na \u00farovni 15% HDP a vl\u00e1dny dlh na \u00farovni takmer 160 % HDP. \u00a0Politici EU sa sna\u017eia st\u00e1le dr\u017ea\u0165 pri \u017eivote \u00a0\u201efi\u0161k\u00e1lne m\u00famie\u201c, ktor\u00e9 m\u00f4\u017eu v\u0161ak so sebou stiahnu\u0165 i zdrav\u00e9 \u010dasti Euroz\u00f3ny. \u010coraz \u010dastej\u0161ie sa hovor\u00ed o pr\u00edpadnom riadenom bankrote krajiny (najbli\u017e\u0161ie k nemu m\u00e1 aktu\u00e1lne Gr\u00e9cko), ktor\u00e9 by bolo vyk\u00fapen\u00edm pre finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy, euroz\u00f3nu a v neposlednom rade i pre samotn\u00e9 Gr\u00e9cko. Probl\u00e9m je v\u0161ak \u00a0v potrebe zmeny Lisabonskej zmluvy, ktor\u00e1 neprip\u00fa\u0161\u0165a tak\u00fato mo\u017enos\u0165 a umo\u017e\u0148uje \u201efi\u0161k\u00e1lnym parazitom\u201c \u00a0pokojne pre\u017e\u00edva\u0165. V tomto je v\u00fdrazn\u00fd rozdiel \u00a0medzi legislat\u00edvou v USA a euroz\u00f3ny, ak si spomenieme na riaden\u00fd bankrot americk\u00fdch automobilov\u00fdch \u00a0gigantov GM a Chrysler. V\u00fdsledkom bola postupn\u00e1 konsolid\u00e1cia oboch spolo\u010dnost\u00ed. Preto koment\u00e1re ako zaznievaj\u00fa zo slovenskej politickej sc\u00e9ny, ale \u010doraz \u010dastej\u0161ie i s ostatn\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch kraj\u00edn Euroz\u00f3ny (nemeck\u00fd minister financi\u00ed W. Sch\u00e4uble, eurokomis\u00e1r O.Rehn) by mohli n\u00e1js\u0165 svoju \u017eivn\u00fa p\u00f4du. V \u010dase v\u00fdrazn\u00e9ho fi\u0161k\u00e1lneho upratovania a navr\u0161ovania\u00a0dan\u00ed, je naozaj na zv\u00e1\u017eenie ot\u00e1zka na jednoduch\u00fa ot\u00e1zku \u201e je mor\u00e1lne podporova\u0165 fi\u0161k\u00e1lne ob\u017eerstvo neprisp\u00f4sobiv\u00fdch kraj\u00edn Euroz\u00f3ny?<\/em><\/strong>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Autor: Val\u00e9r Demjan \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Zdroj:finweb.hnonline.sk <\/a><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do kedy bude Euroz\u00f3na podporova\u0165 fi\u0161k\u00e1lne ob\u017eerstvo neprisp\u00f4sobiv\u00fdch kraj\u00edn? Od za\u010diatku roka investori \u010dakali na k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fd summit predstavite\u013eov EU, ktor\u00fd sa konal 24-25. marca v Bruseli. Podstatou malo by\u0165 vytvorenie … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1039"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1041,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039\/revisions\/1041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}