{"id":1028,"date":"2011-03-24T10:03:57","date_gmt":"2011-03-24T10:03:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gold-silver.biz\/sk\/?p=1028"},"modified":"2011-03-24T10:06:53","modified_gmt":"2011-03-24T10:06:53","slug":"matematika-portugalskeho-bankrotu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/matematika-portugalskeho-bankrotu\/","title":{"rendered":"Matematika portugalsk\u00e9ho bankrotu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Portugalsko sa z dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska insolventnosti vyhne len z\u00e1zrakom.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Roz\u0161iruj\u00faca sa dlhov\u00e1 kr\u00edza op\u00e4tovne pln\u00ed titulky, tentokr\u00e1t je dlhov\u00fdm hrie\u0161nikom Portugalsko. Dok\u00e1\u017ee, alebo nedok\u00e1\u017ee t\u00e1to probl\u00e9mov\u00e1 krajina z\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska ufinancova\u0165 svoj dlh? Na to, aby sme mohli zodpoveda\u0165 t\u00fato ot\u00e1zku, tak je potrebn\u00e9 polo\u017ei\u0165 si viacero diel\u010d\u00edch ot\u00e1zok:<\/p>\n

\u010co by stalo, keby Portugalsku nikto nepo\u017ei\u010dal?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Portugalsk\u00fd rozpo\u010det verejnej spr\u00e1vy po\u010d\u00edta na rok 2011 s\u00a0v\u00fddavkami 80,8 mld. eur. Pre cel\u00fd rok 2011 m\u00e1 krajina splatn\u00fd dlhodob\u00fd dlh vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 9,6 mld. a\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd dlh vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 17 mld. eur, ktor\u00fd pl\u00e1nuje plne refinancova\u0165 (splati\u0165 nov\u00fdm dlhom) z\u00a0finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhov. Navy\u0161e deficit verejnej spr\u00e1vy, ktor\u00fd bude musie\u0165 krajina financova\u0165 prostredn\u00edctvom \u010fal\u0161\u00edch p\u00f4\u017ei\u010diek, je napl\u00e1novan\u00fd na \u00farovni 7,9 mld. eur. Pokia\u013e by teda Portugalsku nikto nepo\u017ei\u010dal, tak by jeho v\u00fddavky pre rok 2011 museli klesn\u00fa\u0165 o\u00a034,5 mld. eur, aby nevyhl\u00e1silo bankrot. To by znamenalo zn\u00ed\u017eenie v\u00fddavkov verejnej spr\u00e1vy na 46,3 mld. eur.<\/p>\n

Netreba zab\u00fada\u0165, \u017ee v\u00a0tejto sume s\u00fa zahrnut\u00e9 aj soci\u00e1lne transfery ako d\u00f4chodky, zdravotn\u00e9\u00a0poistenie, \u010di poistenie v nezamestnanosti, vo v\u00fd\u0161ke 38,8 mld. eur, z\u00a0ktor\u00fdch je drviv\u00e1 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina nedotknute\u013en\u00fdch. Portugalsku by tak na ostatn\u00e9 v\u00fddavky pre rok 2011 ostalo z\u00a0jeho pr\u00edjmov zhruba 10 mld. eur, \u010do by nesta\u010dilo ani pokrytie platov \u0161t\u00e1tnych \u00faradn\u00edkov, nie to e\u0161te na \u010fal\u0161ie v\u00fddavky. Z\u00a0toho je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee pokia\u013e by Portugalsku zrazu nikto nepo\u017ei\u010dal, tak by bolo n\u00faten\u00e9 vyhl\u00e1si\u0165 bankrot.<\/p>\n

Je v\u0161ak potrebn\u00e9 doda\u0165, \u017ee dlhov\u00e9 za\u0165a\u017eenie v\u00a0nasleduj\u00facich rokoch je ni\u017e\u0161ie, keby sa \u00faplne teoreticky (v praxi je to nemo\u017en\u00e9) Portugalsko rozhodlo ka\u017ed\u00fd rok splati\u0165, a\u00a0nie refinancova\u0165 svoj dlh, tak by sa v\u00a0\u010fal\u0161\u00edch rokoch n\u00e1klady na spl\u00e1tky istiny portugalsk\u00e9ho dlhu klesali, ako to ukazuje obr\u00e1zok pod t\u00fdmto odsekom. Ni\u010d to v\u0161ak nemen\u00ed na fakte, \u017ee keby v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti Portugalsku nikto nepo\u017ei\u010dal, tak by bolo insolventn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u010co by sa stalo, keby muselo refinancova\u0165 za s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 sadzby?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zatia\u013e s\u00fa v\u0161ak finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy ochotn\u00e9 Portugalsku po\u017ei\u010diava\u0165 prostriedky, av\u0161ak vzh\u013eadom na vy\u0161\u0161ie uveden\u00e9 riziko bankrotu s\u00a0vysokou rizikovou prir\u00e1\u017ekou. Pokia\u013e by si Portugalsko v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti po\u017ei\u010diavalo na desa\u0165 rokov, tak by jeho ro\u010dn\u00fd \u00farok na nov\u00fd dlh dosiahol zhruba 7,5 %. Pre porovnanie, Nemecko, ktor\u00e9 je pre Eur\u00f3pu benchmarkom, by za rovnak\u00fd dlh ro\u010dne zaplatilo 3,2 %. Dok\u00e1\u017ee ale pri s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch sadzb\u00e1ch z\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska ufinancova\u0165 svoj dlh?<\/p>\n

Je potrebn\u00e9 si uvedomi\u0165, \u017ee Portugalsko v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti plat\u00ed na drviv\u00fa v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu svojho star\u00e9ho dlhu podstatne ni\u017e\u0161ie sadzby, ak\u00e9 by platilo, keby si ho muselo po\u017ei\u010da\u0165. \u00darokov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady Portugalska (bez kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho dlhu) pre rok 2011 dosahuj\u00fa \u00farovne 4,7 mld. eur, pokia\u013e by ale krajina na cel\u00fd svoj dlhodob\u00fd dlh platila s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sadzby, tak by ro\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady vzr\u00e1stli na zhruba 8 mld. eur, teda z\u00a02,7 % na 4,7 % HDP. Na daniach pl\u00e1nuje v\u00a0roku 2011 vybra\u0165 Portugalsko zhruba 40,5 mld. eur, 8 mld. eur, ktor\u00e9 by potrebovalo Portugalsko po novom na spl\u00e1tky dlhu, predstavuj\u00fa jednu p\u00e4tinu z\u00a0da\u0148ov\u00fdch\u00a0pr\u00edjmov.<\/p>\n

Tieto \u010d\u00edsla ilustruj\u00fa, ak\u00e9 straty by \u010dakali Portugalsko, keby \u00faroky na portugalsk\u00fd dlh dlhodobo ostali na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovniach. Aby v\u0161ak \u00faroky ostali na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovniach, muselo by Portugalsko zni\u017eova\u0165 v\u00fddavky, aby verejn\u00fd dlh \u010falej nenarastal. Ro\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdpadok prostriedkov disponibiln\u00fdch na m\u00ed\u0148anie by teda musel by\u0165 v\u00fdrazne vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ako len vy\u0161\u0161ie ilustrovan\u00fdch 3,3 mld. eur. Napr\u00edklad keby sa krajina vybrala cestou refinancovania v\u0161etk\u00e9ho splatn\u00e9ho dlhu ale bez deficitn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1renia, \u010do by nemalo na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 verejn\u00e9ho dlhu \u017eiaden vplyv, tak by ro\u010dne muselo o\u017eelie\u0165 dodato\u010dn\u00fdch 7,9 mld. eur, ktor\u00e9 predstavuj\u00fa s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd deficit.<\/p>\n

Navy\u0161e situ\u00e1ciu pre Portugalsko v\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch mesiacoch e\u0161te viac skomplikuje Eur\u00f3pska centr\u00e1lna banka, ktor\u00e1 sa v\u00a0reakcii na infla\u010dn\u00e9 tlaky chyst\u00e1 zvy\u0161ova\u0165 z\u00e1kladn\u00fa \u00farokov\u00fa sadzbu z\u00a0historick\u00fdch min\u00edm na \u00farovni 1 %. T\u00e1 v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti predstavuje bezrizikov\u00fa sadzbu, ku ktorej investori pripo\u010d\u00edtavaj\u00fa rizikov\u00fa prir\u00e1\u017eku,\u00a0financovanie\u00a0portugalsk\u00e9ho dlhu sa tak pravdepodobne e\u0161te viac predra\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010co by sa stalo, keby Portugalsko \u0161etrilo?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokia\u013e by Portugalsko prestalo hospod\u00e1ri\u0165 deficitne, tak by sa ukon\u010dil umelo dr\u017ean\u00fd hospod\u00e1rsky rast v\u00a0krajine, ktor\u00fd bol \u0165ahan\u00fd verejn\u00fdm zadl\u017eovan\u00edm. Za posledn\u00fdch 10 rokov potrebovalo k\u00a0rastu nomin\u00e1lneho HDP o\u00a01 euro 1,75 eur nov\u00e9ho verejn\u00e9ho dlhu, ke\u010f len po\u010das troch rokov v\u00a0poslednej dek\u00e1de r\u00e1stol nomin\u00e1lny HDP krajiny r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ako verejn\u00fd dlh.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00fdto v\u00fdvoj, kedy dlh rastie r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ako HDP je, samozrejme, z\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska neudr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd a\u00a0\u0161etrenie, ktor\u00e9 by v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia priniesli, by mali na HDP presne opa\u010dn\u00fd\u00a0efekt\u00a0ako jeho zvy\u0161ovanie, ekonomika by teda klesala. \u010eal\u0161ie nezadl\u017eovanie sa v situ\u00e1cii, kedy HDP rastie v\u00fdhradne v\u010faka verejn\u00e9mu zadl\u017eovaniu, by v\u0161ak bola politick\u00e1 samovra\u017eda, a\u00a0tak nepova\u017eujem za pravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee sa Portugalsko touto cestou dobrovo\u013ene vyberie.<\/p>\n

Euroval je len do\u010dasn\u00fdm rie\u0161en\u00edm<\/strong><\/p>\n

Najvy\u00fdhodnej\u0161ou alternat\u00edvou pre portugalsk\u00fdch politikov je po\u017eiada\u0165 o\u00a0pomoc z\u00a0eurovalu, \u010do by im jednak prinieslo ni\u017e\u0161ie \u00faroky na dlh, ako platia v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti, a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 aj na\u010falej umo\u017e\u0148ovalo deficitne hospod\u00e1ri\u0165, ke\u010f\u017ee v\u00a0euroz\u00f3ne s\u00fa politici \u0161tedrej\u0161\u00ed ako investori na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch, \u010do ukazuj\u00fa aj podmienky p\u00f4\u017ei\u010dky pre Gr\u00e9cko a\u00a0\u00cdrsko, ktor\u00fdm bola odklepnut\u00e1 pomoc v\u00fdmenou za to, \u017ee ich dlh k\u00a0HDP za\u010dne klesa\u0165 a\u017e po roku 2014, a\u00a0to pri mimoriadne optimistick\u00fdch odhadoch\u00a0rastu\u00a0HDP. Toto je rie\u0161enie, ku ktor\u00e9mu v\u00a0nasleduj\u00facich t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148och, \u010di mesiacoch s\u00a0obrovskou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou d\u00f4jde.<\/p>\n

Hoci s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 podmienky v\u00a0eurovale s\u00fa nastaven\u00e9 tak, \u017ee nen\u00fatia krajiny k\u00a0v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00edm opatreniam a\u00a0euroval je tak len mechanizmom umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00facim zadl\u017ei\u0165 sa viac ako je to mo\u017en\u00e9 priamo na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch, eur\u00f3psky stabiliza\u010dn\u00fd mechanizmus (ESM), ktor\u00fd m\u00e1 vst\u00fapi\u0165 do platnosti u\u017e v\u00a0roku 2013, je u\u017e ale in\u00e1 k\u00e1va. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci neho bude ma\u0165 ESM \u0161tat\u00fat nadraden\u00e9ho verite\u013ea, \u010d\u00edm\u00a0riziko pre priv\u00e1tnych investorov e\u0161te viac narast\u00e1 <\/em>.<\/p>\n

Potom u\u017e Portugalsko bude ma\u0165 len dve mo\u017enosti \u2013 v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u0161etrenie, teda aj zni\u017eovanie dlhu, ktor\u00e9 by sp\u00f4sobilo ekonomick\u00fd pokles, a\u00a0ako som vy\u0161\u0161ie nazna\u010dil je aj politicky m\u00e1lo priechodn\u00e9, alebo bankrot. Ani samotn\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia v\u0161ak krajinu pred bankrotom zachr\u00e1ni\u0165 nemusia, ke\u010f\u017ee pokles HDP, ktor\u00e9 by zni\u017eovanie dlhu prinieslo, by sa negat\u00edvne odrazilo na v\u00fdbere dan\u00ed, z\u00a0ktor\u00fdch sa bud\u00fa plati\u0165 dlhy, a\u00a0tak sa Portugalsko z\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska insolventnosti vyhne len z\u00e1zrakom.<\/p>\n

Autor: Kamil Boros, analytik X-Trade Brokers \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Zdroj:finweb.hnonline.sk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Portugalsko sa z dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska insolventnosti vyhne len z\u00e1zrakom. Roz\u0161iruj\u00faca sa dlhov\u00e1 kr\u00edza op\u00e4tovne pln\u00ed titulky, tentokr\u00e1t je dlhov\u00fdm hrie\u0161nikom Portugalsko. Dok\u00e1\u017ee, alebo nedok\u00e1\u017ee t\u00e1to probl\u00e9mov\u00e1 krajina z\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska ufinancova\u0165 … <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1028"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1028"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1028\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1030,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1028\/revisions\/1030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/investicnyblog.sk\/gsi\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}